COMMERCE DEPUTY SECRETARY SAMPSON'S AND EUR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TALLINN 000294

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/27/2016
TAGS: PREL ETRD CVIS BY UP EN
SUBJECT: COMMERCE DEPUTY SECRETARY SAMPSON'S AND EUR
ASSISTANT SECRETARY FRIED'S MEETING WITH ESTONIAN FOREIGN
MINISTER PAET


Classified By: DCM - Jeff Goldstein
Reasons 1.5 (b) & (d)

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Noting that Estonia would have to decide this fall
on the future of its troop deployment in Iraq, Foreign
Minister Urmas Paet asked visiting Deputy Secretary of
Commerce David Sampson and Assistant Secretary of State Dan
Fried how long the U.S. believes coalition forces will be
necessary in Iraq. Fried responded that the U.S. is careful
to avoid deadlines, but that the way out in Iraq was the way
forward, through progress in the political process and the
development of a stronger Iraqi military. Fried and Sampson
urged the Estonians to share their experience, both in reform
and in dealing with Moscow, with emerging democracies such as
Georgia, noting that the Georgians need the advice. The three
agreed on the need for a realistic approach to Russia,
although Paet noted that as far as Estonian-Russian relations
are concerned it takes two to tango, and the Russians don't
seem to be in the mood to dance. Paet put in a pitch for
progress toward Estonia's inclusion in the Visa Waiver
Program and indicated very clearly that the Estonian
government would like for President Bush to stop in Tallinn,
possibly on the margins of this year's G-8 or NATO summits,
both of which will take place nearby. END SUMMARY


2. (U) On the margins of the state funeral of President
Lennart Meri, Estonian Foreign Minister Paet hosted a meeting
with the U.S. delegation: Commerce Deputy Secretary David
Sampson, EUR Assistant Secretary Dan Fried, and Ambassador
Wos. Paet began by graciously expressing his government's
appreciation for the fact that President Bush had sent a
delegation to the funeral, noting that ours was the only
high-level delegation to come from outside of Europe. Paet
and the U.S. delegation went on to discuss a series of
issues, including Iraq, Afghanistan, Ukraine, Belarus,
Russia, Georgia, US-EU relations, the Visa Waiver Program,
and the Estonians' hope that President Bush will be able to
visit Tallinn this year.

GWOT ISSUES
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3. (C) Deputy Secretary Sampson expressed deep appreciation
for Estonia's support in the Global War on Terrorism.
Assistant Secretary Fried seconded this, noting that in
sending troops to the UK PRT in Helmand, which would be in
the thick of the anti-poppy campaign, the Estonians were
undertaking a tough assignment. Paet responded that the
decision to increase Estonia's presence in Afghanistan from
20 soldiers to 120 was a big step for the country. He noted
that the parliament has extended the mandate for the Estonian
deployment to Iraq until the end of this year. This fall,
Estonia will have to debate next steps, and much will depend
on the UN mandate, the situation on the ground in Iraq, and
the plans of the United States and other leading allies. He
asked how long the U.S. believed the presence of the
multinational forces in Iraq would be necessary. A/S Fried
responded that the U.S. has been careful to avoid setting any
deadlines. The way forward is clear. As the political track
develops -- with the next step the formation, we hope, of a
national unity government -- and the Iraqi military becomes
more capable, then the size and the role of the coalition
forces can be changed. The way out is the way forward,
through success, not cutting and running. Success must be
political, and this is why the U.S. is working so hard to
help the Iraqis form a new government.

THE NEIGHBORHOOD
--------------


4. (SBU) On Belarus, A/S Fried and Minister Paet agreed
that the next step should be sanctions targeted against key
Belarusian political leaders. Paet noted with regret that he
had recently read that Lukashenko had taken his family skiing
in one EU country. Fried, agreed that this was regrettable
and astonishing, stating that the interests of a country's
banking sector should not outweigh the need for the U.S. and
the EU to take a principled stand against leaders who in
today's Europe still throw their opponents into jail. Fried
noted that change in Belarus will take time, but that
meanwhile we need to make our position clear.


