Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06SUVA552
2006-12-07 20:42:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Suva
Cable title:  

FIJI UPDATE 12/8: FOR SHORT TERM, DE FACTO COUP;

Tags:  PREL MARR ASEC CASC FJ 
pdf how-to read a cable
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DE RUEHSV #0552/01 3412042
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 072042Z DEC 06
FM AMEMBASSY SUVA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3531
INFO RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY 1435
RUEHPB/AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY PRIORITY 1026
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON PRIORITY 1217
RUEHNZ/AMCONSUL AUCKLAND PRIORITY 0243
RUEHDN/AMCONSUL SYDNEY PRIORITY 0648
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI PRIORITY
RHHJJAA/JICPAC HONOLULU HI PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SUVA 000552 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2016
TAGS: PREL MARR ASEC CASC FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI UPDATE 12/8: FOR SHORT TERM, DE FACTO COUP;
FUTURE LESS CLEAR; ELECTIONS A FEW YEARS AWAY; REQUEST FOR
CONTINUED INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE

REF: SUVA 549 (AND PREVIOUS)

Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D).

Summary
-------
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SUVA 000552

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2016
TAGS: PREL MARR ASEC CASC FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI UPDATE 12/8: FOR SHORT TERM, DE FACTO COUP;
FUTURE LESS CLEAR; ELECTIONS A FEW YEARS AWAY; REQUEST FOR
CONTINUED INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE

REF: SUVA 549 (AND PREVIOUS)

Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D).

Summary
--------------

1. (C) Fiji Vice President Madraiwiwi and Prime Minister
Qarase both have acknowledged that Bainimarama's coup has
succeeded for the immediate future, though neither has
resigned. With significant players, including many in the
ethnic-Fijian community, very unhappy about that result, a
"crunch time" may still come in Fiji time, a while from now.
Observers await revelations about who Bainimarama's shadowy
backers have been. Madraiwiwi has pleaded for international
pressure to continue to demonstrate that the world "will not
tolerate or condone" what has happened. It appears the RFMF
doesn't plan elections anytime soon. End summary.

VP: tacit acceptance of coup; but crunch time ahead
-------------- --------------

2. (C) In a conversation today, Vice President Madraiwiwi
told us he expects Bainimarama and the RFMF to continue a
"gradual consolidation" of the coup. He sees a "tacit
acceptance" of the reality of military control, though a real
question remains about how much support the coup has in the
community. Madraiwiwi predicts "a crunch time will come"
about whether the RFMF can sustain itself in power. People
are "biding their time; these things take time" in Fiji. He
noted it took a year after the 1999 election for the uprising
that removed then-PM Chaudhry; but "it may take less time
this time."

Curiosity about those in the shadows
--------------

3. (C) In the meantime, Madraiwiwi added, it will be
interesting to see who comes out from the shadows, including
to take prominent positions in Bainimarama's interim
administration. Madraiwiwi accepts blame for being naive
about some whom he trusted to have sympathies for the
nation's interests, rather than just for the military's. He
indicated the list includes people close to President Iloilo
who have taken advantage of the man's "frailty."

Time to move on

--------------

4. (C) Madraiwiwi said he holds no anger or resentment. In
fact, he is relieved, though he is experiencing weariness and
sadness. It is time to move forward, and he will begin work
at the Howard's law firm on Monday. (Madraiwiwi's closest
friend, Graham Leung, is managing partner there.) Asked
whether he technically remains VP, Madraiwiwi said it would
appear so; but he is leaving the legalities of his situation
to others. He expressed appreciation for the strong stance
Great Council of Chiefs Chair Bokini has taken in support of
the Constitution, including by affirming that only the GCC
can appoint or remove a President or Vice President.

Plea for continued international pressure
--------------

5. (C) Madraiwiwi expressed appreciation for moves by the
international community, including the United States, to
press for rule of law and to impose coup sanctions. He urged
the world to keep demonstrating that it "will not tolerate or
condone" the RFMF's illegal removal of the government.

Qarase turning to a new direction
--------------

6. (U) In a media interview early this morning, PM Qarase
sounded subdued. He said he is thinking of next steps for
his future life, perhaps a venture into business. He said he
stood his ground for "principle and democracy," and is proud
of that. He figures Bainimarama's coup will be challenged in
court. He asked civil servants to continue working for the
people, independently of politics.

