FIJI UPDATE 12/4:

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SUVA 000531

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/04/2016
TAGS: PREL MARR ASEC CASC FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI UPDATE 12/4:

REF: SUVA 528

Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D).

Summary
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1. (C) The Fiji coup may have officially commenced in late
morning, 12/4, when Republic of Fiji Military Forces (RFMF)
troops confiscated the firearms of the Police Tactical
Response Unit (PTR). At mid-afternoon, the RFMF set up a
road block on the outskirts of Suva, reportedly to block
"thugs" from entering the city, though it may also have been
an attempt to nab PM Qarase. The Fiji Post newspaper
reportedly shut its doors today in the face of RFMF threats.
Beyond that, at COB Suva remained quiet. Some political
leaders are speaking out against a coup, as are a number of
NGOs, churches, and some traditional leaders. The President
and Vice President remain reticent at a time when many are
looking for them to press loudly for rule of law. We sense
the public is coming to realize that this time Commodore
Bainimarama is not bluffing. Few in Fiji, and certainly very
few ethnic-Fijians, relish a coup, contrary to Bainimarama's
belief. If/as the coup proceeds, tensions may rise within
the RFMF and between the RFMF and civil society. We will be
watching carefully. End summary.

Army disarms the PTR
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2. (C) At around 11 a.m., six RFMF vehicles visited the
Police Tactical Response Unit (PTR) headquarters on the
outskirts of Suva. The PTR is the one police organization
trained to use firearms, and its close-down is one of
Bainimarama's demands to Qarase. An Army request to see the
PTR firearms brought an initial response that only the Home
Affairs Minister could so authorize. That brought a lull
until police agreed to allow just a viewing. Once the Army
had access to the weapons, they reportedly loaded them up and
took them away. The Acting Police Commissioner complained to
the media that, aside from the RFMF deceit, the confiscation
of firearms has taken away from the PTR its capacity to deter
armed criminals and/or terrorists. Note: Police sources had
already made clear to us that they had no intention of
confronting the much more heavily armed RFMF. End note.

Road block from the interior
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3. (C) At mid-afternoon, the RFMF reportedly set up a check
point on the main road that approaches Suva from Naitasiri
Province, in Fiji's interior. Naitasiri is home to some of
Qarase's strongest backers. Its High Chief, a leader of
Qarase's political party, remains in jail for crimes
committed in 2000. Reportedly, an RFMF officer explained the
road block is aimed to screen traffic, not halt it, with the
intention to keep thugs from entering Suva. That said, in
late afternoon a helicopter flew into central Suva with PM
Qarase on board. Apparently he was in Naitasiri today, so
the RFMF road block may have actually been intended to nab
the PM.

Opposition Leader and FLP Leader on rule of law
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4. (C) During the weekend, Mick Beddoes, Opposition Leader in
Parliament, made completely clear his opposition to a
military takeover. The leader of the Fiji Labor Party,
Mahendra Chaudhry, stated publicly that he would only take a
role in government if that government is legally constituted.
Rumors have circulated that Chaudhry is prominent on
Bainimarama's list for an interim government.

Quiet from Government House
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5. (C) Bainimarama told the media over the weekend the only
person he would listen to is President Iloilo, who last week
issued a statement affirming his support for democracy and
the rule of law. Vice President Madraiwiwi may be attempting
to facilitate communication between Bainimarama and Qarase;
however, neither Iloilo nor Madraiwiwi has been visible the
way one might hope such leaders would be with democracy on
the line. (Note: some coup scenarios floating around Suva
suggest the President will declare that Qarase no longer has
the ability to govern, will remove him, and will authorize
Bainimarama's interim government. The reality is that under
Fiji's Constitution, the President has no such power; so such
a plot would be just as illegal as a straight-forward coup.)

NGOs gear up protests

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6. (C) After Bainimarama's Thursday evening media conference
in which he left no public doubt of his intention to remove
the Qarase Government, it appears that civil society came
awake. Until then, possibly many activists figured the
current bombast was simply more of what Fiji has been
experiencing from the Commodore for several years. Three
local NGOs (the Pacific Center for Public Integrity,
Transparency International/Fiji, and the Fiji Women's Rights
Movement) placed full-page ads in Sunday and Monday papers
asking people to sign and fax them an "open letter" to
Bainimarama: "Yes to democracy; no to coup." The ad includes
Bainimarama's fax, e-mail, and mobile phone numbers in case
people want to register dismay directly. We hear a number of
faxes have followed. The same groups applied for a police
permit to march for rule of law. Reportedly, the police
denied the permit, worried that a peaceful march could get
hijacked into violence.

Churches rally the flock
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7. (U) PM Qarase has asked everyone in Fiji to pray for God's
help to resolve the crisis. Qarase and his wife were
pictured on the front page of the Fiji Times taking
communion. According to the press, many pastors used Sunday
sermons in Methodist Churches to ask their flocks to
encourage RFMF personnel not to obey unlawful orders and to
support rule of law and democracy.

High Chief weighs in
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8. (C) The High Chief of the Burabasaga Confederacy (one of
the three big confederacies in Fiji; oversees the clans in
the Suva area) is also the Education Minister. She has
called a chiefly meeting, reportedly to reconfirm her view
that the RFMF must not engage in any illegal actions within
her territory, i.e. in the Suva area. With the RFMF composed
almost entirely of ethnic-Fijians, quite a number of whom
would come from Burabasaga, cohesion within the RFMF may be
tested. Qarase's visits to the Savusavu area on Friday and
to Naitasiri Province today could well be other attempts to
stir ethnic-Fijian protests.

Fiji Daily Post flees after RFMF threat
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9. (U) The Fiji Daily Post newspaper, managed by a relative
of PM Qarase's wife, has been a thorn in Bainimarama's side
for many months. The Sunday Post on its front page asked
Australia for political asylum for all staff. Today the
newspaper reportedly closed its office and staff fled the
scene with computers in tow, having received repeated threats
from the RFMF. We hear the Post may attempt to keep
publishing, perhaps via the internet.

Comment
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10. (C) Suva has been quiet all day. The public remains
nervous about what Bainimarama's "peaceful transition" will
mean. The general public is finally coming to focus on
"coup," is remembering how devastating the previous ones were
for Fiji, and is coming to realize how stubborn and, at times
irrational, Bainimarama seems to have become. With the Army
having all the firearms and with Bainimarama giving repeated
public assurances that his intended "peaceful transition"
will include maintaining safe streets, we figure the
immediate future is likely to be fairly orderly, unless the
streets fill with protesters, either from churches and NGOs
or from ethnic-Fijian communities upset if/when the
ethnic-Fijian army has deposed an ethnic-Fijian PM.
DINGER