FIJI VICE PRESIDENT DESCRIBES "HOLDING ACTION;" PM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SUVA 000463

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/01/2016
TAGS: PREL MARR CASC ASEC FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI VICE PRESIDENT DESCRIBES "HOLDING ACTION;" PM
THINKING ABOUT OPTIONS

REF: A. SUVA 462

B. SUVA 460 (AND PREVIOUS)

Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D).

Summary
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1. (C) Fiji Vice President Madreiwiwi confirmed that the
suspension order for Republic of Fiji Military Forces (RFMF)
Commander Bainimarama remains in force, though events
(reftels) have left things in a "holding pattern" pending
Bainimarama's return to Fiji. In the meantime, Bainimarama
has told the press that he still intends to ensure PM Qarase
"and his cronies" step down. Bainimarama also attacked the
U.S., EU, Australia, and New Zealand for supporting Qarase's
"corrupt" government. Madreiwiwi believes it critically
important for Fiji not to endure another coup. He says the
Qarase government will need to "eat humble pie for now." PM
Qarase is very disappointed with how Madreiwiwi handled the
suspension issue. He reportedly sees no chance the
suspension will be implemented. Qarase is seeking advice
from Fiji's Great Council of Chiefs and from his Cabinet; but
he senses that Bainimarama's primary aim is to seize power.
Australia has reportedly warned Bainimarama that it will
consider "all options" if a coup occurs. End summary.

VP says suspension issue awaits Bainimarama return
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2. (C) VP Madreiwiwi confirmed to us on Nov. 1 that President
Iloilo did indeed issue orders on Oct. 31 suspending Republic
of Fiji Military Forces (RFMF) Commander Bainimarama and
installing Col. Meli Saubulinayau as Acting Commander. He
said the suspension order is "still in place," though
yesterday's events (ref A) mean a "holding action" is now
under way. "We will wait and see what happens when the
Commander returns." The outcome "could go either way." He
noted that the suspension was triggered by Bainimarama's
efforts to subvert the elected government, and he observed
that the RFMF's thwarting of the suspension is additional
evidence.

Regret, but push was coming to shove
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3. (C) Madreiwiwi wondered aloud if moving against
Bainimarama while he was out of town was a mistake. It gave
RFMF officers an excuse to seek delay. He expressed regret
that the offices of the President and VP are now "compromised
regarding the military." But, he added, "push was coming to
shove anyway." (Note: he was undoubtedly referring to
reliable reports per Ref B that the RFMF has been preparing
for a coup, perhaps as early as this week.) The President
was inevitably going to have to oppose the military's
position.

Calm heads required; doubts about Bainimarama's
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4. (C) Madreiwiwi noted that "calm heads" will be needed to
find a solution for the current impasse. On the other hand,
it is obvious that Bainimarama is "an angry man." Madreiwiwi
referred to a front-page article in the 11/1 Fiji Sun in
which Bainimarama is quoted as saying "I'll be back to see
that Qarase and his cronies step down." (Note: in the
article, Bainimarama decried corruption in the Qarase
government and said "we (the Army) are the only hope of the
silent majority." Bainimarama reportedly alleged that
"corrupt and unconstitutional practices have been supported
by the European Union, Australia, New Zealand, and the US
governments. These countries are saying it is a
democratically elected government. Sure, that's fine, but
what about the corruptive practices. That means these
countries condone such practices....Can Australia, New
Zealand, or the US allow people who are involved in the
overthrow of a democratically elected government to sit in
positions of power?...these countries have not experienced
any coups, so they have not experienced that." End note.)
Madreiwiwi found Bainimarama's reference to a "silent
majority" particularly ironic, suggesting the Commodore has
little sense of the present context (in which Qarase won May
elections with huge ethnic-Fijian popular support after
Bainimarama and the RFMF campaigned loudly for Fijians to
vote against Qarase's party). Madreiwiwi added his view
that, while Fiji always has suffered from corruption,
Qarase's government has been better than most.

Need ensure no coup

SUVA 00000463 002 OF 002


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5. (C) We asked if Madreiwiwi sees any helpful role for the
USG at present? He said that the key, at the moment, is to
ensure there is no military takeover. That would be "a
disaster, catastrophic." Madreiwiwi said he is urging the PM
and Government to "eat humble pie for now; they just have
to."

PM Qarase disappointed; sees Bainimarama as dictator
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6. (C) We hear that PM Qarase is very disappointed with the
role Madreiwiwi played yesterday. Qarase says the VP
"buckled" after an influential former military commander
(Manueli) "got to him." Qarase implied that if Madreiwiwi
had held his ground in the face of initial RFMF resistance,
Bainimarama's suspension could have been formally
implemented, "but he didn't." Qarase sees President Iloilo
as "gone." There is no expectation he will carry out the
suspension of Bainimarama when he returns. Qarase is seeking
advice from Fiji's Great Council of Chiefs (GCC),since the
controversial bills before Parliament that Bainimarama says
are at the heart of his complaints were drafted "at the
request of the GCC and the Fijian people." If the GCC is
prepared to ditch the bills, Qarase will go along. We are
told Qarase believes the bills are really just a pretext
though. He believes Bainimarama really wants to be a
dictator. "He has a slate of ministers lined up and is ready
to go." Reportedly Qarase is to hold an emergency Cabinet
meeting today.

Aussies considering "all options" if coup
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7. (C) Our Australian colleagues in Suva tell us the Aussie
Chief of Defense had a phone conversation with Bainimarama on
Oct. 31. The message reportedly was: if you undertake
illegal action to remove the Fiji government, Australia would
be forced to consider all options including direct action."
Bainimarama's response reportedly was, per usual: you
foreigners just don't understand.

Comment
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8. (C) A psychiatrist would have a field day with
Bainimarama, who has no difficulty at all decrying (with
justification) the Qarase Government's accepting of coup
figures from 2000 back into politics but in the same breath
seeing nothing untoward in preparing for his own illegal
removal of the freshly reelected Qarase Government and in
defying the lawful suspension order from his Commander in
Chief. At the moment, it appears the President, VP, and PM
will accede to Bainimarama's pressure by not risking an
attempt to enforce the suspension order. The press interview
makes it appear that Bainimarama continues to intend Qarase's
forced resignation. Washington's media guidance reaffirms
our useful message on the appropriate civil-military
relationship. Bainimarama will not like that, but we do need
to keep reinforcing our strong anti-coup message.
DINGER