Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06TAIPEI2480
2006-07-24 09:00:00
CONFIDENTIAL
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Cable title:
TAIWAN FRETTING OVER NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS
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C O N F I D E N T I A L TAIPEI 002480
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/21/2031
TAGS: PGOV TW NU
SUBJECT: TAIWAN FRETTING OVER NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS
Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, Reason 1.4 (b/d)
C O N F I D E N T I A L TAIPEI 002480
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/21/2031
TAGS: PGOV TW NU
SUBJECT: TAIWAN FRETTING OVER NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS
Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, Reason 1.4 (b/d)
1. Action request--see paragraph 8.
2. (C) Summary: Taiwan MOFA official Ko Jai-son expressed
concern to AIT that multiple candidates opposing Sandinista's
Daniel Ortega in the November Nicaraguan presidential
election would give the election to Ortega, resulting in a
switch in diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing. Ko
urged the US to encourage the anti-Sandinista candidates to
cooperate and field a single candidate against Ortega. End
Summary.
3. (C) Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) Director
General for Central and South American Affairs Jai-son Ko
requested a meeting with AIT on July 19 to express concern
that the recent death of Daniel Ortega's Sandinista rival
gives the Sandinistas a good chance to win a slim victory in
the upcoming election. Ko cited polls obtained by MOFA that
show Ortega's standing has risen to 30 percent, a six point
advantage over his nearest challenger, Eduardo Montealegre,
and nine points ahead of Montealegre's rival for the
anti-Sandinista vote, Jose Rizo.
4. (C) Ko asked the US to convince Montealegre to accept a
recent proposal from Rizo that calls for the candidate lowest
in the polls at a mutually agreed date to withdraw from the
race. Ko said MOFA has sent instructions to TECRO to pursue
this issue with DOS and is confident that if Taipei and the
US can persuade Montealegre to accept the proposal then the
anti-Sandinistas will remain in power.
5. (C) Ko told AIT that Venezuelan influence in Nicaragua is
growing and could further tilt the election in Ortega's
favor. Ko claimed Venezuela has been helping the Sandinistas
shore up support among rural voters by providing the
Sandinistas with cheap fertilizer and other oil products to
distribute throughout the countryside. Ko further commented
these are the same tactics Taipei has seen Venezuelan
President Chavez use with Nicaragua's neighbors to expand
Venezuela's clout in the region.
6. (C) Ko added that for now the PRC has not meddled in the
Nicaraguan elections, but noted that MOFA is watching
carefully developments in the wake of exchanges between the
PRC Foreign Minister and Costa Rican, Nicaraguan, and
Honduran representatives that were brokered by the Mexican
Foreign Minister in May. Ko said at the meeting in Mexico
City the PRC threatened the three countries would "get no
economic benefits in the future" from the PRC if they
continue to recognize Taipei. Ko said Mexico is working to
arrange further meetings between representatives from the
three countries and the PRC at the UN, but Nicaragua has so
far refused to attend after taking the PRC comments in Mexico
as an "insult."
7. (C) Despite MOFA concerns over the future of its formal
diplomatic ties to Nicaragua and other Latin American allies,
Taipei continues to push an aggressive economic diplomacy by
promoting free trade agreements with partners in the region.
Last week Taiwan's cabinet approved a newly-signed FTA with
Nicaragua, which is the third FTA Taiwan has negotiated with
its allies, following Panama and Guatemala.
Comment and Action Request
--------------
8. (C) MOFA officials expect that a Sandinista government
will switch recognition to the PRC and result in the loss of
a key diplomatic ally in Central America for Taiwan. AIT
would appreciate Department guidance on discussing this issue
with Taiwan officials.
YOUNG
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/21/2031
TAGS: PGOV TW NU
SUBJECT: TAIWAN FRETTING OVER NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS
Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, Reason 1.4 (b/d)
1. Action request--see paragraph 8.
2. (C) Summary: Taiwan MOFA official Ko Jai-son expressed
concern to AIT that multiple candidates opposing Sandinista's
Daniel Ortega in the November Nicaraguan presidential
election would give the election to Ortega, resulting in a
switch in diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing. Ko
urged the US to encourage the anti-Sandinista candidates to
cooperate and field a single candidate against Ortega. End
Summary.
3. (C) Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) Director
General for Central and South American Affairs Jai-son Ko
requested a meeting with AIT on July 19 to express concern
that the recent death of Daniel Ortega's Sandinista rival
gives the Sandinistas a good chance to win a slim victory in
the upcoming election. Ko cited polls obtained by MOFA that
show Ortega's standing has risen to 30 percent, a six point
advantage over his nearest challenger, Eduardo Montealegre,
and nine points ahead of Montealegre's rival for the
anti-Sandinista vote, Jose Rizo.
4. (C) Ko asked the US to convince Montealegre to accept a
recent proposal from Rizo that calls for the candidate lowest
in the polls at a mutually agreed date to withdraw from the
race. Ko said MOFA has sent instructions to TECRO to pursue
this issue with DOS and is confident that if Taipei and the
US can persuade Montealegre to accept the proposal then the
anti-Sandinistas will remain in power.
5. (C) Ko told AIT that Venezuelan influence in Nicaragua is
growing and could further tilt the election in Ortega's
favor. Ko claimed Venezuela has been helping the Sandinistas
shore up support among rural voters by providing the
Sandinistas with cheap fertilizer and other oil products to
distribute throughout the countryside. Ko further commented
these are the same tactics Taipei has seen Venezuelan
President Chavez use with Nicaragua's neighbors to expand
Venezuela's clout in the region.
6. (C) Ko added that for now the PRC has not meddled in the
Nicaraguan elections, but noted that MOFA is watching
carefully developments in the wake of exchanges between the
PRC Foreign Minister and Costa Rican, Nicaraguan, and
Honduran representatives that were brokered by the Mexican
Foreign Minister in May. Ko said at the meeting in Mexico
City the PRC threatened the three countries would "get no
economic benefits in the future" from the PRC if they
continue to recognize Taipei. Ko said Mexico is working to
arrange further meetings between representatives from the
three countries and the PRC at the UN, but Nicaragua has so
far refused to attend after taking the PRC comments in Mexico
as an "insult."
7. (C) Despite MOFA concerns over the future of its formal
diplomatic ties to Nicaragua and other Latin American allies,
Taipei continues to push an aggressive economic diplomacy by
promoting free trade agreements with partners in the region.
Last week Taiwan's cabinet approved a newly-signed FTA with
Nicaragua, which is the third FTA Taiwan has negotiated with
its allies, following Panama and Guatemala.
Comment and Action Request
--------------
8. (C) MOFA officials expect that a Sandinista government
will switch recognition to the PRC and result in the loss of
a key diplomatic ally in Central America for Taiwan. AIT
would appreciate Department guidance on discussing this issue
with Taiwan officials.
YOUNG