TONGAN NATIONAL COMMITTEE'S REPORT CALLS FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SUVA 000433

SIPDIS

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/13/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM TN
SUBJECT: TONGAN NATIONAL COMMITTEE'S REPORT CALLS FOR
ELECTED LEGISLATURE

REF: A. A) SUVA 262


B. B)SUVA 233

C. C)SUVA 100

D. D)SUVA 97

E. E)SUVA 28

F. F)05 SUVA 613

Classified By: AMBASSADOR LARRY M. DINGER. SECTIONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).

Summary
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1. (C) The National Committee on Political Reform (NCPR)
submitted its report to Tonga's Parliament on Oct. 3. The
King received a copy a month ago. The report says Tonga's
people want political reform but also want to protect
traditional culture. The report recommends an all-elected,
26-member parliament, with an increase from nine to seventeen
representatives directly elected by the general public. The
33 nobles would continue to elect nine representatives from
among their number. The King would select the Prime
Minister, and the PM would select the Cabinet, all from among
the Members of Parliament. Reactions so far have been fairly
positive. The new King and PM Sevele aim to appease both
pro-democracy advocates and royalists by focusing reform, for
now, on election/selection mechanics and by not formally
addressing royal prerogatives. How long that strategy can
succeed will depend on the King's willingness to voluntarily
accept a subdued role. End Summary.

Committee Basics
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2. (U) In October 2005, after a large pro-democracy march and
petition, Tonga's Parliament formed the NCPR, which in
December began extensive consultations with communities
throughout Tonga, as well as with the large Tongan expatriate
populations in New Zealand, Australia, and the United States.
The NCPR chairman was the king's nephew, Prince
Tu'ipelehake, until his untimely death in an auto accident in
California in July. East-West Center Pacific Islands
Development Program Director Dr. Sitiveni Halapua was
influential in developing the consultation process, and he
authored the Committee's report which currently is available
only in Tongan. Halapua is working on an English version.

Presenting the Report
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3. (U) Tonga's now-deceased king, Taufa'ahau Tupou IV, and
current king, Siaosi Tupou V, received the draft report on
August 30. A week and a half later, the king passed away.
The new king has not made any public comment regarding the
report. He previously indicated to the Ambassador that he
supports political reforms but intends to retain some royal
prerogatives (Refs A and D). His sister Princess Pilolevu
while opening the 2006 Legislative Assembly in June stated
that the NCPR had the "full support of Government." However,
she cautioned against following the examples of countries
that "rushed into political reforms without the prerequisite
preparations and the inevitable disastrous consequences."
Halapua presented the report to Parliament on October 3.
Following the initial presentation, Parliament has been
examining the report and asking questions to the Committee.

Proposed Changes
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4. (U) The report judges that Tongans are united in their
desire for political change, but they also value highly the
traditional social structure of the King, Nobles, and the
people. The main reform proposal is a 26 member, all-elected
parliament. Currently, the 34-person Parliament is composed
of nine directly elected People's Representatives, nine
Nobles' Representatives elected by Tonga's 33 Nobles, and 16
members of Cabinet. The King selects all Cabinet members,
and until recently they all came from outside Parliament, and
became Parliament members on selection. In effect,
historically, the King controlled parliament with a large
majority: his Cabinet and the Noble's Reps. The NCPR
proposal would retain the nine Noble's seats and their
restricted electorate, would eliminate Cabinet selections
from outside Parliament, and would add eight new People's Rep
seats, bringing the People's Rep total to 17. People's Reps
for the main island, Tongatapu, would increase most
dramatically, from three to seven, but Tongatapu would still
be under-represented.


5. (C) Under the current system, the King appoints the Prime
Minister, who traditionally was a royal or noble. Current PM
Sevele is the first commoner in the role since a British
subject in the late 1800s. The report proposes to limit the

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King's choice of PM to Members of Parliament. Until the last
year and a half, the King selected members of his Cabinet
without constraint, though not from among elected MPs. The
NCPR proposes that the PM appoint his Cabinet entirely from
among MPs. Reportedly, the NCPR does not address the King's
currently broad substantive powers, though pro-democracy
advocates have urged a limited, constitutional monarchy, akin
to those of Japan or the UK.

Reactions
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6. (U) The report's recommendations would certainly move
Tonga toward a representative democracy, continuing the
political reforms that have been taking place gradually
during the past year, including the naming of commoner Sevele
to be PM and Sevele's choosing new members of the Cabinet,
with the King reportedly providing an automatic blessing.
Parliament is currently looking closely at the report, and
questions have focused in particular on the constriction of
the king's appointive powers. By and large, public reaction
seems to be muted but positive. Tonga's Cabinet is
reportedly creating a nine-member commission (3 from Cabinet,
3 Nobles, and 3 People's Reps) to consider next steps. We
also hear that pro-democracy parliamentarians will be
introducing a bill calling for an early-2007 referendum.


7. (C) During the Ambassador's visit to Tonga for the late
King's funeral, before the NCPR report had been made public,
longtime democracy activist Akilisi Pohiva, who had heard
leaks about the report, was unusually upbeat. He indicated
that Tonga's reform process seems to be moving "in a better
direction." He intends to continue complaining publicly, but
mostly because he believes every government needs a vocal
opposition. Another Peoples Rep, Clive Edwards, remained
very skeptical, noting it remains to be seen how much of the
King's broad powers will actually be curtailed. PM Sevele
was keeping cards close to the vest, though he did mention a
close-hold proposal to expand the number of People's Rep
seats in Parliament and to apportion most of them to
Tongatapu. Sevele reiterated past assurances that he and the
King have a plan to expand democracy in Tonga and to do so at
a measured pace that will not threaten stability. (In the
last few days, Sevele has said publicly that he may propose
increasing People's Reps to 14 instead of 17.) Sevele told
us that each time the King formally accedes to PM decisions
on personnel and policy issues, precedent is established for
a new "de facto" constitutional monarchy with limited powers,
all without formal amendment of the Constitution. Sevele
indicated any effort to adjust the Nobles' political role
would be "too hard" for now.

Comment
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8. (C) The NCPR's wide-reaching consultations have given the
reform report an air of legitimacy. The lack of any major
outcry from the pro-democracy camp and Pohiva's private
positive comments are good signals. The sentiments of
royalists are less clear; but the report's light touch
regarding the King's powers and the emphasis on preserving
the current cultural hierarchy may do the trick. The
democratic ideal would be for Tonga to undertake an immediate
transition to a formally limited "constitutional monarchy."
Some activists will continue to press for that outcome. PM
Sevele, buttressed by the NCPR report, has opted for a more
gradual reform pace, attempting to appease both reform and
royalist sentiments.


9. (C) A key factor for the success of Sevele's approach will
be the royal family's willingness to be bound by new
precedents that informally constrain power. The current King
appears ready, to an extent, to be so constrained. Other
royals appear less flexible in their thinking. The King's
brother Prince Lavaka'ata, who recently was formally
proclaimed Crown Prince, gave every indication last year when
he, as PM, refused compromise during a public-service strike
that he would stubbornly protect royal powers against
democratic encroachment. If, one way or another, the
perception of reform ends up appearing stymied, those
segments of the Tonga public who vocally sought immediate
democracy a year ago would likely become intensely frustrated
yet again.
DINGER