Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06SUVA460
2006-10-30 15:29:00
SECRET
Embassy Suva
Cable title:  

FIJI'S CIVIL-MILITARY CRISIS AT A TIPPING POINT?

Tags:  PREL MARR CASC FJ 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO4463
OO RUEHPB
DE RUEHSV #0460/01 3031529
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
O 301529Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY SUVA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3388
INFO RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL IMMEDIATE
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI IMMEDIATE
RHHJJAA/JICPAC HONOLULU HI IMMEDIATE
RUEHGB/AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD PRIORITY 0047
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY 1323
RUEHPB/AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY PRIORITY 0926
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON PRIORITY 1111
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 SUVA 000460 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2016
TAGS: PREL MARR CASC FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI'S CIVIL-MILITARY CRISIS AT A TIPPING POINT?

REF: A. SUVA 444 (AND PREVIOUS)

B. USDAO SUVA 180007Z OCT 06

Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D).

Summary
-------
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 SUVA 000460

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2016
TAGS: PREL MARR CASC FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI'S CIVIL-MILITARY CRISIS AT A TIPPING POINT?

REF: A. SUVA 444 (AND PREVIOUS)

B. USDAO SUVA 180007Z OCT 06

Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D).

Summary
--------------

1. (S) Fiji President Iloilo is being asked to endorse
suspension of Republic of Fiji Military Forces (RFMF)
Commander Bainimarama and to name an interim replacement.
The context is "advanced preparations" for a coup, that could
take place as early as late this week, according to Fiji's
Police Commissioner Hughes. Bainimarama is currently on a
visit to the MidEast. A shipment of ammunition arrived in
Suva last weekend, and Hughes has so far blocked the RFMF
from receiving it. RFMF reserves have been ordered to report
for duty on Nov. 2, purportedly a routine operation. We
comment that how Iloilo will act is crucial, but not clear.
How the RFMF and the Fiji public would react to a coup order
is similarly not completely knowable. The Embassy is
exercising emergency procedures, just in case; and we have
issued a warden notice for Americans to take care. We seek
Washington and PACOM guidance whether an invitation for
Bainimarama to attend the annual CHODS conference in KL
should be rescinded. End summary.

President asked to endorse Bainimarama suspension
-------------- --------------

2. (S) According to Fiji Police Commissioner Hughes, Prime
Minister Qarase has presented Vice President Madraiwiwi an
order for President Iloilo to endorse that would suspend RFMF
Commander Bainimarama and install Col. Meli Saubulinayau as
Acting Commander. Madraiwiwi is to meet with Iloilo today,
Tuesday, Oct. 31, to try to convince him to sign. If Iloilo
does chop, the leadership changes would be effective
immediately. Col. Meli reportedly has agreed to implement
once the President signs, and he believes he can win over his
RFMF colleagues.

Reportedly "advanced preparations" for a coup
--------------

3. (S) Per reftels, Bainimarama has ratcheted up
civil-military tensions in recent weeks. Hughes told us
police informants in the RFMF are certain "advanced
preparations" are under way for a coup that could take place
as early as this week. Nov. 2 is reportedly the sixth

anniversary of a failed mutiny within the RFMF that followed
the coup of 2000 and threatened Bainimarama's life. Nov. 3
is the opening of Parliament's budget session. Past Fiji
coups have been initiated with takeovers of Parliament.

Bainimarama on his way to Iraq
--------------

4. (S) Bainimarama remains on overseas travel. He is due to
enter Iraq from Kuwait on Nov. 2 and is expected back in Fiji
on Nov. 8. In the past, he has shown a propensity to want to
be visibly in charge at key moments, which would suggest any
RFMF move might not take place until after the 8th. However,
the reported advanced preparations by RFMF senior officers
leave open an earlier scenario.

Police Commissioner makes contingency plans
--------------

5. (S) Hughes told us he has already prepared sealed orders
to be dispensed throughout the police force if a coup takes
place and he (Hughes) is displaced. The Police are not to
resist the RFMF initially. That would be futile. They are
to hunker down, attempt to maintain basic public order, wait
for inevitable cracks to form in whatever mechanism
Bainimarama would install, and then help organize efforts to
bring Fiji back to constitutional government.

Police v. RFMF on ammo shipment
--------------

6. (S) Fiji media have reported that Police Commissioner
Hughes has denied RFMF access to a container load of
ammunition that arrived at the Suva wharf from Korea last
weekend. Hughes said publicly it would be "irresponsible" to
release the shipment absent assurances from RFMF leadership
that the ammo would not be used to destabilize the
government. Hughes told us he made the call on his own,
wanting to be able to justify his actions if some future
accountability review board calls him to testify; but he said
the Qarase Government has not objected to his stance. An
RFMF source informed us that Bainimarama has advised not to
force the issue as yet. When an RFMF contingent went to the

SUVA 00000460 002 OF 002


wharf with its paperwork Oct. 30, Police declined to release
the shipment and the RFMF troops left quietly.

Calling in the reserves
--------------

7. (C) The RFMF has publicly announced that all 3000 of its
territorial (reserve) forces are to march into camps on Nov.
2 in what is billed as a routine, annual training exercise.
Such exercises have taken place in the past, the last one
just a year ago; however, given the current tensions, the
public sees the timing as ominous.

Comment
--------------

8. (S) President Iloilo is "Commander in Chief." If he takes
a stand and signs Qarase's documents, RFMF senior officers
would clearly be acting treasonously if they opposed. Col.
Meli is highly respected within the RFMF, so he is a good
choice as interim replacement. A key issue in this scenario
is Iloilo's will. If Iloilo does not go along, word will
reach Bainimarama rapidly, and he may well be even more
determined to act against Qarase.


9. (S) How much loyalty Bainimarama can depend on within the
RFMF is an open question, as is how much enthusiasm there
would be for a coup in the broader community. Qarase, an
ethnic Fijian, won well over 80 percent of the vote among
ethnic Fijians in last May's elections. The RFMF is almost
entirely made up of ethnic Fijians. It has seemed that a
large majority of the populace has been enthusiastic about
the multi-party cabinet that Qarase has engineered. On the
other hand, there are significant groupings that believe
Qarase caters too much to Fijian "nationalists," that allege
significant corruption, and that disapprove of controversial
bills before Parliament.


10. (SBU) The Embassy has been exercising its emergency
procedures, just in case. With CA advice, we revised our
Consular Information Sheet and issued a warden notice last
week that highlights increased tensions that could result in
unrest and that urges American citizens to be careful.

Action query
--------------

11. (S) Commodore Bainimarama has accepted a PACOM invitation
to travel to Kuala Lumpur, at USG expense, for the annual
PACOM CHODS conference, departing Suva Nov. 12. Given his
recent anti-democratic activities in Fiji, we request that
Washington and PACOM consider rescinding that invitation for
this year. The Aussies High Commission in Suva indicated
they favor rescinding. If the proposed suspension takes
place or if a coup takes place, the invitation to Bainimarama
would not be appropriate. An invitation to the replacement
would be OK, though the atmosphere in Fiji might make such a
trip doubtful. If a stalemate continues, the CHODS trip for
Bainimarama would send very unfortunate signals to
pro-democracy elements in Fiji, who need all the
encouragement we can provide.
DINGER