Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06TAIPEI3589
2006-10-19 11:29:00
SECRET
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Cable title:  

LEGISLATIVE YUAN SPEAKER WANG JIN-PYNG ON ARMS

Tags:  PGOV MCAP PREL TW 
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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2675
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 5804
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 8179
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 8136
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON 1577
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RUEHGZ/AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU 9643
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 7019
RUEHGH/AMCONSUL SHANGHAI 0464
RUEHSH/AMCONSUL SHENYANG 5433
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHHJJAA/JICPAC HONOLULU HI
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RHHMUNA/USPACOM HONOLULU HI
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003589 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/19/2031
TAGS: PGOV MCAP PREL TW
SUBJECT: LEGISLATIVE YUAN SPEAKER WANG JIN-PYNG ON ARMS
PROCUREMENT AND TAIWAN POLITICS


Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003589

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/19/2031
TAGS: PGOV MCAP PREL TW
SUBJECT: LEGISLATIVE YUAN SPEAKER WANG JIN-PYNG ON ARMS
PROCUREMENT AND TAIWAN POLITICS


Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (S) Summary: LY Speaker Wang Jin-pyng (KMT) told the
Director on October 19 that party leaders in the LY have
agreed to put the supplementary budget bill on arms
procurement on the LY agenda for review next week. The
regular defense budget, which also includes arms procurement,
has already been sent to committee for review, Wang added.
On domestic politics, Wang blamed the Presidential Office for
provoking pan-Blue legislators into launching disruptive
protests on October 10 by the steps it took to isolate the
legislators. Wang argued that plans by KMT Chairman Ma
Ying-jeou, a mainlander, to campaign intensively in heavily
Taiwanese Kaohsiung will be counterproductive and may cost
the KMT the mayoral election. In Taipei, Wang expects the
pan-Blue voters to line up behind a single candidate, quite
possibly PFP Chairman James Soong, on the eve of the
election. Wang informed the Director in confidence that
President Chen has asked him to become Premier as soon as
possible. Wang said he is still considering the offer and
observed that Ma Ying-jeou is opposed, fearing that as a
result of this maneuver Wang, rather than he, might become
President in 2008. End Summary.

Movement Expected on Arms Procurement
--------------


2. (C) The Director discussed the arms procurement issue and
domestic politics with Legislative Yuan (LY) President
(Speaker) Wang Jin-pyng on October 19. Wang informed the
Director that the Executive Yuan (EY) has agreed to withdraw
the special arms procurement budget, that cross-party
agreement has been reached to send the supplementary defense
budget (from last June) through the Procedure Committee to
the Defense Committee for review, and that the regular annual
defense budget has already been sent to committee for review.
Earlier the same day, Wang said, he had held inter-party
consultation at which agreement was reached that the LY
Procedure Committee next Tuesday (Oct. 24) will vote to send
the supplemental defense budget on arms procurement to
committee for review. The People First Committee insisted on

adding a condition, that approval of NTD 200 million for a
submarine study will not imply approval for the much larger
submarine budget item in the annual defense budget request.
The supplementary budget also includes NTD 1.6 billion for
P-3C aircraft and NTD 3.6 billion for PAC II upgrades, Wang
noted.


3. (C) Noting that the annual defense budget includes
funding for PAC-III missiles, Wang stressed that pan-Blue
legislators will not approve PAC-III funding prior to March
20, 2007. In their view, the failure of President Chen's
2004 missile referendum precludes the procurement of PAC-III
until two years after the referendum. Wang told the Director
he would welcome the government submitting a supplementary
budget request for PAC-III to the LY after March 20 next
year. Asked about Ma Ying-jeou's earlier statement to the
Director that Wang would be opposed to considering a PAC-III
supplementary budget request (septel),Wang responded that
this was simply not true; he would not oppose such a request.
Wang added that Ma had not touched on this particular issue
with him, only asking that PAC-III not be considered before
March 20, 2007. Ma does not have a good enough understanding
of the LY, Wang added.

October 10 National Day Disruptions
--------------


4. (C) Turning to the disruptions led by pan-Blue
legislators at the October 10 national day ceremony, Wang
recalled that Presidential Office Secretary General Mark Chen
had asked him on October 1 whether this year's ceremony could
be called off out of security concerns. Wang then met with
the National Security Bureau (NSB),Ministry of Justice
Investigation Bureau and others, but while they expressed
general concern about the large number of demonstrators

TAIPEI 00003589 002 OF 003


expected outside the ceremony perimeter, they were unable to
provide any intelligence on actual security threats.
Subsequently, Wang had received calls from Vice President Lu
and Mark Chen and a visit from the NSB Director, but no one
had specific information about any security threat. It
appeared they were simply concerned that protesters would
insult President Chen at the ceremony, but Wang decided that
was not a justification for canceling the ceremony.


5. (C) Wang noted he had received assurances from the Shih
Ming-te camp and KMT legislators but not from the PFP.
Subsequently, KMT and PFP legislators met the evening of
October 9 after having seen the arrangements for their
participation in the ceremony. They were incensed on
learning that they were being seated in side areas rather
than the central stands, contrary to established practice,
and they were further outraged that the Presidential Office
had put up a large white cloth on each side of the central
stands that entirely blocked their view of President Chen and
the actual ceremony. These measures were disrespectful to
the LY members, Wang argued, and that provoked their stronger
than expected protest. However, Wang noted, the disruptions
had not delayed the ceremony, and he had told the
Presidential Office that President Chen's participation had
given the people an opportunity to release their anger.
(Comment: Wang, as Grand Marshal of the Double Ten Ceremony,
was clearly defensive on these disruptions, hence arguing
that his responsibility stopped at ensuring security for the
event, but left him not culpable for the unruly protests that
ensued. End Comment.)