5. (SBU) Paet noted that he had just spoken with the Deputy
Foreign Minister of Ukraine, and that Estonia was keenly
interested in the outcome of the Ukrainian election and the
question of what direction Ukraine would now take. A/S Fried

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said that, while the U.S. would work with whatever government
the Ukrainian people choose, we hoped that the next
government would be "a coalition of the orangish variety."
It is possible, Fried added, that the Party of Regions could
reform itself, but he was not yet convinced that this had yet
happened.


6. (SBU) Bringing the discussion around to Russia, A/S
Fried noted that the two paragraphs devoted to Russia in the
new U.S. National Security Strategy were very clear. The
U.S. is concerned about the state of democracy in Russia and
Russia's relations with its neighbors, almost all of which
are complicated. Paet said that Estonia appreciates the
realistic U.S. approach to Russia and is trying to take a
similar approach in its own relations with Moscow.
Unfortunately, "it takes two to tango," and the Russian side
does not seem to be interested in moving forward
constructively. Coming back to Russia later in the
discussion, A/S Fried noted that the G-8 summit will be a
real challenge for Putin, who will have to decide what kind
of Russia he wants to show the world. He concluded by saying
that we will work with Russia where we can and as much as we
can, but we will also push back wherever necessary.


7. (C) Deputy Secretary Sampson noted that Estonia's
history and the legacy of President Meri give the country
important moral authority and urged Estonia to work closely
to help other emerging democracies. Fried noted that during
a recent visit to Georgia he told President Saakashvili that
today Georgia is in the same position that Estonia and Latvia
were in 10 years ago, directly in the focus of Russia's ire.
He advised the Georgians to do the same thing the Estonians
and Latvians had done: refuse to be baited and proceed with
reforms. The Estonians need to work with the Georgians, who
need Estonia's advice. Saakashvili does, and so does the
Minister of Defense, who sometimes is too enthusiastic about
resolving the South Ossetia situation through military means,
which would be a disaster.

ECONOMIC ISSUES
--------------


8. (SBU) Deputy Secretary Sampson expressed admiration for
the "astonishing" economic success Estonia has produced over
the last 15 years. He indicated that the U.S. wants to build
on our current economic and commercial relations, and
promised that the Department of Commerce would be represented
at a high-level at a Baltic investment conference being held
in Riga this May. When the discussion turned to U.S.-EU
economic relations, Paet said that while there are elements
of competition in the relationship, he believes that China
and India, not the U.S., are Europe's main competitors. He
express the hope that this view would drive policy
development in Brussels. Secretary Sampson noted that the
U.S. is working closely with the EU, and believes there is a
great deal of room for cooperative efforts, such as a joint
attempt to deal with IPR problems in third countries. He
urged the Estonians to stand up strongly for such cooperation
in Brussels.

BILATERAL ISSUES
--------------


9. (SBU) Paet also raised two bilateral issues: the Visa
Waiver Program (VWP),and the Estonians' desire that
President Bush visit Tallinn, this year if possible. On the
VWP, Paet noted that this was a very emotional issue. A/S
Fried responded that the VWP roadmap shows a clear way
forward. The key condition is a refusal rate of under 3% for
two years running. There are other conditions as well. The
Estonians have made progress, with the refusal rate for
Estonian citizens now down to single digits. Fried assured
Paet that the President pays close attention to this issue,
and added that he personally believes it would be good for a
Central European country to make it into the VWP to
demonstrate that it can be done. Estonia might be first, but
this would depend to a large extent on the Estonians
themselves.


10. (SBU) Regarding a presidential visit, Paet noted that
President Bush's speech in Riga last May was very important
for Estonia. He pointed out that the President will be back
in this region twice this year, for the G-8 and NATO summits,
and said Estonians would like to see him visit Tallinn as
well. Without reference to possible timing, Ambassador Fried
said he would recommend a visit, but that we would have to
wait and see. (NOTE: No sitting U.S. President has visited
Estonia.)


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11. (U) A/S Fried cleared this message.

WOS