Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06SUVA57
2006-02-15 21:16:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Suva
Cable title:  

FIJI UPDATE: ELECTIONS, CIV-MIL RELATIONS, ETC.

Tags:  PREL PGOV MARR FJ 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO8849
RR RUEHPB
DE RUEHSV #0057/01 0462116
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 152116Z FEB 06
FM AMEMBASSY SUVA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2900
INFO RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 1141
RUEHKL/AMEMBASSY KUALA LUMPUR 0021
RUEHPB/AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 0770
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON 0936
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0239
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHHJJAA/JICPAC HONOLULU HI
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SUVA 000057 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/15/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI UPDATE: ELECTIONS, CIV-MIL RELATIONS, ETC.

REF: SUVA 26

Classified By: Amb. Dinger; Sections 1.5, B and D.

Summary
--------
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SUVA 000057

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/15/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI UPDATE: ELECTIONS, CIV-MIL RELATIONS, ETC.

REF: SUVA 26

Classified By: Amb. Dinger; Sections 1.5, B and D.

Summary
--------------

1. (C) Fiji's general election may take place as early as
late April. Political parties are gearing up. Opposition
leader Chaudhry seems satisfied that complaints about
electoral-registration are being resolved. Elections
Commissioner Leung is confident a free and fair election can
take place. However, Republic of Fiji Military Forces (RFMF)
Commander Bainimarama is convinced the coming elections are
already irretrievably rigged. He told us he intends to
ensure the elections are postponed, preferably by Fiji's
civilian leadership. We comment that both Bainimarama and
the opposition Labor Party seem to take a relativistic view
of "rule of law" when it comes to removing the current Qarase
Government. If elections are imminent, Bainimarama will have
to decide rapidly how to proceed. He knows full well the
negative consequences of ordering an illegal act, including
on relations with the U.S. Bainimarama wants a legal way out
and will push for a civilian solution. If that doesn't
happen to his satisfaction, tensions such as flamed in
January may well recur.


2. (C) The dialogue between Bainimarama and Qarase mediated
by Acting President Madraiwiwi in January (reftel) is
ongoing. Qarase sees it as positive; Bainimarama says it is
useless. President Iloilo's recent announcement that he will
seek a second term pleased Bainimarama and disappointed
Qarase. The PM's controversial reconciliation bill probably
will not be enacted prior to early elections. Fiji's Police
Commissioner reports that former PM Rabuka is likely to be
indicted shortly on charges related to unrest in 2000.
Others under investigation, including prominent Fiji
diplomats, may escape prosecution. End Summary.


3. (C) The visit of EAP/ANP Director Krawitz to Suva Feb.
13-15 provided an opportunity to meet with senior Fiji
leaders, including Jioji Kotobalavu, CEO in the Prime
Minister's Office; Isikeli Mataitoga, CEO in the Ministry of
Foreign Affairs; Opposition Leader Mahendra Chaudhry;

Commander of the RFMF Frank Bainimarama; Police Commissioner
Andrew Hughes; and Elections Commissioner Graham Leung. The
following paragraphs are distilled from those conversations.

Election in late April?
--------------

4. (C) Police Commissioner Hughes said he had just heard
definitively from Home Affairs Minister Vosanibula that
Fiji's general election will take place in late April. PM
CEO Kotobalavu was more coy, noting the election could come
anytime before August, with school holidays (to free up
polling space) being shifted as necessary. Elections
Commissioner Leung said he had informed the PM that necessary
preparations could be in place by end of April. Commander
Bainimarama currently believes the election will be later
than May.

Parties gearing up; election-registration complaints fading
-------------- --------------

5. (C) Even without a formal signal, political parties have
been gearing up. Chaudhry's Fiji Labor Party (FLP) held its
first election rally late last week. Chaudhry told us the
FLP has selected all its candidates and is already focusing
attention on the key constituencies it must win in order to
take power. Chaudhry has publicly complained for months
about alleged election-registration malfeasance. He told us
he is currently satisfied with Elections Office efforts to
correct problems. Leung acknowledged there has been some
evidence of nepotism and ineffectiveness at lower levels of
the elections machinery, but he said the latest registration
figures indicate some 92% of eligible voters have registered,
and the percentage is about the same for both of Fiji's major
ethnic groups: Fijians and Indians.

Intense Bainimarama concern about rigged election
-------------- --------------

6. (C) RFMF Commander Bainimarama is convinced, however,
that the coming election has already been irredeemably rigged
by PM Qarase and his SDL Party. As evidence, Bainimarama
noted to us that Fiji's last census was in 1996, and the
mandatory, ten-yearly one for 2006 has been delayed. Leung
told us the delay is because "the system" was not adequately
prepared to conduct a census in time for the coming 2006

SUVA 00000057 002 OF 003


election. Bainimarama, on the other hand, reported that his
brother, who runs the statistics office, has been ready and
willing to proceed on the census (which would take at least 6
months) but has been stymied. Bainimarama believes that,
absent a proper census, there is no way electoral boundaries
can be properly set and it is impossible to judge whether all
eligible voters have been registered. Leung, who is admired
by both Government and opposition leaders for his integrity
and who is a close friend of Acting President Madraiwiwi,
believes a fair election can be run despite the lack of
current census figures.


7. (C) When we noted to Bainimarama that Fiji law requires
an election to take place before November, making a census at
this point almost impossible, he responded that something
will have to be done. He made clear his view that Fiji
cannot weather an election which wrongly places the current
Qarase Government in office for another 5 years. When we
reiterated USG views of the importance of the rule of law and
civilian control, Bainimarama responded that he does not
necessarily have to be the one who forces an electoral
postponement. He suggested that an interim government could
be installed, pending proper preparation of elections. We
asked if he has conveyed his concerns to Acting President
Madraiwiwi. Bainimarama said he had met yet again with
Madraiwiwi on Feb. 14 and had indeed raised his concerns.
((Note: our understanding of Fiji law is that the general
election must take place by November 2006.))

