FIJI UPDATE 11/13: GCC TRIES TO MEDIATE; NO STABLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SUVA 000489

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2016
TAGS: PREL MARR PGOV ASEC CASC FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI UPDATE 11/13: GCC TRIES TO MEDIATE; NO STABLE
OUTCOME IN SIGHT

REF: A. SUVA 486

B. DINGER-EAP/ANP E-MAIL OF NOV. 10

C. SUVA 460

Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D).

Summary
--------------

1. (C) Republic of Fiji Military Forces (RFMF) Commander
Bainimarama appeared before the Great Council of Chiefs on
Nov. 10 and angrily attacked PM Qarase and his policies.
Thereafter, the GCC tilted toward Qarase and initiated an
effort to mediate. It is possible an attempt will be made to
resuscitate a dialogue among Bainimarama, Qarase, and Vice
President Madraiwiwi; however, no easy way out is apparent.
Meanwhile, the Fiji Police reportedly expect sedition charges
against Bainimarama shortly, followed by the President
issuing a successful suspension order. In comment, we note
that Fiji is in an uneasy calm, with no confidence that a
politically-stable solution is in sight. As if all that
isn't enough, Fiji's multi-party Cabinet is under threat,
with the national budget bill a major hurdle. And former PM
Rabuka is on trial for attempting to incite mutiny against
Bainimarama in 2000. End summary.

Bainimarama vents before GCC
--------------

2. (C) Per ref A, Fiji's Great Council of Chiefs (GCC) met on
Thursday, Nov. 10, at the request of PM Qarase in an attempt
to contribute to a solution of Fiji's civil-military crisis.
RFMF Commander Bainimarama declined to attend. However, as
noted ref B, when a delegation from the GCC visited
Bainimarama that evening he agreed to participate in a
continuation of the meeting on Friday, on the condition that
the GCC would commit not to involve itself in the crisis,
other than to listen to both sides. Bainimarama and about
ten of his senior officers attended the Friday session.
Bainimarama spent about an hour conveying his views and
responding to questions. He reportedly called Qarase a liar
to his face and decried "racist" policies of the Government.

GCC tilts to Qarase; will attempt to mediate
--------------

3. (C) After the RFMF officers left, the GCC agreed to a
series of resolutions, contrary to the supposed commitment to
Bainimarama, though we gather he was not surprised. The
Chiefs set up a four-person committee, chaired by GCC
Chairman Bokini, to find ways to mediate the crisis. That
committee is to report back at the next GCC meeting in
mid-December. The GCC also affirmed their belief in rule of
law, democracy, customary laws, the right of Parliament to
legislate, etc. They said all citizens must "respect, abide
and protect" such rights at all times. While there was no
explicit mention of three controversial bills, the language
on parliamentary legislating could be read to endorse having
the bills receive consideration. All in all, the GCC clearly
tilted toward Qarase.

As Bainimarama attacks Qarase; a hint of dialogue?
-------------- --------------

4. (U) Late on Nov. 10, Bainimarama informed the media that,
since the PM has "given up" on the Army, the Army has also
"given up" on the PM. In other statements, Bainimarama
reportedly said he has "washed his hands" of the PM and
warned that the PM is "living on borrowed time." On the
other hand, he also reportedly committed to the GCC that the
Army will allow the Government time to resolve the crisis.
An aspect of that could be a resumption of a dialogue among
Vice President Madraiwiwi, Bainimarama, and Qarase that began
last February during an earlier phase of the crisis but that
stumbled after only a couple of meetings when Bainimarama
stopped meeting with Qarase, claiming their discussions were
going nowhere. On Nov. 11, during the opening of a women's
crisis center in Suva, the VP noted to us that maybe he
should repaint his office to match the center's soothing
soft-green walls, suggesting: "It might help calm the
Commander."

