Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06TALLINN1049
2006-11-21 13:54:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tallinn
Cable title:  

ESTONIA: SCENESETTER FOR THE SECRETARY'S TRAVEL TO

Tags:  PREL EN 
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OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHTL #1049/01 3251354
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 211354Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY TALLINN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9277
INFO RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW IMMEDIATE 2457
RUEHRA/AMEMBASSY RIGA IMMEDIATE 2817
RUEHVL/AMEMBASSY VILNIUS IMMEDIATE 6586
C O N F I D E N T I A L TALLINN 001049 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2016
TAGS: PREL EN
SUBJECT: ESTONIA: SCENESETTER FOR THE SECRETARY'S TRAVEL TO
TALLINN NOV 27-28

REF: A. TALLINN 972

B. TALLINN 845

C. TALLINN 968

Classified By: Ambassador Aldona Z. Wos, MD for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L TALLINN 001049

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2016
TAGS: PREL EN
SUBJECT: ESTONIA: SCENESETTER FOR THE SECRETARY'S TRAVEL TO
TALLINN NOV 27-28

REF: A. TALLINN 972

B. TALLINN 845

C. TALLINN 968

Classified By: Ambassador Aldona Z. Wos, MD for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Madam Secretary, I am extremely honored and pleased
to welcome you to Tallinn as part of the President's
historic visit on November 27-28 (Ref A). Estonia is a
steadfast ally and partner with whom we share many common
values. The timing of the visit is excellent - President
Toomas Hendrik Ilves took office on October 9th and the
Parliament will soon debate extension of Estonia's military
mandate in Iraq. The visit will provide assurance that the
United States values Estonia. It will also reinforce
domestic political support for our agenda, including the
Global War on Terror (GWOT) and transformational diplomacy,
and invigorate a new generation of Estonians' interest in
the United States.

During the visit, I recommend that you take any
opportunities that arise to:

-- Convey the strong respect we have for Estonia as a
committed ally and partner;

-- Laud Estonia's strong commitment to fighting the Global
War on Terror and thank Estonia for its deployments in Iraq
and Afghanistan in support of U.S. and NATO objectives;

-- Express hope that Estonia will extend its Iraq mandate
for another year;

-- Praise Estonia's support for new democracies in the
region and encourage intensification of these efforts; and

-- Encourage Estonia to take a more active role in voicing
its support for strong transatlantic ties within the EU and
international fora.


2. (C) Your Estonian interlocutors will want to discuss
concerns over Russia's efforts to exert both political and
economic influence over neighboring countries. They may
ask for your support for a Baltic proposal to continue NATO
air policing through 2018. Finally, they will likely
repeat their case for implementing visa-free travel to the
United States in the context of Estonia's contributions in
the GWOT. FM Paet may reiterate his invitation for you to
attend the Adriatic-Baltic-Atlantic Meeting in Tallinn
February 5-6.

If these issues are raised, I also recommend that you

-- Encourage Estonia to take an active role in the EU on

issues aside from Russia and to continue to develop a more
practical dialogue with Russia;

-- Urge Estonia to work actively to encourage other NATO
members to sign up for Air Policing rotations;

-- Stress ongoing U.S. commitment through the Visa Waiver
Program (VWP) roadmap process to work together to help
bring Estonia closer to meeting current VWP criteria;

-- Regret not being able to attend the Adriatic-Baltic-
Atlantic Meeting for which Foreign Minister Urmas Paet
invited you. (Note: EUR plans to send a representative in
your place. End Note.)

End Summary.


