FIJI'S CIV-MIL SITUATION AWAITS NEXT STEPS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SUVA 000469

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/02/2016
TAGS: PREL MARR CASC ASEC FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI'S CIV-MIL SITUATION AWAITS NEXT STEPS

REF: SUVA 466 (AND PREVIOUS)

Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D).

Summary
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1. (C) Republic of Fiji Military Forces (RFMF) Commander
Bainimarama is returning early to Fiji. On the way, he has
had a series of media interviews, reiterating past rhetoric:
that he does not intend a coup but that bloodshed will come
if Prime Minister Qarase fails to accede to military demands.
Vice President Madreiwiwi is fatalistic, believing all
concrete RFMF demands are "pretext" for an inevitable coup.
Qarase is worn down but is still searching for solutions that
might save the day. Police Commissioner Hughes reportedly
believes there will be no coup because the RFMF is not united
behind their Commander and they have agreed to sideline
Bainimarama, one way or another. We note in comment that,
while Bainimarama may be simply exerting pressure to reform
the Qarase Government, the VP and PM both seem to believe
that the Commodore's real intent is to take power. The
Hughes scenario would be terrific if, repeat if, the military
really is on board. End summary.

Bainimarama on the way back to Fiji
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2. (C) It appears RFMF Commander Bainimarama is on his way
back to Fiji from the Middle East. He has skipped scheduled
stops in Kuwait/Iraq and reportedly was attempting to reroute
to fly Korea Air from Cairo to Seoul to Nadi. Another report
suggests the new route might be via London and Los Angeles.
Reportedly, Bainimarama is deliberately evading Australia,
fearing he might be arrested there. Latest reports are that
he is to arrive Nadi early tomorrow, Friday Nov. 3. Armed
RFMF troops reportedly are already in Nadi to escort him to
Suva. Police do not intend to interfere.

Thursday calm; Friday is budget day
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3. (C) Today (Thurs, Nov. 2) is the sixth anniversary of the
put-down of an RFMF mutiny that endangered Bainimarama's
life. Tomorrow (Fri, Nov. 3) is the opening of Parliament's
budget session. There have been rumors that one of the two
days would be "coup day." Today has been calm in the
streets. Tomorrow may be also, though a rumor is floating
that the RFMF may be planning a "show of force" march through
the streets from the main barracks to Parliament House just
in advance of the budget-session opening. Acting RFMF
Commander Capt. (Navy) Teleni has denied there will be any
march tomorrow.

Media interviews: more troubling rhetoric
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4. (SBU) Bainimarama's travel schedule has not slowed down
his interactions with regional media. Fiji, Australia, and
New Zealand radio stations have played interviews today in
which the Commodore denied that he ever set a three-week
deadline for PM Qarase to reform or resign, and he gave
assurance that he does not intend a coup. He added,
"Dialogue is fine, as long as the Government meets our
demands." With that, "Everyone can kiss and make up and live
happily ever after." In another interview, he said, "The
last thing we want to do is have violence, the last thing we
want to do is have bloodshed, but Qarase is pointing us in
that direction. The fact that he does not want to accede to
our request, the fact that he does not want to resign, and
his call to the Great Council of Chiefs means to the military
that he has put us in a situation where there is going to be
bloodshed and violence." In yet another interview,
Bainimarama suggested that, if Qarase refuses to accept RFMF
advice, including to clean up corruption, to remove Members
of Parliament who were involved in the 2000 coup, and to
withdraw controversial bills that "could set Fiji back
hundreds of years and cause Fijians to hack each other to
pieces," the PM must resign. Needless to say, such rhetoric
keeps people on edge.

Meetings in the works
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5. (C) Acting RFMF Commander Teleni and Land Forces Commander
Col. Driti are to meet with PM Qarase late this (Thurs)
afternoon. The CEO of the PM's office suggested to us the
RFMF officers signaled some positive news would be
forthcoming. The CEO added that the PM intends to meet with
the Chiefs of Mission for Australia, New Zealand, and the
U.S., plus the Secretary General of the Pacific Forum,

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probably tomorrow (Fri) to give thanks for messages of
support for rule of law and to provide an update on Fiji's
situation.

A depressed and fatalistic VP
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6. (C) Vice President Madreiwiwi told a good source today
that he accepts the PM's charge that the President and he
exhibited weakness when they backed down from attempting to
suspend Bainimarama earlier this week (refs). The VP feels
justified, though, in that he "put off the inevitable for a
short while." He added that the suspension order on
Bainimarama will be rescinded. He suggested fatalistically:
"que sera sera." Madreiwiwi reportedly accepts that the
Great Council of Chiefs (GCC) meeting which PM Qarase has
called for next week may have on its agenda replacement of
both the President and VP. While that move could serve as a
"pretext" for military intervention, he said, "almost
anything may be a pretext at this point."

Police Commissioner describes plan to resolve all
-------------- --------------

7. (C) Police Commissioner Hughes, on the other hand,
described today a plan intended to provide a way out for
Fiji. He revealed to a good source that the RFMF's Teleni
and Driti (see para 5) have agreed with the Government to be
the conduit of an offer for Bainimarama to become Fiji's High
Commissioner to London or Wellington, his choice. Hughes
reports that if Bainimarama refuses, the RFMF senior
leadership, now united against any coup, have agreed that
Bainimarama will appear before the Police to answer charges
of sedition. Hughes believes that the RFMF has been shaken
by the experience of turning aside President Iloilo's
suspension order of Bainimarama. The timing was wrong for
that, with Bainimarama out of the country. However, once the
Commodore is back, the above plan is seen as acceptable to
the military.

Comment
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8. (C) The people of Fiji and Embassy Suva are taking life
one day at a time at the moment, awaiting Bainimarama's
return. It is certainly possible that all the threats have
been simply intended to force reforms on the Qarase
Government. It is possible that Qarase, with GCC cover, will
back down on the controversial bills, one of which (the
so-called reconciliation bill) hasn't even been introduced
yet in the present Parliament (though a new, and supposedly
dramatically improved version is on the drawing boards). The
other two bills in Bainimarama's sights (both relating to
ethnic-Fijian land issues) have been introduced, but have
been taking plenty of flak in committee hearings. So, if the
bills are the key to satisfying Bainimarama, a "compromise"
may be possible, and a resumed, one-sided "dialogue" may
achieve it.


9. (C) However, some, like the VP and PM perceive
Bainimarama's specific "requests" to be "pretext." They
think, regardless of any efforts to find a compromise, the
Commodore has decided to force a change of government, now or
soon. Qarase thinks Bainimarama wants to be dictator; others
a bit more charitably think he sincerely believes that
removing Qarase and his "cronies" is essential if Fiji is to
have a peaceful, prosperous future. Since the people didn't
do the job in last May's elections, the RFMF, in that view,
must do it now, regardless of the consequences for Fiji's
tourism industry and the negative international reactions
that would ensue.


10. (C) Whether the bulk of the RFMF would actually execute a
coup order remains unclear. The scenario Commissioner Hughes
describes depends on the actual state of affairs within the
military. We know Bainimarama has been offered diplomatic
postings before, including to Wellington, and has turned them
down. If, and it is a big if, the troops really are shaken
by recent events, if they really would just say "no" to a
coup order, and if they would turn over Bainimarama to
authorities, that would be a wonderful solution. We will
hope for that and keep our powder dry.
DINGER