FIJI UPDATE 12/11: SCRAMBLE RE INTERIM GOVERNMENT;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SUVA 000553

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/2016
TAGS: PREL PHUM MARR ASEC CASC FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI UPDATE 12/11: SCRAMBLE RE INTERIM GOVERNMENT;
RFMF INTIMIDATION CONTINUES; COMMONWEALTH, UN, PIF
MEDIATION ATTEMPT?

REF: SUVA 552 (AND PREVIOUS)

Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D).

Summary
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1. (C) Suva remained quiet over the weekend. The RFMF is
working on plans for its interim government, without
revealing details. A senior military officer threatened PM
Qarase he will be arrested if he returns to Suva. Meanwhile,
the Fiji Government and the economy are suffering. RFMF
intimidation continues, including by threats of violence.
New Zealand policemen TDY in Suva were hassled during the
weekend, perhaps because the RFMF thought they were special
forces. We understand the Commonwealth, UN, and Pacific
Islands Forum may attempt a mediation effort in Fiji. Former
PM Rabuka was acquitted of inciting the November 2000 mutiny
within the RFMF. End summary.

Returning the Presidency to Iloilo?
--------------

2. (C) An RFMF senior source informed our DATT today that
Bainimarama is preparing to give back the Presidency to Ratu
Josefa Iloilo, with the intention to then have Iloilo quickly
appoint an interim government. In light of that the source
indicated the military advisory council previously mentioned
as an interim-interim measure might never be formalized.
Another RFMF source reported today that RFMF PM Senilagakali
doesn't expect to continue in his job for much longer. Since
Bainimarama took Presidential powers last Tuesday, Iloilo has
been isolated in Government House, with the RFMF appearing to
be tightly screening visitors. A delegation of chiefs from
Iloilo's Ba Province reportedly was refused access a few days
ago.


3. (C) Comment: One presumes Bainimarama's thinking is that
withdrawing his self-appointment to the Presidency would
leave Iloilo in place, and having Iloilo bless an interim
government would somehow make the coup more legally
justifiable. From our understanding of the law, Iloilo, even
if not under RFMF duress, would have no power under Fiji's
Constitution to remove Qarase. End comment.

Organizing an interim government? GCC role?
--------------

4. (U) In a media briefing in late afternoon, Bainimarama
announced that the military advisory council met today for
the first time. Bainimarama said he will address government
CEOs tomorrow. He said 300 people have applied to be cabinet
ministers, and while the Great Council of Chiefs refusal to
meet is hindering plans, "that can be overcome." Earlier in
the day, the media reported a GCC Chairman's statement that
the GCC will meet in Suva on Dec. 19-20. Presumably coming
days will bring clarification. Fiji Labor Party leader
Chaudhry today called for return of executive authority to
Iloilo and for him then to call "fresh" elections.

Another name for the interim government?
--------------

5. (C) A good source reports that, when the Police executed a
search warrant of President Iloilo's office a week and a half
ago, one of the documents obtained was the list of those
Bainimarama was intending to have Iloilo appoint to the
interim government. Both Ratu Epeli Ganilau (see reftel) and
Ratu Epeli Nailatikau were among the names. Both are former
Commanders of the RFMF. Both are high chiefs, married to
daughters of Fiji's father figure, Ratu Mara. Ganilau
reportedly has severe financial difficulties and has been
living lately at the Army camp. He ran on a moderate
platform in the 2006 elections and lost badly. Nailatikau
was Speaker of Parliament from 2001 until the May elections
and has been named Fiji's next High Commissioner to London.
We had heard that Nailatikau's wife, Adi Koila Mara, had been
encouraging her brother LtCol. Tevita Mara to back
Bainimarama. We had not previously heard that Nailatikau was
tied in. Our DATT observed that Nailatikau had a short
meeting with Bainimarama at RFMF HQ this morning.

Qarase back to Suva? Timing unclear
--------------

6. (C) PM Qarase, still on his home island in Lau, reportedly
told members of the media that he intends to travel back to
Suva within the next few days, with the aim to work with
colleagues to return constitutional government. However, a

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source close to Qarase reportedly expects the PM to stay in
Lau until early January. RFMF Land Forces Commander Driti
told the media today that if Qarase attempts to return to
Suva, he will be arrested. Bainimarama announced at his
press event that, since Qarase is still trying to get back
into power, that is a sign he is willing to resort to
violence. Because of that, military check points will stay
in place for several more days.

Cash crunch
--------------

7. (C) We hear that the Fiji Government is getting
desperately short of cash, and soon may not be able to pay
public-servant salaries. The CEO for the Ministry of Finance
issued an order last week restricting all Government CEOs
from writing large checks, absent MoF approval. The MoF CEO
then disappeared until surrendering to the RFMF today. We
hear he wanted nothing to do with coup participants, but he
is now undergoing questioning. Undoubtedly, Fiji Government
income from VAT, customs, etc., is declining rapidly with the
economy contracting. One anecdote: a popular Italian
restaurant in Suva has numbered many MPs, Police Commissioner
Hughes, and PM CEO Kotobalavu among its customers. When we
innocently inquired "how's business?," a waitress replied:
"Terrible; all our customers have been arrested."