3. (C) The visit will feature meetings with President
Toomas Hendrick Ilves and Prime Minister Andrus Ansip.
President Ilves, who was elected in late September, is very
outspoken and sometimes perceived as haughty. He grew up
in the United States and has placed a priority on
invigorating Estonia's role in European structures,
improving transatlantic relations and unifying EU policy
towards Russia. Prime Minister Ansip is the dynamic leader
of Estonia's three-party coalition government and a very
strong supporter of U.S. foreign policy objectives and
policies. Last fall, he was one of the first foreign heads
of government to visit Iraq. At the lunch, you will be
seated with Foreign Minister Urmas Paet who is also a
staunch supporter of U.S. foreign policy and recently
returned from a visit to Iraq (November 5-6) that the USG

helped to arrange. I recommend you concentrate on the
following themes in your discussions:

Recognizing Estonia as a Staunch Ally
--------------


4. (C) I strongly recommend you express your deep
appreciation for Estonia's active participation in the
GWOT. Despite its small size, Estonia has taken on a
disproportionally large role in foreign operations.
Estonia currently has 280 military personnel deployed
worldwide - close to ten percent of its deployable forces.
In Iraq and Afghanistan, Estonia has suffered a total of 22
wounded and two killed in action. This is a high price for
a country with only 1.35 million people (and 3,800 regular
armed forces.)


5. (C) In Iraq, 34 Estonian soldiers are fighting side-by-
side with American troops outside of Baghdad where they
have participated in some of the toughest counter-
insurgency missions. Estonian soldiers have repeatedly
been praised by General George Casey, Multinational Force
Commander, for their professionalism in the toughest of
situations. Foreign Minister Paet has been vocal in his
support to renew Estonia's presence in Iraq. However,
public support for the Iraq mission is not strong and the
visit will be key in highlighting the importance of
Estonia's contributions to stability in Iraq. The
government has drafted a bill to extend the mission, but
Parliament will vote only after the UN extends its Iraq
mandate.


6. (C) In Afghanistan, Estonian troops are embedded with a
UK-led Provincial Reconstruction Team in Helmand Province.
Helmand is the epicenter for opium production in
Afghanistan and has seen an upsurge in Taliban activity.
Estonia's mission in Afghanistan has a two-year mandate and
the number of troops will rise from 80 to 120 by the end of
this year. The MFA has recently dispatched a diplomat to
Helmand to assess possible development and reconstruction
projects for the Estonians to expand their contribution
beyond military operations. Support for this mission among
the political leadership and within Parliament is strong,
and the government has identified the Afghanistan mission
as its top foreign affairs priority.

Transformational Democracy
--------------


7. (C) In just fifteen years, Estonia has made a remarkable
transition from Soviet shackles to free-market democracy
and from aid recipient to aid donor. In 1994, Estonia was
the first country in Europe to introduce a flat tax system.
Estonia's economic success has been remarkable. This year,
GDP growth is 12% and Estonia has a budget surplus of 2.3%
of GDP. This success gives Estonia undeniable credibility
in promoting reform abroad. It has become a strong
advocate for democracy and freedom in the region. Earlier
this year, the GOE committed to spend $10 million per year
through 2010 on priority partner countries including
Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova and Afghanistan. President Ilves
is planning a working visit to Georgia November 22-24.


8. (C) Immediately following the Prime Minister's meeting
with President Bush, PM Ansip will introduce
several Estonians who are leading the effort to promote
democracy abroad, including Mart Laar, a former prime
minister and current Member of Parliament. Laar is
currently an advisor to Georgian Prime Minister Saakashvili
on democratic and market reforms. As prime minister (1992-
94 and 1999-2000),he was instrumental in securing passage
of key market reforms, including Estonia's flat tax and
privatization of state assets. I encourage you to thank
your interlocutors for their good work and strongly
encourage them to seek out additional ways to intensify
their efforts.

A Reticent Advocate
--------------


9. (C) As is the case with many new EU members, Estonia has
been reticent to press its interests in Brussels too
forcefully or to criticize EU policies, except with respect
to Russia. While Estonia often supports our position on
key issues, it generally voices that support behind the
scenes. Because Estonia's cadre of experts is small, when
it does speak out it is generally only on issues which
directly impact its national interests (i.e. Russia).
Estonia needs to take an active role on issues aside from
Russia to be seen as an objective partner within the EU.

President Ilves has stated his desire for Estonia to become
a "generator of ideas" in Europe and to increase the
influence of new member countries on common EU policy. I
recommend you encourage his efforts.

