FIJI UPDATE 11/16: PM QARASE WON'T CAPITULATE;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SUVA 000509

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2016
TAGS: PREL MARR ASEC CASC FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI UPDATE 11/16: PM QARASE WON'T CAPITULATE;
INQUIRES ABOUT FOREIGN INTERVENTION

REF: A. USDAO SUVA 201455Z NOV 06


B. SUVA 506

Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D)

Summary
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1. (C) Republic of Fiji Military Forces (RFMF) Commander
Bainimarama indicated publicly on Nov. 21 what he told
Embassy DATT privately on Nov. 20 (Ref A): that he intends to
remove the Qarase Government o/a Dec. 4. Diplomats met with
Home Affairs Minister Vosanibola and PM Qarase, and also
informed Police Commissioner Hughes, about Bainimarama's
clear statement of intent to remove the Government.
Vosanibola asked the diplomats to request their governments
to re-emphasize to Bainimarama the costs of a coup. Qarase
described all of Bainimarama's demands as unconstitutional,
said the Government cannot capitulate, and inquired if
foreign intervention might be possible. The PM's Office has
heard from President Iloilo's office that, contrary to
Bainimarama's description (Ref A),the President did not
provide the Commodore a "green light" to act yesterday. We
will continue to seek opportunities to attempt to influence
the Commander, though our impression is his focus is entirely
domestic: to remove Qarase, no matter what the cost. End
summary.

Bainimarama says publicly: Army to act in two weeks
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2. (C) Ref. A described a conversation last evening, Nov. 20,
between RFMF Commander Bainimarama and the Embassy DATT in
which Bainimarama made clear he intends to remove the Qarase
Government o/a December 1-4, unless it capitulates on all
demands. Bainimarama suggested that he had received a "green
light" for his plans from President Iloilo earlier in the
day. In a media interview in Fijian on the morning of Nov.
21 prior to flying to New Zealand to visit family,
Bainimarama reportedly stated that "the military will move in
to take action in relation to their demands if the government
does not act within the next two weeks." Bainimarama
reiterated that, if PM Qarase does not meet all RFMF demands,
"the military will commence its work in two weeks time."

Diplomats consult with PM and Home Affairs Minister
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3. (C) Given the somber news of the Commodore's firm
intention to commit a serious criminal act, which the DATT
had shared with his Australian and New Zealand colleagues,
the Ambassador met with the High Commissioners of Australia,
New Zealand, and the UK today, Nov. 21. They agreed to seek
an appointment with Home Affairs Minister Vosanibola, plus PM
Qarase, if available. The Aussie High Commissioner also
conveyed the news to Police Commissioner Hughes.

Minister asks US, others to re-lobby Bainimarama
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4. (C) Minister Vosanibola met with the group in the
afternoon. That was followed by a meeting with the PM. We
conveyed the essence of the news to both leaders. They had
earlier been briefed by Commissioner Hughes. Home Affairs
CEO Ligairi said he had just received a phone call from an
impeccable source at the Army camp reporting that the plan is
to kidnap several senior Ministers, including the PM.
Ligairi had received no word about timing. Vosanibola asked
the diplomats to re-emphasize to Bainimarama the costs of
engineering a coup. Vosanibola asked New Zealand High
Commissioner Green, in particular, if his government could
attempt to influence Bainimarama during his current visit to
Wellington. Green said the NZ Government is contemplating
such a conversation, including a reminder that a coup could
well mean no more visits to the family in New Zealand.
Ambassador Dinger noted that the USG intends to continue
attempts to persuade Bainimarama against a coup.

PM inquires about foreign intervention
--------------

5. (C) In the meeting with PM Qarase, he described all six of
Bainimarama's demands as "unconstitutional," given the
limited role the RFMF Commander is allowed under the 1997
Constitution. Qarase said it would be impossible to
capitulate and retain a democracy. Asked what the Government
has in mind to prepare for or respond to Bainimarama's plan,
Qarase seemed at a loss. He did ask: "What is the
possibility of foreign intervention? We are working to save
democracy here." Aussie High Commissioner Rawson noted it is
possible to ask the Pacific Island Forum (PIF) leaders for
intervention; however, she suggested it might be a tough
call. As the PM's CEO had noted in a side conversation while

SUVA 00000509 002 OF 002


waiting for the PM, the specter of foreign intervention could
actually help unite the Fijian community against the outside
threat. At that, Qarase noted that, with modern, precision
technology, a foreign force would not necessarily have to
actually invade. Qarase and Vosanibola moved on from the
diplomatic meeting to a session of the National Security
Council.

PM's Office is told President gave no "green light"
-------------- --------------

6. (C) In the meetings, the diplomats inquired about the
"green light" that Bainimarama said President Iloilo had
provided. The PM's office had checked with the President's
Official Secretary, who gave assurance that the
Bainimarama-Iloilo meeting had been purely a kava ceremony,
and there was no discussion at all of the RFMF's plans
against the Qarase Government. Note: The diplomats had
agreed that NZ High Commissioner Green, who was scheduled to
have dinner with Vice President Madraiwiwi this evening,
would seek insights from the VP about the Presidential
meeting. Unfortunately, in late p.m. the NZ HighComm
received word that Madraiwiwi has been admitted to hospital.

Comment
--------------

7. (C) We will continue to seek further insight into what
took place between the President and Commodore at Government
House, although under Fiji's constitutional system, the
President would only have authority to provide a "green
light" for the RFMF Commander to act if advised to do so by
the PM. That will not happen. We don't know if Qarase will
formalize a request for international intervention. If he
does, everyone would expect Australia and New Zealand to be
the ones approached. As for lobbying Bainimarama, we have
done so and will gladly continue to do so; however, we have
no expectation that international pressure is a factor in
Bainimarama's calculations. Our sense is his focus is
entirely domestic: to clean out what he sees as the tainted
Qarase Government and to protect himself and senior RFMF
officers from prosecution, no matter what the cost.


8. (C) On a side note, Bainimarama has indicated publicly he
doesn't want to commence action during school exams, which
end Dec. 1. Another more likely explanation for the Dec. 1-4
deadline is that the annual Army-Police rugby match, the Ratu
Sukuna Bowl, is to take place Dec. 1. In Fiji, rugby rules.
Believe it or not.
DINGER