RFMF intimidation efforts continue
--------------

8. (C) The RFMF has called in numerous people to warn them
against stirring opposition to the coup. Reportedly an NGO
ad calling for rule of law and providing Bainimarama's phone
and fax numbers generated a massive public response.
Organizers received RFMF threats. When former Labor Minister
Zinck announced in a local club that Bainimarama is a coward,
Bainimarama's brother was sitting nearby. He phoned the
RFMF. Troops arrived, hauled Zinck to the camp, forced him
to do exercises for a while, and threatened him not to create
further problems. Zinck has complained to Fiji's Human
Rights Commission. A prominent human-rights activist, Imrana
Jalal, received a phone call, quite obviously from the
military, threatening her with rape. Writers of "letters to
the editor" to daily papers have been hauled in and warned.
The "democracy shrine" that a group of youths created in the
Suva suburb of Lami was ransacked last night by people in
civilian clothes but carrying a firearm. The presumption is
it was an RFMF operation. The organizers were re-erecting
their shrine today, telling the media they are not seeking to
incite. All they ask is "democracy and no guns." We hear
most Qarase Ministers are no longer attempting to visit their
offices.


9. (U) In late afternoon, Bainimarama announced via the media
that the RFMF "will not tolerate any inciting comments." He
urged people of Fiji not to follow Australian Foreign
Minister Downer's advice to protest. Bainimarama noted that
Fiji is divided by race, and Fijian nationalism has often
been abused, including when violence erupted after the coup
of 2000. Bainimarama said the RFMF will continue taking in
people who appear to be inciting protest and will "tell them
in no uncertain terms the consequences." If needed, the RFMF
"will confront people with force." He added, "We know best
what is good for us and how to achieve it."

Hassling NZ policemen in Suva
--------------

10. (C) Over the weekend, New Zealand police personnel in
Suva for protective details were repeatedly hassled by the
RFMF. Friday evening after several NZ police dined at a
local hotel, RFMF troops arrived and asked the receptionist
to show them their "New Zealand register." She refused and
the troops left. On Saturday, NZ police in a lead car were
escorting a convoy of GNZ dependents out of Suva toward Nadi.
RFMF troops stopped the carload of NZ police, while allowing
the rest of the convoy to proceed. After 45 minutes, RFMF
Maj. Qilio (Land Forces Director for Operations and the only
officer recently seen wearing a sidearm) arrived and with
little discussion allowed the car to proceed. Sunday, NZ
police in a car were again stopped in Suva, but only briefly
before being allowed to proceed. The NZ High Commission
speculates that the RFMF is worried some NZ SAS troops,
perhaps with weapons, have infiltrated. Our NZ colleagues
tell us that is not the case.

Commonwealth, PIF talk mediation; India sanctions

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11. (C) The international community continues to pour
condemnation on the RFMF coup. The Commonwealth suspended
Fiji on Friday. Pacific Island Forum (PIF) Foreign Ministers
are likely to meet again soon, probably in Australia, to
again consider the situation. We hear the Commonwealth, UN,
and PIF may attempt to create a joint mediation team. For
the PIF to join, it would have to edit the mandate it
provided on Dec. 1 for an eminent persons group. PNG, Samoa,
and Cook Islands leaders have decried the coup. India put
out a statement calling for democracy and a return to rule of
law. We hear India is invoking mil/mil sanctions against the
RFMF, as it did after Fiji's previous coups, turning off
training opportunities in particular. The India High
Commission in Suva has been urging Delhi not to be too vocal,
fearing that no matter what India does, many in Fiji will
blame ethnic-Indians for the current crisis.

Rabuka acquittal
--------------

12. (U) In the trial of former RFMF Commander and former PM
Rabuka, accused of fomenting a mutiny against Bainimarama in
November 2000, Judge Winter ruled today that the prosecution
failed to meet the "beyond a reasonable doubt" standard.
Five assessors (kind of like jurors) had split in their views.

Comment
--------------

13. (C) The RFMF obviously is frustrated by continuing
efforts at public protests. We note that FM Downer's plea
was for "passive" protest. Intimidation continues, and while
that has not been violent, to date, some remarks have
certainly threatened harsh violence. The attempts to hassle
New Zealand police during the weekend probably also are signs
of RFMF nervousness. The Army seemingly remains concerned
that special forces from outside will become involved. The
next few days should offer a clearer picture than today of
what the RFMF intends in the near term to create interim
government institutions, and what role the GCC intends to
play. The acquittal of Rabuka is not too surprising.
Evidence was somewhat fuzzy. The outcome does illustrate
that Fiji's court system is independent, at least when a
truly neutral judge in presiding. To date, Bainimarama has
not publicly expressed an interest in the case.
DINGER