FIJI UPDATE 11/15: WAITING FOR CIV-MIL MEDIATION;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SUVA 000497

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/15/2016
TAGS: PREL MARR PGOV ASEC CASC FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI UPDATE 11/15: WAITING FOR CIV-MIL MEDIATION;
STOKING BUDGET POLITICS

REF: A. SUVA 494


B. SUVA 489

Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D).

Summary
--------------

1. (C) Suva remains superficially calm. Republic of Fiji
Military Forces (RFMF) reserves are finishing a two-week camp
and are about to return home, at least temporarily. At the
same time, the Army has added to its list of "political"
complaints to Prime Minister Qarase. The Chair of the Great
Council of Chiefs thinks mediation can be the solution,
though he also believes the key issues are "personal" from
2000, not controversial bills. Fiji's tourism industry,
caught in the storm, is suffering. In Parliament, FLP leader
Chaudhry has suspended discussion of key land issues, pending
establishment of multi-party cabinet ground rules, which
Qarase blames Chaudhry for delaying. FLP cabinet members are
staking out positions on the budget, with no easy answers.
Politics has turned from consensus within the cabinet process
to discord on the floor. We comment that Fiji could really
use some encouraging news; but we are not seeing it at the
moment. End summary.

Army reserves turning homeward
--------------

2. (C) RFMF territorial (reserve) forces that have been
exercising for the past two weeks marched into camp today,
Nov. 15, for final activities before returning to regular
lives. When the call-up commenced, it was publicly billed as
"routine;" however, we have heard from a reliable source that
at least in one instance RFMF soldiers showed up at a home
and threatened to "put a bullet in (the) head" of a
territorial who attempted to opt out. That sort of
strong-arm tactic created considerable worry in the community
about the purpose of the exercise, but to date nothing
untoward has happened. We hear Commodore Bainimarama, in an
address at a final parade, predicted that territorial forces
will be called back to camp after annual school exams are
over in a few weeks.

More RFMF "political" demands; PM ready to talk
-------------- --

3. (C) PM Qarase told us the evening of Nov. 14 that he had
just received a letter from the RFMF supplementing a list of
grievances sent last week (see Ref B). Qarase described the
additions as "more of the same," more raising of political
issues, and he grumbled a wish that they "would stick to
their own business." Qarase insisted to us that he wants a
dialogue with Bainimarama, thinking talk is the only way out
of the current situation. He remains hopeful that a
mediation effort by the Great Council of Chiefs (GCC) can
bear fruit.

GCC ready to mediate
--------------

4. (C) We spoke with GCC Chairman Ratu Ovini Bokini on Nov.

15. He admitted that discussion in last week's meeting was
sometimes heated. When Bainimarama was verbally attacking
Qarase (the PM told us: "the Commander rubbished me"),Bokini
saw a number of Chiefs busily scribbling notes, getting ready
to fire back. Bokini decided Q&A would only add to problems,
so he escorted Bainimarama from the room without questions.
Asked about plans for GCC mediation between Qarase and
Bainimarama, Bokini said Qarase is ready to commence ASAP;
Bainimarama has yet to respond. Bokini, who departs on a
business trip to LA tomorrow, plans to leave the lead
mediation role to the three-person committee he established.
He will be a "back up" as required.

Real issues "personal" from 2000
--------------

5. (C) Bokini told us he believes GCC mediation has a real
chance to work. When we asked the GCC view of the three
"controversial" pieces of legislation Bainimarama has
decried, Bokini made clear his sense that all can be put on a
back burner without problem. He figures the land bills can
"go dormant" for quite a while; and the scaled-back RTUB
(reconciliation) draft may be so spare now, with the removal
of "amnesty" provisions, that, in his view, there is no sense
in proceeding with it. Asked if those bills are the heart of
Bainimarama's problem with the Qarase Government, Bokini said
he thinks not. He believes the big issues go back to the
events of 2000, are "personal," and must be "talked through"
by the two men. Bokini suggested that, since Vice President
Madraiwiwi is Bainimarama's high chief, the GCC will not
attempt traditional pressures on the Commodore unless the VP

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gives an OK.

