Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06SUVA591
2006-12-28 18:43:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Suva
Cable title:  

FIJI UPDATE 12/29: ELECTION INQUIRIES; GOVERNMENT

Tags:  PREL MARR PHUM ASEC CASC FJ 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO6108
PP RUEHPB
DE RUEHSV #0591/01 3621843
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 281843Z DEC 06
FM AMEMBASSY SUVA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3628
INFO RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY 1481
RUEHPB/AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY PRIORITY 1070
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON PRIORITY 1263
RUEHNZ/AMCONSUL AUCKLAND PRIORITY 0283
RUEHDN/AMCONSUL SYDNEY PRIORITY 0688
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI PRIORITY
RHHJJAA/JICPAC HONOLULU HI PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SUVA 000591 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/29/2016
TAGS: PREL MARR PHUM ASEC CASC FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI UPDATE 12/29: ELECTION INQUIRIES; GOVERNMENT
PLANS; INTIMIDATION; ECONOMIC COMPLEXITIES; AN UNCERTAIN
2007 APPROACHES

REF: A. SUVA 589 (AND PREVIOUS)


B. SUVA 544

Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D).

Summary
-------
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SUVA 000591

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/29/2016
TAGS: PREL MARR PHUM ASEC CASC FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI UPDATE 12/29: ELECTION INQUIRIES; GOVERNMENT
PLANS; INTIMIDATION; ECONOMIC COMPLEXITIES; AN UNCERTAIN
2007 APPROACHES

REF: A. SUVA 589 (AND PREVIOUS)


B. SUVA 544

Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D).

Summary
--------------

1. (C) The Fiji military (RFMF) plans to unveil on Jan. 1
"proof" of irregularities in last May's general elections,
based in part on evidence from an Australian conman. RFMF
Commander Bainimarama says an interim government may be in
place by the end of January. The RFMF has continued to abuse
human rights activists; but some, including in the legal
community, still are speaking out. Lawsuits against the
military are in the works. Bainimarama is attempting to
sideline the Great Council of Chiefs. He is now attempting
to "clean up" the sugar and mining industries, not easily
accomplished. Tourism and construction sectors are
struggling. We comment regarding RFMF double standards
regarding "clean ups;" difficulties the military will face as
it dabbles in commerce and finance; and continuing
uncertainties about the public mood. End summary.

A New Year's revelation re fraudulent elections?
-------------- ---

2. (SBU) An Australian conman, Peter Foster, has been in Fiji
police custody for several months, pending trial for alleged
internet fraud and financial crimes. Last week, RFMF troops
suddenly and without court permission removed him from a Suva
hotel, where police were detaining him under court order.
Military spokesman Leweni had denied any RFMF knowledge of
Foster's whereabouts, but yesterday he showed up in Suva
under Army escort. Foster says he agreed to cooperate with
the "clean up" campaign investigation of Fiji's May elections
and has described illegal payments made to several Qarase
ministers. The RFMF has now indicated Foster's revelations
will figure prominently in a planned New Year's day expose
that "reveals all" about how Qarase's SDL Party "fixed" the
elections.

Interim government by end of January?
--------------

3. (U) In a media statement on 12/27, Bainimarama said the

military advisory council has culled the list of applicants
for an interim government to 31 names, and an effort is now
under way to contact people about actual availability.
Bainimarama said that, if all goes smoothly, an interim
government may be in place by the end of January. We hear
from a U.S. Census contact that three Fiji officials remain
scheduled to visit the U.S. next month to continue
preparations for Fiji's 2007 census. Bainimarama has
indicated an accurate census followed by a redrawing of
electoral constituencies would be pre-requisites for any
future election.

RFMF intimidation; Bainimarama threat
--------------

4. (U) RFMF intimidation efforts continue. Per reftel, Army
troops abused six pro-democracy advocates early on Christmas
morning, reportedly including by aiming loaded firearms at
people's heads and by inflicting beatings. Early yesterday
morning, Fiji's "disco queen" pop singer received similar
abusive treatment. Those detained were all released after a
few hours. Several have fled Suva; some have hunkered down.
Fiji Labor Party (FLP) leader Chaudhry released a letter he
has written to Bainimarama urging the Army to allow people
"to express their views within reason and without inciting a
breach of the peace." The letter also calls on those
speaking out to "bear in mind" ugly situations that developed
in 2000, suggesting "there are elements out there who would
not hesitate to create disorder should there be any slackness
on the part of law enforcement authorities." One of the
activists abused on Christmas morning was the granddaughter
of FLP President Koroi. In a media statement on 12/27,
Commodore Bainimarama reiterated RFMF warnings that "if
people speak against us, we see it as a threat; and people
will be treated accordingly."

Some NGOs and lawyers keep speaking up
--------------

5. (C) Still, some local NGOs continue to call publicly for
rule of law, and several have expressed strong displeasure
with Fiji Human Rights Commission Director Shaista Shameem,
who has made a series of public statements indicating people

SUVA 00000591 002 OF 003


should accept that their rights are curtailed during the
RFMF's "state of emergency." NGOs are reportedly meeting in
Suva today to discuss next moves. The Fiji Law Society and
prominent attorneys Richard Naidu and Jon Apted have noted,
accurately, that Fiji's Constitution permits constraints on
people's human rights only in very limited circumstances and
only via a public law passed by Parliament. They stress that
the RFMF's very vague and self-proclaimed "emergency decree"
does not meet the constitutional tests, so people's rights to
speech, assembly, etc., ought to remain sacrosanct.

