FIJI CIVIL-MILITARY FRICTIONS RE-HEAT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SUVA 000425

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/12/2016
TAGS: MARR PREL FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI CIVIL-MILITARY FRICTIONS RE-HEAT

REF: A. SUVA 401


B. SUVA 393

C. SUVA 254

D. SUVA 26

Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D).

Summary
--------------

1. (C) Republic of Fiji Military Forces (RFMF) Commander
Bainimarama has resumed his public blasts at PM Qarase's
government and has issued not-so-veiled threats that Qarase
must step down or face the consequences. Current motivators
for Bainimarama may include controversial bills coming before
Parliament; Qarase's request for a Supreme Court opinion on
the RFMF's domestic-political powers; the nomination of a
Colonel, who tried to remove Bainimarama last January, to be
Prison Commissioner; and revelations in a current court case
that suggest officials in the Qarase government of 2001
engaged in corrupt practices. Bainimarama's current threats
may just be bluff, as in the past; or, given his seeming
degree of irritation, they could be for real. A constraint
must be the reality that past coups in Fiji were against
ethnic-Indian-dominated governments. Qarase's
ethnic-Fijian-led government would raise new and difficult
issues for the ethnic-Fijian RFMF. Another factor is that
Bainimarama is scheduled to be on travel for most of the next
month. Embassy Suva is monitoring the situation closely.
End summary.

RFMF Commander resumes public blasts at Government
-------------- --------------

2. (C) After four months of relative calm in the often
fractious relationship between RFMF Commander Bainimarama and
Fiji's civilian leadership, Bainimarama has resumed public
outbursts. In late September (refs A and B),he used the
occasion of a "passing out parade" for a group of high school
military cadets to lambaste PM Qarase for a "qoliqoli" bill
on indigenous foreshore rights. Bainimarama warned that the
bill would spur conflict within ethnic-Fijian communities and
could take Fijians back to the days of grass skirts and
cannibalism. In a follow-on interview with the Fiji Sun
newspaper Bainimarama reportedly suggested U.S. encouragement
of frank and open discussion at the mid-September Pacific
Armies Management Seminar (PAMS) in Nadi motivated his
speaking out publicly yet again. We countered that claim by
reaffirming publicly the strongly held USG belief that a
military must be subordinate to the elected civilian
leadership in a democracy.

"All powerful" military's not-so-veiled threats
-------------- --

3. (C) When Bainimarama returned from a visit to UN
Headquarters in New York at the end of September, he
continued his inflammatory public remarks. In media
interviews on Columbus Day weekend, he expressed frustration
that PM Qarase has failed to listen to the RFMF's views on a
series of issues. In particular, Bainimarama called on the
PM and several of his Ministers to resign because of
allegations they were implicated in an agricultural-funding
scam dating from 2001 and currently subject of a criminal
trial. He reportedly said if the Ministers don't resign, "we
will deal with this." In another interview, Bainimarama
reportedly said "the RFMF is all powerful and has outlived a
lot of governments and people. In the next couple of weeks,
we will find out who does the huffing and puffing." At the
time, Qarase was in Australia for a business conference. In
a media interview he reportedly dismissed the resignation
call and reiterated his interest in curbing such military
outbursts via a Supreme Court advisory opinion on the
military's constitutional roles. Opposition Leader Beddoes
and former PM and Opposition Leader Chaudhry issued
statements that expressed a degree of understanding for
Bainimarama's frustrations and support for his call that
politicians implicated in corrupt practices must resign.

Motivating factors: controversial bills
--------------

4. (C) Several political/security factors probably play into
Bainimarama's renewed media campaign. First, Qarase has
introduced two controversial bills (qoliqoli and land-claims
tribunals) to Parliament, despite Bainimarama's firm advice
not to do so. A controversial "truth and reconciliation"
bill waits in the wings. Fiji's multi-party Cabinet
experiment, dating from May elections, so far has generated a

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surprisingly cooperative atmosphere (ref C); but the
controversial bills will test the Cabinet's resiliency and
ability to work through tough issues. Bainimarama clearly
has no trust that PM Qarase will, in the end, display good
faith in handling the bills.