Devastation for tourism industry
--------------

6. (C) The current civil-military crisis has hit tourism
hard. Dixon Seeto, head of the Fiji Hotel Association, told
us occupancy rates are currently around 50%, when they should
be around 80%. The immediate future looks even bleaker. New
bookings have almost dried up completely. One hotel alone,
the Sheraton Denarau, has lost about 2000 room nights and USD
1 million to date. Hotels are laying off staff. Temporary
workers are gone, and now permanent staff are being laid off
or having hours cut back. Seeto said an RFMF press release
two weeks ago saying there would be no coup was marginally
helpful, but bookings will only pick up when there is a
"positive signal" that the crisis is past. He is not
optimistic for that anytime soon. Asked if laid-off
employees are blaming the hotels, Seeto said: no, they
realize the RFMF is to blame.

FLP's Chaudhry stalls land talks; EU factor
--------------

7. (C) PM Qarase told us the evening of Nov. 14 that he
received a letter from FLP leader Chaudhry on Nov. 13
suspending any further discussion of land issues and
constitutional amendments until ground rules for Fiji's
current multi-party cabinet are resolved. Qarase expressed
great frustration about this, since, in his view, it is
Chaudhry who has delayed discussion of the ground rules, with
Qarase patiently waiting for the FLP to be ready for talks.
Qarase earlier had predicted the land issue could be
resolved, with FLP cooperation, during the first quarter of

2007. Note: the European Union's very large assistance plan
for Fiji's sugar industry may be in the balance. The EU has
said it needs to see significant movement on the land issue
before March 31, 2007, for its sugar assistance to proceed.
End note.

From consensus to "dishonest" discord
--------------

8. (C) The Chaudhry letter plays into the theater under way
during the current budget session of Parliament. With no
formal multi-party cabinet ground rules established, Qarase
has stated that FLP cabinet members must vote for the budget
on the floor of Parliament, per normal Westminster rules. He
confirmed to us that all nine FLP MPs endorsed the budget
proposal, including its now-controversial VAT increase,
during cabinet deliberations. That had to be the case,
since, he observed, Fiji's cabinet operates only by
consensus. Qarase sees those who now are speaking against
VAT as "dishonest." On the other hand, Chaudhry has made
clear the FLP expects all its MPs, including multi-party
cabinet members, to vote against the budget or face expulsion
from the party, which under Fiji's Constitution would trigger
a by-election. We hear that Chaudhry is contemplating an
attempt to pull the FLP out of cabinet entirely, until the
ground rules are established.

A Cabinet remix?
--------------

9. (C) So far in statements on the floor, one FLP cabinet
member has said he will support the budget; two have
indicated they will not; and others are fudging. Reportedly,
Qarase is considering sending several of his favorite FLP
cabinet members overseas at the time of the budget vote in an
attempt to protect them. Qarase told us he sees the process
working out satisfactorily: FLP cabinet members who have not
taken "multi-party" to heart will leave; the ones who in the
PM's view are valuable contributors will stay. Note: It may
be that Qarase would have to request FLP replacements for any
FLP members who depart Cabinet, since the Constitution has
been interpreted to require proportional representation in
Cabinet from all parties that have 10% or more of the seats
in Parliament.

Comment
--------------

10. (C) Severe tensions will continue in Fiji until Qarase
and Bainimarama find a way out of their impasse. Whether
that is via GCC or Vice Presidential mediation, or
suspension/criminal charges against the Commodore, or a coup,
or just a backing away by both sides to lick wounds and
continue the fight another day is not at all clear. What is
clear is that, in the meantime, Fiji's economy is suffering
and the RFMF's reputation is being tarnished. The sparring
between Qarase and Chaudhry over the multi-party cabinet and
the budget is not a huge surprise. We had heard rumors that
Chaudhry, always a skeptic about collaborating with the

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enemy, was plotting to scuttle the multi-party cabinet over
the budget. It will be a shame if that multi-party
experiment and an opportunity to tackle land issues become
the casualties. The people of Fiji, and the businesses that
consider investing here, need encouraging news; but they have
not been receiving it lately.
DINGER