A comment: the rule of law and relativity
--------------

8. (C) One of the mystifying aspects of Commander
Bainimarama is his strong advocacy of the rule of law when it
comes to prosecuting those who instigated the 2000 coups, but
his apparent willingness to contemplate RFMF illegal action
to remove the current government if it fails to meet his
expectations. He does not at all appear to crave a military
government though. He has suggested the intended outcome, if
necessary, would be to install an interim civilian government
pending new elections. Leadership of the opposition FLP
seems to have a similarly relativist approach. The FLP
President, Mrs. Koroi, openly admitted to Fiji TV during the
civil-military crisis in January that she would find it
acceptable for the RFMF to remove the Qarase government and
replace it with the pre-2000 Chaudhry government, to restore
the previous status quo. Chaudhry publicly backed away from
Mrs. Koroi's statement at the time; but privately he seemed
to imply to the Ambassador and Krawitz that it might be
justifiable for the RFMF to remove the Qarase government and
install an interim replacement, pending fair elections.

PM-RFMF dialogue: mixed reviews
--------------

9. (C) We heard from CEO Kotobalavu that the dialogue
between PM Qarase and Commander Bainimarama, which both
parties agreed to in a Jan. 16 meeting mediated by Madraiwiwi
(reftel),is taking place every two weeks and has been
useful. Kotobalavu suggested it is an outlet for the
emotional Bainimarama to vent his feelings. When we asked
Bainimarama his view of the dialogue, he said it has been of
no use at all.

President Iloilo now seeks a second term - ramifications
-------------- --------------

10. (C) A few days ago, Fiji President Iloilo announced
that he is prepared to take a second term, to begin in March.
This was rather a surprise, since rumor had it that the
85-year-old, who is in poor physical health, aspired to
retire to his village. Acting President Madraiwiwi has
informed us that Iloilo does not expect to serve another
entire 5-year term, but he thinks he can add stability during
a troubled time for Fiji, including for the coming elections.
Bainimarama, who has had President Iloilo's support at
crucial times, is very pleased by the news. CEO Kotobalavu
gave us a clear impression the PM is much less enthusiastic.
Kotobalavu blamed the RFMF and Chaudhry for encouraging
Iloilo to stay on, a decision which "is not really good for
the country." Fiji's President is selected by the Great
Council of Chiefs, and some have speculated PM Qarase was
angling behind the scenes for a "conservative," maybe current
Fiji High Commissioner to Malaysia Adi Samanumu Cakobau. Adi
Samanumu is anathema to Bainimarama, who is convinced she was
a major instigator of the 2000 coup. Interestingly,
Kotobalavu told us that, if Iloilo receives a second term
(and under Fijian chiefly custom it would be very rude for
the GCC to deny him that request once made),Vice President

SUVA 00000057 003 OF 003


Madraiwiwi would automatically serve out the term as
President if Iloilo were to resign.

"The Bill" -- probably put aside for now
--------------

11. (C) One of Bainimarama's major issues with the Qarase
Government is the Reconciliation Bill (the Bill). Qarase has
conveyed mixed messages about the future of the Bill publicly
in recent days, most recently saying it will be passed by the
current Parliament...if there is time before the elections.
CEO Kotobalavu said the bill will not receive Parliamentary
consideration before the elections. There simply isn't time
to incorporate necessary amendments. However, Bainimarama
retains suspicions.

More 2000-Coup indictments? Yes and no
--------------

12. (C) An alleged motive for the Bill is that Qarase
wanted to curry favor with Fijian conservative voters who
hanker to see the release of those convicted of participating
in Fiji's 2000 coup. In addition, some of the alleged
instigators of events in 2000 remain under investigation.
Police Commissioner Hughes told us former PM Rabuka is likely
to be indicted soon for collaboration in a mutiny against
Bainimarama in late 2000. Investigations into those who
helped finance the May 2000 coup continue, but Hughes
predicts no convictions will result. Evidence is not
sufficiently clear. Investigations also continue against
prominent Fijian chiefs, like current High Commissioners to
Malaysia (Cakobau) and PNG (Kabuabola),and against former
Police Commissioner and now PermRep to the UN Savua. Hughes
senses that, again, not enough proof will emerge in those
cases.

Comment
--------------

13. (C) Given Commander Bainimarama's view that the coming
elections are bound to be corrupted, and given what we are
hearing about the late April election date, Bainimarama is
facing decision time. Without doubt he knows that trying to
take the law into his own hands to stop elections would have
serious repercussions. As previously reported (reftel),
events of January may well have instilled doubt in
Bainimarama's mind whether the RFMF would follow him if he
were to attempt illegal acts. He also certainly understands
that Fiji's international reputation and tourist economy
would suffer from such. Down to home, he knows U.S. military
assistance to Fiji would be severed. Interestingly, when we
asked how plans are coming along for next September's Pacific
Armies Management Seminar (PAMS) to be held in Fiji,
Bainimarama responded that plans are coming along well..."if
it happens." Might that be an acknowledgment that illegally
stopping the election would surely stop things like PAMS as
well? Bainimarama told us 2006 will bring three important
events from the RFMF perspective: selecting the new
President; the general election; and PAMS.


14. (C) We truly believe Bainimarama wants a legal way out
of the box he is in. Thus, he will push for a "civilian"
solution in discussions with the Acting President and others.
The hanging question, though, is what happens if legal
election requirements and civilian-leaders' judgments result
in the civilian option not coming through.
DINGER