Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06TAIPEI3964
2006-11-27 06:41:00
SECRET
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Cable title:  

DPP CANDIDATE FRANK HSIEH ON UPCOMING MAYORAL

Tags:  PGOV PREL TW JA 
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RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
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S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003964 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/2031
TAGS: PGOV PREL TW JA
SUBJECT: DPP CANDIDATE FRANK HSIEH ON UPCOMING MAYORAL
ELECTIONS, DOMESTIC POLITICS, AND TAIWAN-JAPAN RELATIONS


Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003964

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/2031
TAGS: PGOV PREL TW JA
SUBJECT: DPP CANDIDATE FRANK HSIEH ON UPCOMING MAYORAL
ELECTIONS, DOMESTIC POLITICS, AND TAIWAN-JAPAN RELATIONS


Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (S) Summary: DPP Taipei mayoral candidate Frank Hsieh
told the Director on November 22 that his only hope to eke
out a narrow victory on December 9 is if there is a large
enough split in the pan-Blue vote. According to Hsieh, this
would require PFP Chairman James Soong and other minor
candidates together to pick up at least 15-20 percent the
overall vote. In Kaohsiung, Hsieh noted that the DPP still
trails the KMT in the polls. If the DPP loses both Kaohsiung
and Taipei, then DPP Chairman Yu Shyi-kun will step down and
Premier Su Tseng-chang may well also resign. President Chen,
however, will not step down because he does not want to risk
indictment and trial, Hsieh stated, adding that he had
advised the President to consider taking this step. Hsieh
also said he expects Taiwan-Japan relations to improve
quietly under Prime Minister Abe. End Summary.

The Taipei Mayoral Election
--------------


2. (C) Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Taipei mayoral
candidate and former Premier Frank Hsieh told the Director on
November 22 that his slender hopes for victory on December 9
hinge on a possible split in the pan-Blue vote. In addition
to Kuomintang (KMT) candidate Hau Long-bin and himself, there
are four other candidates in the race, Hsieh noted. If these
four together win 20 percent of the vote, then Hsieh said he
will have an opportunity to win, while if their total is
under 15 percent, then he will have no chance. Issues are
not important at this stage of the race. The key factors are
basic party strength -- 65 percent pan-Blue and 35 percent
pan-Green in Taipei -- and the operation of the principle of
dumping a weaker candidate to protect a stronger one.


3. (C) Recent public opinion polls show his support at 23-24
percent, Hsieh noted, but an additional 15 percent should be
added to this figure to account for "hidden DPP voters," who
do not respond to poll takers. That would bring his current
expected vote total to about 40 percent. According to DPP
calculations, PFP Chairman James Soong's current expected

vote total is about 18 percent, but perhaps half of Soong's
supporters will end up voting for Hau on election day as they
"dump Soong to protect Hau." Hsieh projected that in the end
the KMT's Hau Long-bin will win about 42-43 percent of the
votes.

Kaohsiung
--------------


4. (C) Polling is more accurate in Kaohsiung than Taipei,
because the DPP is the ruling party in Kaohsiung and DPP
supporters are therefore more willing to reveal their
preferences to poll takers. As in Taipei, however, some
people who support the DPP do not have the "face" to say so
because of the scandals surrounding President Chen. The
ongoing investigation of Kuomintang Taipei Mayor Ma
Ying-jeou's use of a special mayoral account has had only a
small effect on the races in Kaohsiung or Taipei, Hsieh said.
Another new factor influencing the elections is the sympathy
voters feel for KMT Taichung Mayor Jason Hu and his wife, who
has been in critical condition following a recent serious
traffic accident on the way home from a campaign rally for
the KMT Kaohsiung candidate. DPP candidate Chen Chu is still
about 7-8 percentage points behind KMT candidate Huang
Chun-ying in the polls. Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU)
candidate Lo Chih-ming will be an important factor in the
Kaohsiung election. Lo, who will not quit the race, gains
votes from pan-Blue supporters when he attacks the DPP and
from pan-Green supporters when he attacks the KMT.


