FIJI PM SEEKS HELP FROM FRIENDLY FOREIGN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 SUVA 000471

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

ROME PLEASE PASS TO AMB. LAROCCO, HQ MFO SINAI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2016
TAGS: PREL MARR CASC ASEC FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI PM SEEKS HELP FROM FRIENDLY FOREIGN
GOVERNMENTS

REF: A. SUVA 469


B. SUVA 466

C. SUVA 460 (AND PREVIOUS)

Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D).

Summary
--------------

1. (C) In a meeting with selected diplomats on Nov. 3, Fiji
PM Qarase thanked governments for publicly supporting Fiji's
democratic system in recent days. He responded to complaints
by Republic of Fiji Military Forces (RFMF) Commander
Bainimarama about controversial bills, stressed his "open
door" to dialogue, and said he is flexible about RFMF
participation in Fiji's National Security Council (NSC).
Qarase described a variety of internal Fiji efforts to find a
way out of the crisis. How might foreign governments help
defuse the situation? Qarase and Pacific Island Forum (PIF)
SecGen Urwin discussed invoking the region's Biketewa
process. Qarase urged governments to hit the RFMF where it
hurts by threatening/implementing restrictions on support for
PKO, military aid, and senior-officer travel. He told the
group that he used the talking points re military support
during a phone conversation earlier in the p.m. with EAP A/S
Hill and received a "very supportive" response. The Aussie
said FM Downer has advocated such restrictions. We comment
that, no doubt, Qarase was putting his own spin on history
and the current crisis; but Bainimarama has consistently
presumed the worst, and his barrage of public threats to
remove the government are blatantly unconstitutional. Action
request: we seek guidance on how to respond re Qarase's
request for restrictions on the U.S.-RFMF military
relationship. Per ref C, a particular issue will be whether
to rescind Bainimarama's participation in PACOM's CHODS
conference the week after next. End summary.

Thanks to foreign governments
--------------

2. (C) Following on reftels, on the afternoon of Friday, Nov.
3, PM Qarase called in the Ambassadors/High Commissioners of
Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, the UK, France, and
the U.S., plus the representative of the EU and the Secretary
General of the Pacific Island Forum (PIF). He began with
"sincere thanks" for all those governments' and
organizations' "strong expressions of support for elected
government," democracy, and the rule of law in Fiji.

Police investigations v. Bainimarama
--------------

3. (C) Qarase said he met in the a.m. with Acting RFMF
Commander Capt. (N) Teleni, who said there will be "no coup."
Still, the PM observed, Commodore Bainimarama's "erratic
behavior underlines a need to watch the situation carefully."
Qarase noted that Fiji Police investigations against
Bainimarama are under way on several fronts: for public
outbursts aimed to force the government to resign; for
manipulation of Fiji's President regarding an investigation
about sackings of RFMF senior officers in 2003; for
mismanagement of the RFMF's budgeted funds; and for the
killing of mutiny soldiers who were taken from police custody
in November 2000. Many of those investigations are
long-standing, and til now Bainimarama has managed to
frustrate them.

Controversial bills and the GCC
--------------

4. (C) The PM said the Great Council of Chiefs (GCC) meeting
he has called for next Thursday (Nov. 9) is a "good step."
Under the Constitution, the GCC must be consulted on all
matters seriously affecting the Fijian people, and Qarase
reiterated that the parliamentary bills Bainimarama has
complained about were all endorsed by the GCC before being
tabled. On the two such bills currently before Parliament
(relating to land issues),the RFMF has made submissions to
sector committees, an appropriate role. However, Qarase
argued, the RFMF has no other constitutional role in the
making of laws.

A reformed reconciliation bill in the works
--------------

5. (C) On the Reconciliation, Truth and Unity Bill (RTUB),
the third issue, Qarase noted the initial, controversial bill
lapsed with the end of the previous Parliament and has not

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yet been reintroduced. He said there have been "substantial
changes" in the draft, including deletion of the "amnesty
clause" and replacement with new language that would make
much more transparent a current process that allows
"immunity" for convicted prisoners under some circumstances.
Another aspect of the bill would set up a permanent National
Council for Reconciliation, a step that Qarase believes is
much needed in Fiji and is non-controversial. Regarding
"amnesty," Qarase said police investigations into illegal
activities from 2000 are "almost completed," which may raise
a question whether amnesty or immunity provisions are still
live issues. Qarase said he does not expect the draft bill
to reach Cabinet until late 2006 or early 2007.

