NEW DOCUMENTS RAISE CONCERNS ABOUT POSSIBLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SUVA 000064

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/17/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR ASEC FJ
SUBJECT: NEW DOCUMENTS RAISE CONCERNS ABOUT POSSIBLE
ILLEGAL MILITARY ACTION IN FIJI

REF: SUVA 0057

Classified By: Ambassador Dinger for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D)


1. (C) Summary. The Australian High Commissioner to Fiji,
Jennifer Rawson, passed us copies February 17 of two
documents that raise concerns about Republic of Fiji Military
Forces (RFMF) Commander Frank Bainimarama's intentions in the
run-up to this year's planned elections in Fiji. Both
documents were given by the RFMF to Police Commission Andrew
Hughes, an Australian national. It is unclear if Bainimarama
meant for Hughes to receive both documents. He specifically
directed his staff to give Hughes only the first, a letter
the Commander had written to Vice President Ratu Joni
Madraiwiwi, dated February 14, 2006, that details RFMF
complaints against the government and calls for the delay of
elections until a census is conducted. At some recent point,
Bainimarama also reportedly has asked the President to
dissolve Parliament, an act the President may not have the
constitutional authority to take. The second document,
titled "Doctrine of Necessity," argues that under certain
circumstances extra-constitutional action by the military
would be justified. Hughes reportedly plans to share the
documents with his boss, the Minister of Home Affairs. We
have scanned the two documents into our classified system and
are e-mailing them to EAP/ANP. See paragraphs 10-12 for our
instant analysis of possible ramifications, with more to
follow as the situation unfolds. End Summary.

Letter to the Vice President; Verbal Request for
President to Dissolve Parliament
-------------- ---


2. (C) The letter from Bainimarama to Vice President Ratu
Joni Madraiwiwi states that the RFMF "would like to express
its dissatisfaction and disappointment on the general state
of affairs in the country." The letter lists a series of
complaints about the current government including: perception
of widespread corruption, failure of Fiji's electoral system,
deterioration of the rule of law, and the government's
attempt to destabilize the RFMF. The letter reiterates the
point Bainimarama made to the Ambassador and visiting EAP/ANP
Director Krawitz February 14 (reftel),that unless a census
is conducted, the general elections should not be held.
Unless there is a census, "the upcoming elections will not be
contested on a fair and democratic basis and it will deprive
the people of Fiji a truly democratically elected
Government."


3. (C) According the Rawson, at some point recently
Bainimarama asked for the Acting President to dissolve
Parliament and arrange for a temporary government to be put
in place while a census is undertaken. Ratu Joni told Rawson
that he will send a written response to Bainimarama stating
that in the present circumstances the President has no
authority to dissolve the government or order a census be
undertaken.

Doctrine of Necessity
--------------


4. (C) The document titled "Doctrine of Necessity" appears
to be an RFMF-prepared think piece on extra-constitutional
options and justifications. It begins by referring to the
Supreme Court of Pakistan, which after the military takeover
in that country, "declared that when the state of affairs in
the country deteriorate (sic) to such an extent (crisis
situation) where there is no constitutional provision to
provide a remedy, extra constitutional measures can be taken
under the doctrine of necessity." The document enumerates
the evidence that the Court relied upon to determine if a
crisis situation existed in Pakistan and notes the Court's
finding that General Musharraf acted for the welfare of the
people in taking over the government.


5. (C) In subsequent pages, the document discusses "the
prevailing political, legal and social conditions in Fiji."
It notes that a census has not been conducted, questions the
independence of the Elections Office, and states that many
voters are disenfranchised. Under "Collapse of the Rule of
Law" the document attacks the proposed Reconciliation Bill,
stating that it is unconstitutional and will result in
amnesty for persons convicted of treason and others not yet
charged. The document charges that the Supreme Court is
biased, and notes a rift in the Judiciary. It states that
"ethnic considerations are now utilized to appoint judicial
officers and these have been carried out unopposed by the
President of the Fiji Law Society (who is Graham Leung) and

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the PSC." It claims the government is filled with
corruption. Finally, the document states the government has
attempted to destabilize Fiji's military forces "by way of
administrative action and trying to incite members of the FMF
to rise against the Commander and those loyal to him."


6. (C) The final page of "Doctrine of Necessity" lists a
number of actions to be taken "in the event
extra-constitutional steps are taken." Steps include:
appoint an interim administration, members of which will not
contest the next elections; inform the public as to why such
action was taken; give assurances to the business community
to ensure stable commercial and economic activity; and seek
assistance from the international community in order to
undertake a census and electoral reform.


7. (C) Hughes told Rawson he doesn't know if Bainimarama
meant for him to see the "Doctrine of Necessity" document,
whether it was given to him accidentally, or whether an RFMF
staffer intentionally gave it to him without the Commander's
orders. Rawson says the document clearly is contemporary,
since it refers to issues like the census, and the alleged
attempt to incite members of the military "to rise against
the Commander." (Comment: The document, at times, uses the
same wording as the letter to the Vice President. On the
other hand, the document always speaks of the military in the
third person, and refers to the "FMF" instead of the "RFMF"
as used in the letter. We cannot say for sure, therefore,
that the RFMF drafted the document. End comment.)

Hughes Shows Documents to Vice President; Reportedly
Plans to Share with Minister of Home Affairs
-------------- --------------


8. (C) Rawson arranged a meeting between Ratu Joni and
Hughes February 16, at which time Hughes showed the Vice
President the two documents. Ratu Joni said he had received
the letter from the Commander, but not the "Doctrine of
Necessity" document. After seeing the latter document, Ratu
Joni told Hughes "if this weren't so serious, this would be
laughable."


9. (C) Hughes told Rawson that, as Commissioner of Police,
he feels duty-bound to share the "Doctrine of Necessity" with
his boss, the Minister of Home Affairs. He has not yet done
so, because he wants his police "intelligence section" to do
some checking into the document. Rawson said Hughes will
pass the document to the Minister sometime next week.

Comment: What Next?
--------------


10. (C) If and when Hughes passes the documents to his
minister, the PM will become aware, if he is not already, of
Bainimarama's ponderings about removing the Government. Our
sense is that the President and Vice President are the most
likely actors to convince Bainimarama to contain his
frustrations. The PM has no influence over the Commander.
But how might the PM calculate his options, assuming the
President and VP do not resolve the matter? That probably
depends on the PM's judgment regarding Bainimarama's actual
ability to act. Some wonder if the RFMF would back its
Commander in illegal action, especially against the
ethnic-Fijian PM. It is probable that nobody knows for sure.


11. (C) Thus, Bainimarama and Qarase may both be in
situations of rolling the dice. For Bainimarama, to order
his troops risks their refusal to follow. If he were to
succeed, it also clearly would trigger international negative
reaction detrimental to Fiji's military reputation and
tourism economy. Bainimarama knows that. For the PM, to
remain silent and continue on the course toward an early
election (late April, per reftel),would carry a risk of
rapidly triggering a Bainimarama attempt. For the PM, to
publicize the Commander's threat, or to seek to prosecute him
(with the documentary evidence which could appear a smoking
gun) would be betting that the RFMF troops and the public
would back the Government at crunch time. But for the PM to
attempt to delay elections long enough for a census would
likely result in illegally continuing the current Government
beyond its November expiration. It would also be a glaring
display of political weakness.

12 (C) As seems always the case in Fiji, the
political-military mix is extremely complicated. We will
provide further analysis as the situation unfolds.
DINGER