FIJI UPDATE 11/27: BAINIMARAMA TENSION WITH THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SUVA 000518

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/2016
TAGS: PREL MARR PGOV ASEC CASC FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI UPDATE 11/27: BAINIMARAMA TENSION WITH THE
KIWIS; SEARCH AT GOVERNMENT HOUSE; CLEAN-UP KIDNAPPINGS?

REF: A. SUVA 516 (AND PREVIOUS)


B. STATE 190257

C. SUVA 509

Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D).

Summary
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1. (C) We are tentatively scheduled to meet with Republic of
Fiji Military Forces (RFMF) Commander Bainimarama on
Wednesday. We intend to join others in a joint demarche on
RFMF senior officers Tuesday. Over the weekend, New Zealand
FM Peters got nowhere with Bainimarama. The GNZ considered
arresting him but reportedly decided against, even though the
Commodore threatened the NZ High Commissioner in Suva and
others. A number of Australian and New Zealand citizens are
heading home for an early summer break. Others are ducking
down. Fiji Police executed a search warrant on President
Iloilo last week, which infuriated the RFMF. Bainimarama
reiterated his demand that Police Commissioner Hughes must
go. Reportedly, the RFMF "clean up" campaign includes the
"kidnap" of Hughes, Qarase, and others. We comment that, if
Bainimarama commences a "clean up" effort, it is not obvious
that the Qarase Government has a plan to counter it, though
Australia will face pressure to help. Fiji's streets might
well be calm initially. Over time, though, ethnic-Fijian
factionalism could breed in the RFMF, adding another source
of instability. End summary.

U.S. demarche with Bainimarama postponed to Wed
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2. (C) Acting RFMF Commander Capt. (Navy) Teleni postponed a
meeting that had been scheduled for 11/27 at which the
Ambassador was to convey Ref B talking points pressing
against any coup attempt. Teleni told the Suva DATT that the
meeting should be with Commodore Bainimarama and suggested
Wednesday morning, 11/29. Teleni said Bainimarama would
return to Fiji on Tuesday. In the meantime, the UK High
Commissioner received instructions to demarche the RFMF at
below the Commodore level, jointly with the Aussies, Kiwis,
and U.S., if we are willing. The UK points parallel what all
four governments have been saying, so we intend to
participate in calls on Land Forces Commander Col. Driti and
3FIR Commander LtCol. Mara on Tuesday, unless otherwise
advised.

A flurry of activity over the weekend
--------------

3. (C) A great deal of activity went on behind the scenes
during the weekend, both in Suva and Wellington. Our Kiwi
colleagues report that late Saturday afternoon, Foreign
Minister Peters met with Bainimarama and heard basically the
same message all other interlocutors have received: the
situation in Fiji is dire; Qarase can continue as PM if he
capitulates to all RFMF demands; short of that, the RFMF will
force reform. After high-level discussions within the NZ
Government, Peters met again with Bainimarama Monday p.m. We
have yet to receive a read-out on the second meeting.

Arrest in New Zealand? Apparently not
--------------

4. (C) We heard from multiple good (non-Kiwi) sources in Suva
during the weekend that Bainimarama was about to be arrested
by the GNZ. Actually, we are told that Fiji police pushed
hard for an arrest in New Zealand and even flew two senior
Fiji police officers to Wellington with evidence.
Reportedly, in a conversation with PM Clark, PM Qarase also
pushed for arrest. However, GNZ lawyers had difficulty with
a New Zealand arrest based on Fiji issues, especially since,
reportedly, the Fiji Public Prosecutor (DPP) has yet to bless
charges. Still, Bainimarama must have heard the rumors. He
reportedly threatened to have the RFMF act against the New
Zealand High Commissioner in Suva if an arrest took place in
New Zealand. That threat of harm to a Kiwi appears to
violate NZ law; however, we hear, in the end the GNZ has
decided not to arrest Bainimarama.

The uncertainty of being a Kiwi in Suva
--------------

5. (C) A factor in that decision surely was uncertainty about
what dangers might follow for Kiwis in Fiji. A number of
Australia- and New Zealand-affiliated businesses, on their
own, sent family members home last weekend to commence summer
holidays, a week earlier than planned. The families of New
Zealand High Commission employees have been consolidated at a
resort away from Suva. The NZ High Commissioner and DCM now
have NZ police protection details and are sleeping away from
their residences. The NZ DATT is in Fiji but staying away

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from Suva. Australia and New Zealand have bumped up their
travel warnings, though both have stopped short of a travel
ban. (Note: Embassy Suva's EAC met twice today, 11/27, to
consider the state of play. Given no NZ arrest, which might
inflame passions against foreigners, our current level of
public announcement remains appropriate.)

