FIJI UPDATE 12/13: RFMF MONITORING TRANSPORT TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SUVA 000556

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/13/2016
TAGS: PREL MARR PHUM ASEC CASC FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI UPDATE 12/13: RFMF MONITORING TRANSPORT TO
PREVENT QARASE RETURN; INTERIM GOVERNMENT PLANS STALLED;
EMINENT PERSONS AND TRADITIONAL WARRIORS ON THE MARCH?

REF: SUVA 554

Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D).

Summary
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1. (C) PM Qarase says Fiji is sliding into dictatorship, and
he continues to state he leads the only legitimate
government. He reiterated today that he intends to return to
Suva as soon as he can find transport. The RFMF said it is
monitoring all transport so as to keep Qarase in the outer
islands of Lau. Qarase has denied corruption and challenged
the RFMF to offer proof to the police. Bainimarama's
announced intention to establish an interim government has
not visibly moved forward. Supposedly he sees a need to have
the Great Council of Chiefs re-instate President Iloilo
first. A newspaper reports that traditional warriors have
threatened to kill Bainimarama and burn the homes of RFMF
soldiers if democracy is not restored by Christmas day. The
RFMF says it can counter any threat. The Pacific Islands
Forum (PIF) wants to re-start an "eminent persons group"
(EPG) mediation effort in Fiji next week. End summary.

Bainimarama a Saddam? Qarase discusses plans
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2. (U) PM Qarase, still at his home in Lau, has told the
media that Fiji is sliding into a dictatorship. Qarase has
proposed that Commodore Bainimarama belongs in the company of
Saddam Hussein, Idi Amin, and Hitler. Per reftel,
Bainimarama suggested yesterday that Qarase plans to set up a
"de facto" government in Fiji's West. Qarase said that is
"an absolute lie," and added that he already leads the one
legal government in Fiji. Qarase said he plans to "come into
Suva very publicly," via Nausori airport, where he believes a
large group of supporters will greet him. He suggested,
rightly, that the RFMF will be concerned about that. The
Army has announced its intent to keep Qarase from departing
his island home. Qarase said he expects to be detained when
he reaches Suva; but, he added, "That doesn't worry me. The
crucial thing is the people of Fiji want to restore
democracy."

Back and forth on corruption
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3. Qarase responded today to Bainimarama's claims of
government corruption, which he called "wild allegations."
Qarase noted that every country suffers from corruption to
some degree, and, he suggested, if the Army has evidence, it
should provide it to the police so they can investigate.
Qarase added his view that "there is a lot of corruption
within the military" here.

RFMF interim government and GCC
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4. (C) RFMF PM Senilagakali told the media today that he
expects to stay in the job only until the end of December,
presuming Bainimarama will have organized an interim
government by then, blessed by President Iloilo, whom the
RFMF expects will by then have been re-installed by the Great
Council of Chiefs (GCC). It is not obvious to us why the GCC
would feel the need to re-install President Iloilo, since the
GCC and Iloilo believe Bainimarama never had the power to
remove the President in the first place. It is also possible
that the GCC might consider naming a new, more vigorous
President. Presumably Bainimarama is hoping to claim some
modicum of legal legitimacy out of the whole process, but it
strikes us that any unbiased court would never buy the
argument.

Nepotism arises
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5. (U) Commodore Bainimarama announced to the media late this
afternoon that he is appointing his brother, Meli
Bainimarama, who is the new CEO for Fijian Affairs, to be
acting head of the Fijian Affairs Board (FAB). The FAB head
schedules meetings for the GCC. There have been suggestions
that the GCC has been dragging its feet on scheduling the
meeting Commodore Bainimarama wants for re-appointing
President Iloilo. We will see if a sibling can change that.

A traditional threat to Bainimarama?
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6. (U) A front-page headline in today's Fiji Sun newspaper
reads: "Plot to Kill Commander." The article reports that

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traditional warriors from Fiji's 14 provinces have warned
Bainimarama that he will face the wrath of the people if he
does not return democratic rule by Christmas day. The
warriors also have supposedly warned that they will burn the
homes of all RFMF soldiers who remain loyal to Bainimarama.
And they supposedly are also threatening ethnic Indians who
have supported the military takeover. The Sun reports the
RFMF has launched Operation Tuvakarau to investigate the
threats and protect the Commodore. Land Forces Commander
Driti reportedly has challenged the warriors to come forward
and "stop playing mind games," since the RFMF is ready for
anything. Driti claimed, "Never before has the military been
united. The bond between soldiers is at one of its best."

PIF EPG - another attempt
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7. (C) The Australian High Commission informs us that the
Pacific Island Forum (PIF) is attempting to arrange for an
eminent persons group (EPG) to visit Fiji in an attempt to
mediate an end to the crisis. A meeting of PIF ministers
authorized an EPG on Dec. 1, just before the coup. Some
consideration was given to having another PIF ministerial
meeting to update the mandate, but a decision has been made
to proceed directly to a modified EPG attempt. EPG members
are likely to be the same as before, except for NZ FM Peters,
who is about to undergo knee surgery. His replacement on the
team is a Samoa minister, who will be joined by Australian
former CDF Cosgrove and Vanuatu DPM Kilman. The initial POC
within the Fiji Government will be MFA CEO Mataitoga, and the
timing is intended to be next week. An unknown is whether
the key Fiji players, in particular Bainimarama, will be
receptive.

Comment
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8. (C) If Qarase can find transport to Suva, the enthusiasm
of his supporter turn-out will provide a good measure of his
continuing popularity and his chances of somehow overturning
the coup in the near-term. The Fiji Sun report of a
traditional-warrior warning, if even partly true, would be a
concrete sign of the ethnic-Fijian backlash many here presume
is slowly boiling toward the surface.
DINGER