Bainimarama and GCC: no reconciliation yet
--------------

6. (U) In Bainimarama's 12/27 media statement, he announced
that the Great Council of Chiefs (GCC) will have to receive
RFMF permission for any future meetings, reflecting the
Commodore's disappointment that the results of the GCC
meeting last week did not conform to RFMF expectations. GCC
Chair Bokini has reportedly rejected the Army's ability to
impose such a restriction, though it also appears Bokini is
not anxious to call another meeting. RFMF spokesman Leweni
continues to state that the military has no intention of
engaging in dialogue with the Chiefs, contrary to some
indications late last week.

Meddling in sugar industry; law suits coming
--------------

7. (U) Bainimarama has announced a major shake-up of
governing bodies over Fiji's sugar industry, by sacking the
heads of both the Sugar Cane Growers Council and the Fiji
Sugar Corporation. The FSC boss took the news calmly. The
Cane Growers boss, Jaganath Sami, who the day before had been
chastised by the RFMF for having engaged in public criticism
of military actions, issued a public letter challenging
Bainimarama's legal right to interfere. Another Cane Growers
official queried who will pay up when Sami challenges his
dismissal in court and wins. The Fiji Law Society has told
the press it is aware of several law suits being prepared by
Qarase's SDL Party and by individuals who have suffered from
RFMF intimidation. Qarase confirmed publicly today that he
plans legal action, which awaits his intended return to Suva
in a few weeks.

Mining intervention, too
--------------

8. (U) Bainimarama has named a group of government CEOs to
negotiate with Emperor Gold Mining Ltd, owners of Fiji's only
producing gold mine concerning EGM's announcement Dec. 5, the
day after the coup, that the Vatukuola mine is unprofitable
and is being closed down. Bainimarama said the negotiators'
mandate is to run the gamut from looking into EGM's motives
to discussing safety nets for 1730 miners and their families.

Tourism: striving for cash flow
--------------

9. (U) Fiji's tourism association is gearing up super
specials in an attempt to attract back Australian and New
Zealand tourists. With New Zealand having scaled back its
travel warning (to approximately the equivalent of the
current U.S. warning),some tourist agents in Auckland are
reporting a great deal of interest. So long as there is no
outburst of street violence, it may be that tourism numbers
will start a bounce back from the abysmal levels at present;
however, the super specials will likely generate very little
profit. A popular cruise operation in Fiji's West reports
its special deals are garnering just enough returns to keep
cash flowing, nowhere near enough for longer-term
sustainability.

Construction in deep slow-down
--------------

10. (U) The head of one of Fiji's biggest construction
companies reports that his industry's prospects are dismal,
with a number of major projects postponed indefinitely.
Reportedly, real estate prices have also declined
dramatically, at least in the short term.

Comment
--------------

11. (C) The RFMF's New Year's revelations about the 2006
elections will be interesting. Reports have circulated for
several months that Peter Foster provided some advice, and
perhaps funding, to some SDL party officials in the past.
That did not deter prosecutors, in the Qarase era, from

SUVA 00000591 003 OF 003


bringing charges against him. By all accounts, Foster, with
a criminal record on three continents, is not a person to be
trusted. If the RFMF has cut a deal with him in exchange for
revelations, it will be one more bit of evidence that the
current "clean up" campaign relies on very situational
ethics. Of course, the RFMF's nasty intimidation tactics
against human-rights activists buttress that point.


12. (C) Bainimarama's interventions into the sugar and mining
industries are intriguing. A huge, seven year, F$350 million
(US$200 million) EU assistance package for Fiji sugar in the
works with the Qarase Government is now on hold. The gold
mine has reportedly been a marginal enterprise for a while.
Direct RFMF involvement in those economic sectors may provide
a rapid education in how difficult it can be to impose
military demands in a competitive, globalized economic
environment. Also, a number of RFMF pronouncements,
prominently the cancellation of a VAT increase, suggest there
has been little thought given to balancing the Fiji
Government checkbook either. Fiji's fiscal situation in 2007
could rapidly deteriorate from an already precarious position
(see ref B).


13. (C) It is very difficult to gauge what the "public" mood
is four weeks after the coup. Certainly a number of people
have written letters to the editor and have granted media
interviews that support the RFMF's clean-up motives and
express the wish that activists should quit complaining and
just go along. While it appears the early Christmas morning
abuse of activists shocked many, nobody seems prepared, yet,
to challenge the Army in the streets, peacefully or
otherwise. That may indicate broad-based, if grudging,
acceptance that guns win. Or it could simply be timing. The
holiday season is always a quiet, family-based period in
Fiji. As the new year brings immense political and economic
challenges, the military's governance abilities will be
tested, as will the people's patience. The continuance of
armed check points and intimidation tactics indicates the
RFMF remains nervous.
DINGER