Mayoral Elections in Taipei . . .
--------------


6. (C) Wang predicted that PFP Chairman James Soong's
decision to run for Taipei Mayor will have only a limited
effect on pan-Blue unity because voters will line up behind
the stronger pan-Blue candidate on the eve of the election.
Though far ahead now, KMT candidate Hau Long-bin's poll
numbers will go down. Soong's numbers may go up, creating a
competitive race between Hau and Soong, and it is not clear
who will win. While Soong has hope, DPP candidate Frank
Hsieh has no chance, Wang suggested, owing to Taipei's
population structure. The pan-Green base is just 30 percent,
compared to 60 percent for the pan-Blue. Because the
pan-Blue will not split down the middle, whoever wins the
most pan-Blue votes will win the election, Wang predicted.
(Comment: Wang was present at Soong's October 17 announcement
of his candidacy, and has all but declared his endorsement of
the ex-KMT heavy. In some respects, Hau and Soong can now be
seen as proxies in the ongoing Ma-Wang rivalry. End Comment.)

. . . and Kaohsiung
--------------


7. (C) The Kaohsiung mayoral election will be very close,
Wang predicted, and may well be decided by just ten thousand
votes. Ma plans to spend much time campaigning in Kaohsiung,
which Wang claimed will be counter-productive. DPP candidate
Chen Chu will run on a platform of Taiwanese autonomy.
Campaign appearances by Ma, a mainlander, will stir up
Kaoshiung's DPP supporters, and the DPP will capitalize on
the issue of "mainlanders bullying Taiwanese," causing swing
voters to shift toward the DPP. KMT candidate Huang
Chun-ying does not want Ma to go to Kaohsiung, Wang asserted.
Asked about his own plans, Wang responded, Ma is going to
Kaohsiung, so why should I go?

The Shih Ming-te Movement
--------------


8. (C) Wang suggested it was too early to predict the future
of the Shih Ming-te movement, though he acknowledged that it
has gradually been losing force. Shih, whom Wang visited in
the hospital, told Wang that he would continue his protests.
The movement will be reorganizing itself, Wang expected.


TAIPEI 00003589 003 OF 003


Little Support for No Confidence Vote and Timing Not Ripe
-------------- --------------


9. (C) KMT legislators are overwhelmingly opposed to calling
a no confidence vote against Premier Su Tseng-chang, Wang
noted, adding that he has said repeatedly that now is not the
time for such a move. Only 14 of 90 KMT legislators
expressed support for a no confidence vote, and 2 or 3 of the
14 supported the proposal only because they believed it would
not pass. Following a successful no confidence vote, Wang
explained, President Chen might dissolve the LY. This could
lead to a constitutional crisis because the legislation is
not yet in place to hold an election for the restructured LY.
This could result in a disaster for Taiwan: an extended
period with no LY and President Chen ruling as he pleased.

Wang as Premier?
--------------


10. (S) Wang informed the Director in confidence that
President Chen has asked him through intermediaries to become
Premier as soon as possible, adding that President Chen wants
to eliminate Su Tseng-chang, the current Premier. Wang said
he has not yet responded to this offer. Ma Ying-jeou is very
much against the idea and unwilling to talk about it
reasonably because of his concern over the possibility Wang
might become President in 2008. At the end of September,
Wang continued, KMT Honorary Chairman Lien Chan had asked Hsu
Li-teh to urge Ma not to be selfish and to take Wang Jin-pyng
to the various political parties to seek their support.


11. (S) Wang said he would have several conditions before
accepting appointment as Premier. First, it would have to be
clear he was not responsible for Su stepping down. Second,
there could not be any impression that he was going to divide
the pan-Blue. There would need to be wide agreement and also
support from society that his appointment was in the
interests of political stability. According to Wang, James
Soong, Lee Teng-hui, and the Non-Partisan Solidarity Union
all support his becoming Premier. The DPP should support him
and he would not need to bring in the KMT. If appointed,
Wang said, he would select the best people from all parties
for his cabinet. His third condition for accepting the
premiership, Wang said, was that President Chen would have to
devolve power to him. This was a sticking point, and there
were differences on how this would work. Wang said President
Chen's people were pressing him to make a quick decision but
he would not act carelessly.

Comment
--------------


12. (S) Wang's news on the defense budget was quite
positive, representing the first breakthrough toward LY
approval of the arms procurement package initially offered by
President Bush in 2001. The well-known friction between Wang
and Ma came through clearly in this discussion. Wang, the
ultimate insider, has his hand in on all sides of the Taiwan
political spectrum, ranging from James Soong to President
Chen. Wang's remarks suggest he would like to be premier and
is trying to make it happen, in part because he believes he
could use the position to further his presidential ambitions
against rival Ma Ying-jeou. For now we are going to take the
Missouri "Show me" State attitude toward Wang's emerging as a
consensus Premier, though it certainly would suit anti-Ma
figures James Soong and Lee Teng-hui if he did.

YOUNG