VP, PM, Commander discussions
--------------

6. (C) Qarase recalled the tripartite discussions that
commenced among the Vice President, the PM, and Bainimarama
after tensions rose last January. While meetings between the
VP and the Commander have continued, Qarase said Bainimarama
"opted out" of direct discussion with the PM after only a
couple sessions. Still, Qarase said he made clear at the
time that his "door is always open." It is that assurance
that lies behind his latest offer to resume dialogue.

RFMF participation in the NSC
--------------

7. (C) On Bainimarama's unhappiness in being excluded from
National Security Council meetings, Qarase said the
convention over the years had been for the Commander RFMF and
Commissioner of Police to be invited. After the events of
2000 when Qarase had just become PM, he invited both security
officials all the time. Their participation was useful.
Later, when Bainimarama began threatening the government,
Qarase stopped inviting him, since "the threat was actually
coming from the Commander, after all." Still, Qarase said he
can be flexible on that issue...if Bainimarama stops his
threats.

Internal Fiji efforts to resolve the mess
--------------

8. (C) When we asked for comment about any ongoing efforts,
beyond those mentioned, within Fiji to promote resolution of
the current crisis, Qarase reiterated his willingness to
engage in dialogue with Bainimarama and his invoking of the
GCC which might cause the whole affair to "fade away."
Qarase noted that the attempt to "discipline" Bainimarama
(via Presidential suspension) "fell flat on our faces."
Still, he is pursuing that avenue, since "there are grounds
for it." Qarase also mentioned the possibility of "easing
him out to a posting abroad." But rewarding the threats is
not the ideal solution from the PM's point of view. Qarase
stressed, "the Commander IS the problem," and he suggested
"the rank and file (in the RFMF) are embarrassed." He said
"over 90% of military personnel" voted SDL (Qarase's party)
in the May elections, and the sentiment is "still there."
Asked if the suspension order remains in effect, Qarase
responded: "That's a good question." Asked about any recent
dialogue with RFMF senior officers, Qarase said he has spoken
only with Teleni, who indicated the RFMF is "receptive to
dialogue when the Commander gets back."

Other Fiji political party responses
--------------

9. (C) The UK rep reported that he and his EU colleagues met
with FLP leader Chaudhry today and urged a public statement
in support of rule of law. (Note: Chaudhry just returned
from a trip to China and has made no public comment in Fiji
yet.) Chaudhry made no commitment but said he would discuss
the issue with colleagues. Qarase noted that Opposition
Leader Beddoes has made a variety of comments, though his
most recent have been helpful. Asked about a series of
National Alliance Party (NAP) news quotes supportive of
Bainimarama, Qarase said "those are the people behind the
Commander." (Note: The head of the NAP is former RFMF
Commander Ratu Epeli Ganilau. The newly formed NAP did
abysmally in the May elections, after styling itself as the
multi-ethnic alternative.)

Invoking Biketewa?
--------------

10. (C) Qarase turned to overseas governments and measures he
hopes they can endorse to help calm Fiji. He noted the

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Pacific Island Forum's Biketewa Declaration (see ref B).
Asked to comment, PIF SecGen Urwin stressed that any action
would have to be at the initiative of the Fiji Government. A
first step could be to convene a meeting of Forum Foreign
Ministers. He said doing so quickly could offer "preemptive"
value, and he suggested to hold such a meeting in Fiji. A
briefing by the Fiji Government would be the first agenda
item. Outcomes could be a request for expressions of concern
and support, an affirmation of the importance of resolving
Fiji's problem for the region as a whole, and a call on the
Commander to abide by constitutional processes. The
Australian, PNG, and New Zealand High Commissioners all said
their Governments are positive about such a meeting. Qarase
said he needs "a short while" to consider whether to invoke
Biketewa.

Urging PKO, mil-aid, and travel restrictions on RFMF
-------------- --------------

11. (C) The PM urged foreign governments, if Bainimarama
continues his threats: (1) to "make clear" the Army "can't
believe participation in international peacekeeping
operations (PKO) will be unaffected;" (2) to spell out to
RFMF senior officers that another effect could be a
"scale-down" or "seizure" of military aid; and (3) another
effect could be a restriction on travel of senior RFMF
officers to our countries. Australian High Commissioner
Rawson responded that FM Downer has expressed support for
such moves that would hurt the RFMF directly. PIF SecGen
Urwin raised a concern about implications for RAMSI. Rawson
suggested that RAMSI is "regional," not "international."