Demands and counters
--------------

5. (C) On Wednesday, Nov. 8, prior to the GCC meeting,
Bainimarama had sent Qarase a list of issues that the Army
insisted must be resolved. The list, in reality demands,
reportedly included: to withdraw the controversial bills; to
remove Police Commissioner Hughes; and to scrap
investigations against the military, including allegations of
murdering mutinous soldiers in 2000 and more recent
allegations of subversion. Qarase said publicly that he

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immediately wrote back reiterating his willingness to enter
into discussions. On Thursday, Qarase told the GCC two of
the controversial bills that have already been introduced
"would not be withdrawn." He did note that they can be
revised via parliamentary means, as reportedly is happening
with the reconciliation (RTUB) bill. Qarase's refusal to
just scrap the bills reportedly contributed to Bainimarama's
angry display before the GCC.

Manueli sees no easy way out
--------------

6. (C) Former Commander, RFMF, and former Minister for Home
Affairs, Paul Manueli, who remains a senior advisor to
Bainimarama and others in the Army, stopped by on Nov. 13.
He suggested that personal animosities between Qarase and
Bainimarama are intense, with fault on both sides, and it is
difficult to see a way out. He said the Commodore has been
receiving some "awful advice" from behind the scenes, as has
Qarase. Manueli claimed that on Oct. 31, when the President
sought to suspend Bainimarama, senior RFMF officers were on
the verge of acting against the Government. On seeing that,
Manueli rushed to VP Madraiwiwi and argued successfully for
the President to inactivate the suspension order. Asked the
current mood of the RFMF senior leadership regarding a coup,
Manueli expressed uncertainty. When we stressed the
importance of protecting the democratic system, Manueli
agreed. When we noted that Bainimarama and his senior
officers now seem to acknowledge no power above themselves,
Manueli offered no response.

A new plan to force Bainimarama out?
--------------

7. (C) A senior police contact has informed the Embassy that
police investigations of the RFMF sedition charges are
complete and have gone to the Director of Public Prosecutions
(DPP). The aim is a very rapid response, this week or next.
With a green light, the police will seek a court summons that
would lead to a court date, probably in December. With the
court summons, the police expect the President would attempt
again to suspend Bainimarama, pending court action. With
that, BrigGen Iowane Naivalurua, who just returned from
heading Fiji's contingent to UNAMI in Iraq, would be named
Acting Commander; and the police believe Naivalurua has the
clout to win over nearly all the RFMF. The police contact
said, except for a few RFMF officers at the top, the military
and police still have good relations. The police feel
pressure to act against the RFMF senior leaders, since "they
have broken the law."

Multi-party cabinet under threat
--------------

8. (U) In other news, Fiji's multi-party Cabinet experiment
may be severely tested shortly. The Fiji Labor Party (FLP)
held a meeting on Nov. 9, with some, but not all, of FLP's
nine Cabinet members attending. FLP leader Chaudhry
announced afterward that the party unanimously agreed to
oppose the Qarase budget because the proposal is "anti-poor."
Chaudhry claimed Qarase did not consult on tax aspects,
including a 20% increase in VAT (from 12.5% to 15%). Qarase
and Chaudhry have had inconclusive discussions on guidelines
for the multi-party Cabinet, but Qarase clearly expects all
Cabinet members to vote on the floor of Parliament in favor
of any legislation Cabinet previously approved. FLP cabinet
members may have to choose: vote with Cabinet (thereby facing
FLP censure) or vote with FLP (thereby facing loss of Cabinet
portfolio).

Former PM Rabuka in the dock
--------------

9. (U) A criminal trial of former PM Rabuka commenced on Nov.

10. He is charged with inciting RFMF officers in July and
November 2000 to mutiny against Bainimarama. Former RFMF
LtCol. Seravakula (now with the UN in Afghanistan) is the
first witness. He has testified he received phone calls from
Rabuka urging mutiny but declined to act.

Comment
--------------

10. (C) Fiji has settled into an uneasy calm, without a sense
that a coup is imminent but without confidence that a
peaceful, stability-creating solution is on the horizon. The
police scenario in para 7 sounds a lot like the Government
scenario for Oct. 31 (Ref C),with the exceptions that
Bainimarama and BG Naivalurua both are now in Fiji. There is
no doubt Naivalurua is highly respected. There must be
doubt, given the RFMF's rebuff of the President just two
weeks ago, whether a new effort to suspend Bainimarama will
succeed.

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DINGER