Reaching out to the Next Generation
--------------


10. (U) Estonia has arrived at a point where its high
school and university students can no longer remember what
Estonia was like under Soviet occupation. The United
States policy of non-recognition - to which older Estonians
still attach great importance - is an abstract concept for
young people here. The hardships of Soviet times are gone;
Tallinn and Tartu are modern, bustling cities; and Estonian
students can study and work in many other EU countries. We
have seen a declining trend in the number of young
Estonians seeking to study, work or travel in the United
States and opt, instead, to do so in other EU countries.
To counter that trend, I have engaged the entire Embassy in
an aggressive public diplomacy campaign to reach out to
young Estonians. I personally have visited more than 78
schools throughout Estonia and spoken to thousands of young
people. These efforts are starting to bear fruit. In
2005, more Estonians traveled to the United States than in
any previous year. The visit will lend great weight to our
efforts.

E-stonia
--------------


11. (C) Time Magazine recently called Estonia - "one of
the most technologically advanced places on the planet."
Estonians are proud of their reputation for high-tech
innovation and e-democracy. People file their taxes
on-line, internet banking is the norm, and Estonians can
even pay for parking with their cell phones. In 2005, for
the first time, citizens could cast ballots electronically.
Prime Minister Ansip will give a lively presentation on
Estonia's e-government initiative and paperless Cabinet
meetings.

Watch Out For
--------------


12. (C) Russia: Estonia's relations with Russia remain
vulnerable to reactionary impulses on both sides (Ref B).
For Estonians, history weighs heavily. In the 1940s, the
Soviets deported tens of thousands of people in several
waves of deportations; many of these people did not survive
life in Siberia. There is scarcely a family in Estonia
that was left untouched by these events. Russia's refusal
to acknowledge the fact of Soviet occupation leaves a
bitter taste. Key obstacles to truly "normal" relations
include discord over an un-ratified border treaty and
Russian accusations - unfounded, we believe - of Estonian
mistreatment of its Russian-speaking minority. The Russian
Duma recently criticized Estonia for considering a bill
that could pave the way for the removal of a Soviet World
War II monument located in central Tallinn. Estonia is
also concerned about Russia's gas monopoly in the region
and its ability to disrupt growing trade flows. However,
large oil shale reserves, which supply about 95 percent of
Estonia's electricity, make the country much less
vulnerable to Russian manipulation of energy supplies.
Estonia has been highly critical of Russia's tactics
against Georgia and Ukraine. President Ilves, who will
visit Georgia just prior to your trip here, has expressed
his keen personal interest in this issue. Additionally,
the Parliament passed a resolution on October 17 condemning
Russia's mistreatment of Georgia and Prime Minister Ansip
personally took President Putin to task over Moscow's
behavior at an EU-Russia dinner on Oct 20 in Finland (Ref
C).


13. (C) Air Policing (AP): AP remains one of the top
military/security priorities for the GOE. It is the most
visible benefit of NATO membership to the Estonian people.
Due to repeated Russian incursions into Estonian airspace
over the years, the government feels that the current
situation is inadequate for Estonia's mid to long-term
needs. The three Baltic countries plan to jointly present
a formal request to NATO for the extension of AP until

2018. After this date, they plan to assume full
responsibility to provide their own air defense. Despite
lack of agreement on specifics, the Baltics are working
together to review all options for doing this. In the mean
time, the Estonians have made it clear that if NATO does
not extend its AP program, the GOE would have to divert
resources from other military operations. This could

result in a reduction in Estonia's contribution to foreign
missions.


14. (SBU) Visa Waiver: Foreign Minister Paet will likely
urge you to commit to extend the Visa Waiver Program to
Estonians. I firmly believe we should find a way to
facilitate Estonia's entry into the Program. In a very
short time, Estonia has come quite far toward meeting the
requirements of the Program. However, although refusal
rates have declined rapidly the last few years, they have
not yet averaged under 3% for two consecutive fiscal years,
as required. We are doing everything we can to simplify
the application process, including instituting an on-line
appointment system and minimizing applicant trips to the
Embassy. This has helped improve perceptions considerably,
but Estonians will not be satisfied until they are treated
the same as "old" EU members.
WOS