Elections down a long road...
--------------

7. (U) The RFMF's PM told the media today that it may take
"12 months, or 2 or 3 years" for Fiji to be ready for general
elections. Opposition Leader Beddoes's proposal for a
government of national unity (refs),which would invoke the
"doctrine of necessity" and a Qarase resignation as PM in
order to put in a caretaker government made up of MPs elected
in last May's elections, suggests the prospect of elections

SUVA 00000552 002 OF 003


in March 2009.

Ganilau out of the shadows?
--------------

8. (U) Former RFMF Commander and former GCC head Ratu Epeli
Ganilau, who has been rumored to be one of the main
proponents of Bainimarama's coup, told the media today GCC
Chair Bokini has asked him to mediate between the RFMF and
the GCC. Ganilau said the takeover was illegal, but people
must accept reality. The GCC must come to terms with the
military and move on. Ganilau added that he would consider a
position in the interim government. The RFMF spokesman said
the military is not seeking a GCC meeting for now, wanting a
"normal situation" before moving to re-appoint President
Iloilo. GCC Chair Bokini informed the media he has not
spoken with Ganilau and certainly has not asked him to
mediate. Bokini said it will be hard to get the chiefs to
meet in the current circumstances.

Chaudhry, Manueli in the doorway?
--------------

9. (U) Former PM and Fiji Labor Party leader Chaudhry
announced today that the FLP stands ready to help the
military return Fiji to democratic rule ASAP. He reiterated
that he will not personally accept a role in a caretaker
government, since it would arise from an illegality.
Chaudhry appealed to the diplomatic community to engage with
the RFMF. Former RFMF Commander and Home Affairs Minister in
the Rabuka Government Paul Manueli has been seen frequently
at the army camp and has served as an RFMF emissary to the
Qarase Government at times. Asked by the media if he is part
of Bainimarama's advisory council, Manueli denied it.

The advisory council
--------------

10. (C) The DATT reports that Bainimarama's advisory council
is to consist of three senior RFMF officers: Bainimarama;
Chief of Staff Capt. (Navy) Teleni; and Land Forces Commander
Col. Driti; plus a number of civilian CEOs from key
ministries. RFMF Major George Langman is to be secretary.
Total membership is expected to be 10-12, and the first
formal meeting is to be next Monday. Per ref A, Bainimarama
announced yesterday that all CEOs are to produce reports for
a meeting with the RFMF on Monday.

Chiefs, Army, troop loyalties
--------------

11. (U) Yesterday, the high chief of Namosi Province called
for all RFMF troops from Namosi to lay down their weapons and
return home. Today the chief's nephew, an RFMF Lieutenant
designated as leader of Namosi troops at the camp, told the
media that he and his mates unanimously decided to ignore the
chief and back Bainimarama's goals, preferring army life to
planting root crops in the village.

Churches remain unhappy
--------------

12. (U) The Fiji Council of Churches and the Assembly of
Christian Churches in Fiji have an ad in today's Fiji Times
stating they do not recognize or support the interim
government which is unconstitutional. They say the coup "is
a manifestation of darkness and evil." Comment: Sermons this
Sunday might be interesting.

Spinning the news
--------------

13. (C) Former RFMF Colonel Baledrokadroka, who awaits
court-martial on allegations that he attempted to stir a
mutiny against Bainimarama last January, was seen at the RFMF
camp yesterday. The RFMF suggested he had returned to signal
support for the takeover. Our DATT reports Baledrokadroka
has a different account. RFMF troops came to his house in an
intimidation attempt earlier this week. Frustrated, the
Colonel went to the camp to complain to Col. Driti.
Baledrokadroka reports the RFMF offered him the Police
Commissioner job, but he responded that he "wants no part" of
what is going on. He is seeking asylum with his family in
New Zealand.

Comment
--------------

14. (C) With PM Qarase and VP Madraiwiwi both signaling they
are moving on, it appears Bainimarama can now presume he has
won the short-term battle. Neither the PM nor VP has

SUVA 00000552 003 OF 003


actually resigned, but the coup seems to have succeeded, for
now. However, as Madraiwiwi suggested, memories are long in
Fiji and many ethnic-Fijians are unhappy with the recent
events. RFMF troops continue to barge into offices without
notice or warrant; intimidation has not ended; bruising of
the rule of law continues. With visa sanctions in play, we
expect those who linger in the shadows behind Bainimarama, at
least the savvy ones, will attempt to play coy about the
interim government. As Suva moves into the weekend, the
streets remain calm.
DINGER