Paranoia within
--------------

12. (C) Qarase also asked the diplomats to only engage with
the CEO of the PM's office, Jioji Kotobalavu, on any issues
concerning the RFMF, and not to engage with the CEOs of Home
Affairs or Foreign Affairs. (Note: both those CEOs have an
RFMF background.) The UK, Australia, and U.S. noted that
their DATTS undertake extensive contacts with RFMF officers
and have even increased those efforts in recent days,
including with reminders of the proper military role in a
democracy. It appeared Qarase had no objection to that.

Phone call with A/S Hill "positive"
--------------

13. (C) Qarase confirmed that he and EAP A/S Hill had a phone
conversation today. He told the group it was a very positive
discussion in which the PM made the points (see para 11)
about how foreign governments might assist. Qarase said A/S
Hill was "very supportive" in response. Qarase said Canada's
PM plans a phone call on Saturday.

Comment
--------------

14. (C) No doubt Qarase is putting his own spin on the
current crisis. He deserves blame for coddling "Fijian
nationalists" involved in the events of 2000, for introducing
controversial bills like the RTUB without prior consultation,
for sometimes poking his finger unnecessarily in military
eyes, etc. That said, he did bring consideration of the
first RTUB to a grinding halt when much public reaction was
negative. It will be instructive to see what the new RTUB
actually looks like and whether it really has removed the
"amnesty" aspect. Qarase has also encouraged public debate
on the land-use bills. And he did win free and fair
elections, with Bainimarama and the RFMF actively campaigning
against him, in May. In this morning's budget address to
Parliament, the Finance Minister announced about a 10%
increase in the RFMF's budget for 2007. The picture is
mixed.


15. (C) Unfortunately, Commodore Bainimarama has consistently
presumed the worst; and, of course, his vocal threats to
remove the lawfully elected government if it does not accept
his dictates are blatantly unconstitutional conduct for a
military commander in Fiji. With Bainimarama's expected
return to Fiji tomorrow (Nov. 4),the civil-military
temperature may well rise even higher. Clearly Qarase has
appreciated USG public statements of support for rule of law
in Fiji, as he appreciated his phone call today with A/S
Hill.

Action request

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--------------

16. (C) We need guidance on how to respond to Qarase's
requests (para 11) for foreign governments to threaten, and
as necessary implement, restrictions on engagement with the
RFMF. The RFMF is already well aware from Fiji's past coups
that U.S. law would cut off military assistance. Threatening
to act pre-coup in such ways would be new, attention-grabbing
steps. Per Ref C, the Australian and New Zealand High
Commissions have previously raised with us concern about the
invitation Bainimarama has accepted to attend PACOM's CHODS
conference in KL this month at USG expense. See Ref C para
11 for Embassy comments on the issue. We note that, after
the May election, the Commodore stayed publicly quiet for
four months, until the day after the Pacific Armies
Management Seminar (PAMS) ended in Nadi. He can contain
himself if properly motivated. Whether a broader travel
restriction makes sense needs discussion. That would catch
senior-officers' attention; but it would also rob the U.S. of
opportunities to influence at schools and conferences. Such
interactions have enhanced RFMF abilities to operate beside
U.S. and coalition partners in PKO deployments. However,
thus far in this crisis, it does not appear past educational
interactions of RFMF senior officers with U.S. institutions
have succeeded at another important goal: respect for "rule
of law."


17. (C) On threatening support re PKO, the most obvious USG
bilateral focus would be MFO Sinai, where we finance Fiji's
way. Pay grades higher than ours must consider whether the
usefulness to USG interests of Fiji's participation in the
MFO overrides our interest in attempting to deter RFMF
destabilization at home. There is no doubt that all levels
of the RFMF see PKO participation as very important
professionally and financially. We know MFO HQ in Rome would
want to be involved in that discussion. We note that the
Fiji Government has under consideration participation in the
Coalition of the Willing in Iraq (MNFI). We surmise from
Qarase's meeting today that MNFI participation will not
happen so long as Bainimarama is continuing his outbursts.
DINGER