Evidence search: President/Bainimarama conversation
-------------- --------------

6. (C) The Fiji Police obtained a court warrant for a
document search at the Government House home of President
Iloilo and reportedly served it last Thursday evening.
Presumably the intent was to find evidence of the
conversation between Bainimarama and Iloilo on 11/20, during
which, according to Bainimarama, the President gave a "green
light" to go ahead with the "clean up" against Qarase. As
reported Ref C, Government sources denied any such signal was
given. (Note: we proposed to Vice President Madraiwiwi
during the weekend that, if there ever was a time for a
Presidential public statement, now is that time: to clarify
what was said, presumably to deny issuing any "green light,"
and to reaffirm "rule of law" themes. Madraiwiwi
acknowledged the point. An hour or so later when another
diplomat raised the same issue with the VP, the response was
reportedly very passive: that Government House is not central
to the current crisis and expects to stay on the sidelines.
End note.)

Bainimarama reiterates: Police Commissioner must go
-------------- --------------

7. (C) Bainimarama told the media from Wellington that the
police visit to Government House was a "raid" which all
Fijians should resent. (Fiji media have been describing the
event as a "raid" ever since, despite efforts by police
spokesmen and Home Affairs Minister Vosanibola to portray it
as the orderly serving of a court-issued search warrant.)
Bainimarama called on Police Commissioner Hughes to "pack his
bags and leave Fiji or we will pack them for him."

Bainimarama's action plan - kidnapping pressure
-------------- --

8. (C) Hughes reportedly has received indications that the
Bainimarama action plan includes the following: first, kidnap
Hughes and insist that Qarase capitulate on all the RFMF
demands; if that does not succeed, also kidnap Home Affairs
Minister Vosanibola, with the same demands; and work up to
kidnapping the PM himself if necessary. Another version has
the kidnappings, but with all the victims, including the PM,
put on a patrol boat and shipped "home." For Qarase that
would be a distant island in the Lau Group. Hughes
reportedly plans to board a well-provisioned Fiji Police boat
late today and direct his force's operations from at sea for
the immediate future.

Reservists march back into camp for "clean up"
-------------- -

9. (U) The RFMF called in its "territorial" (reserve) forces
over the weekend, with the published explanations being to
provide additional protection to President Iloilo and his
residence and to assist the RFMF in its "clean up" campaign
against the Qarase Government. When the territorials were
called up a few weeks ago, the RFMF spokesman billed it as
merely an "annual" exercise, and reportedly about 1000
reservists participated.

Comment
--------------

10. (C) The GNZ has had a tough call over whether to arrest
Bainimarama. His threats against one or more NZ diplomats
should not be condoned. Being passive with bullies only
encourages them. An arrest abroad might be the only way to
enforce a criminal charge and remove the Bainimarama thorn.
On the other hand, an arrest in NZ might inflame the RFMF
leadership to an immediate coup and/or action against Kiwi
diplomats. It could also ignite Fijian-nationalist
sentiments against outside influence, causing some who have
opposed Bainimarama to unite behind his "clean up" effort.


11. (C) Presuming that Bainimarama now does return to Fiji
tomorrow, 11/28, it is not obvious that the Qarase Government
has a short-term plan to counter a "clean up" campaign. From
VP Madraiwiwi's private comments last weekend, it sounds as
if Government House has decided to duck, a breathtaking
abdication of responsibility. Any commencement of legal
action here in Fiji requires Public Prosecutor action, yet to
be seen. To be credible, it also requires a means to enforce
police, prosecutorial, and judicial will, as yet not obvious.
If the RFMF does kidnap Commissioner Hughes, an Aussie,

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Canberra is likely to come under public pressure to "do
something." We do not know if Australia has contingency
plans in place for that, or if any such plans might include a
request for U.S. assistance.


12. (C) If Bainimarama does commence the "clean up" campaign,
it is possible, perhaps even likely, that the streets of Suva
will stay calm, at least for the short term. Everyone knows
who has the firearms. Over time, though, anti-Bainimarama,
pro-Qarase factions within the ethnic-Fijian community would
aim to eat away at RFMF unity. A fractured military could
bring still more destabilization to Fiji.
DINGER