5. (C) DPP Chairman Yu Shyi-kun will step down if the DPP
loses the mayoral elections in both Taipei and Kaohsiung on
December 9, Hsieh said. Legislative Yuan (LY) member Trong
Chai, perennial candidate, would likely run in an election
for a new party chairman, and Hsieh confided he might also

TAIPEI 00003964 002 OF 003


run. (Comment: assuming he loses the Taipei elections, of
course. End Comment.) In addition to Yu, Premier Su
Tseng-chang will probably also step down, judging by his

SIPDIS
character and his political needs. Su will be looking for an
opportunity to launch his presidential campaign, and might
choose to step down to take responsibility for a defeat in
the two cities. Hsieh predicted that President Chen will want
to appoint acting Kaohsiung Mayor Yeh Chu-lan as his next
premier.

President Chen
--------------


6. (S) If the DPP loses the two mayoral contests, President
Chen will not step down because he does not want to face
indictment and risk a trial, Hsieh said. The party will not
ask Chen to step down and DPP legislators will not dare turn
against Chen, because taking such a step would cost them
votes in difficult LY elections next year. Hsieh confided to
the Director he had advised President Chen to consider
stepping down and that he was in favor of Chen's stepping
down. Hsieh added, however, that he could not say this
publicly. Based on his long association with Chen, Hsieh
expressed confidence that the President and his wife were
innocent of corruption charges, although they did have a
problem involving political ethics. While not corrupt, the
First Family has been very lax in its behavior, Hsieh
observed. Hsieh also noted that the New Tide faction had
recently held an important meeting, at which a minority
favored leaving the DPP, but most argued they should stay in
the party.


7. (S) The worst time for President Chen has passed, Hsieh
believed. Chen has been weakened politically and while he
can deal with simple issues, he can no longer simply order
the Premier what to do. Although Chen remains in control of
foreign policy and defense, he cannot accomplish major
initiatives like constitutional revision, Hsieh maintained,
adding that the people do not believe Chen can accomplish
anything on the constitution in his final year and a half.
He is promoting this proposal simply to appease his Deep
Green base supporters. Nonetheless, Chen will try to
influence the DPP presidential nomination by maneuvering
behindthe scenes if he does not step down before 2008, Hsieh
suggested. Using the saying "unable to accomplish anything
but liable to spoil everything" to describe Chen, Hsieh
observed that Chen does not have the power to put someone in
the presidency but does have the power to undermine potential
candidates.

Annette Lu, Lee Teng-hui, and the "Third Force"
-------------- --


8. (S) According to Hsieh, Vice President Annette Lu does
not give people a sense of security, and thus has only a
small group of supporters in the DPP. However, former
President Lee Teng-hui supports Chen stepping down and Vice
President Lu becoming President, though Lee does not say this
publicly. Hsieh expects the influence of Lee, who is in poor
health, to gradually decline. Lee, who has a strategic
outlook, hopes to promote a third force in Taiwan politics,
but this will not be easy. According to Hsieh, a third force
can only materialize if some current legislators, passed over
in nominations for election to the reduced size legislature
next year, join together.

The DPP Next Year
--------------


9. (S) There are two factors key to improving the DPP's
situation next year, Hsieh suggested. One is that President
Chen's case does not worsen. Public support for Chen in
public opinion polls is now about 20 percent, and this could
potentially rise to 30 percent. Second, the DPP needs to
coordinate with the TSU to ensure there will be only one
pan-Green candidate, either DPP or TSU, in each LY election
district. In the absence of such coordination, there could

TAIPEI 00003964 003 OF 003


be two pan-Green candidates, and both would lose.

Taiwan-Japan Relations
--------------


10. (C) The Director noted Hsieh's meeting one day earlier
with former Japanese Prime Minister Mori. Taiwan-Japan
relations have improved, Hsieh observed; Prime Minister Abe
and his advisors are pro-Taiwan. Although substantive
relations will continue to improve, Japan will not openly
support Taiwan because of the importance of China. Abe wants
to improve Japan's relations with China for political reasons
but understands this improvement has limits. Japan will
pursue a two-handed strategy toward China of improving and
hedging relations.

Comment
--------------


11. (S) Hsieh's chances of winning Taipei remain low, though
as he notes he still has a long shot if Soong stays in the
race and wins enough votes. The race in Kaohsiung is much
tighter. If the DPP loses Kaohsiung as well as Taipei on
December 9, there is sure to be a resurgence of the anxiety
and criticism within the party that have repeatedly surfaced
over the past year. Frank Hsieh's perspective is colored by
his ambition to play a leading role in DPP politics after
Chen is gone. Hsieh is obviously therefore frustrated by the
conundrum Chen's personal problems have thrust both him
personally, and the party writ large, into in recent months.
YOUNG