Possible Supreme Court advisory opinion
--------------

5. (C) Second, a few weeks ago, Qarase formally asked
President Iloilo to seek a Supreme Court opinion on the
RFMF's legitimate roles under Fiji's current Constitution.
Prior to the May elections at a time when Bainimarama had
RFMF truth squads going from village to village to campaign
against Qarase's party, the PM announced that, if reelected,
he would seek the judicial opinion. Bainimarama believes the
RFMF retains broad national-security powers it gave itself
under the military-drafted 1990 constitution that followed
two coups in 1987. Most legal experts believe Fiji's 1997
Constitution deleted the broad RFMF powers and placed the
military in the usual subordinate relationship to the
civilian government in a democracy.


6. (C) A delegation of senior RFMF officers approached
President Iloilo while Bainimarama was in New York,
reportedly to confirm their loyalty to their Commander and to
ask the President not to forward Qarase's request to the
Supreme Court. Bainimarama and Iloilo are close. It was
Bainimarama who secured the Presidency for Iloilo after the
illegal change of government in 2000. On the other hand,
Vice President Madraiwiwi, a lawyer, believes strongly that
the President has no discretion on forwarding a PM's request
to the Court and has so advised Iloilo. For the moment,
Madraiwiwi tells us, the request has gone to the Attorney
General's office for a bit of refining, and it is not to be
transmitted to the Court unless the President gives his
blessing. We are told PM Qarase believes Iloilo will so
bless. The VP hopes that will happen but is not
overconfident.

Court martial or Prison Commissioner?
--------------

7. (C) A third motivation for Bainimarama is that the Qarase
Government recently proposed Col. Baledrokadroka as a
candidate to become Commissioner of Prisons. Baledrokadroka
faces a court-martial within the next few weeks on charges he
attempted to organize an RFMF mutiny against Bainimarama last
January (ref D). There were rumors at the time that
Baledrokadroka's effort was encouraged by the Home Affairs
Ministry. The Prisons nomination could be a reward.
Bainimarama recently stated publicly: "that (assignment) will
not happen." Other RFMF senior officers indicated the same.
Fiji's Public Service Commission, which is labeled "non
partisan," announced on 10/12 that the position is to be
"re-advertized." Bainimarama must be pleased.

Agriculture scam: ministers implicated?
--------------

8. (C) Yet another motivation seems to be the
agriculture-scam trial, now under way in the courtroom of
Justice Shameem. PM Qarase and several Ministers from his
previous government have been called as witnesses. The
defendant is a former Agriculture CEO who allegedly
facilitated pork-barrel transfers to ethnic-Fijian districts
in the lead-up to Fiji's 2001 elections that confirmed
Qarase's place as PM. So far, it is not clear at all that
any Qarase Minister will be indicted, though there are plenty
of rumors of malfeasance from that time. Several newspaper
editorials have pointed out that Bainimarama's call for
resignations appears very premature.

Bainimarama's next steps?
--------------

9. (C) Aside from the motives, what are Bainimarama's likely
next steps? One possibility is that the latest flurry is
simply bluff, yet again. He wants his "national security"
views on political issues to win the day. He figures threats
of force can motivate action. During the past several years,
Bainimarama has repeatedly issued such threats to remove the
Qarase government. To date, he hasn't implemented them.


10. (C) On the other hand, Bainimarama seems at the moment,
given the above-listed motivations, to be truly piqued and to
have a degree of support from most of his hand-picked senior
officers. Many of them have publicly backed Bainimarama's
red line on the Baledrokadroka nomination. Many of them

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reportedly joined the excursion to lobby President Iloilo.
We note that Bainimarama has long had a "coup" scenario
sketched on a blackboard behind a curtain in his office.
That may be for show, but it could also be for real. If
real, travel plans for the next month could delay
implementation. Bainimarama is to depart Oct. 14 on a trip
to Rome (MFO) and the Middle East. Shortly after returning
in early November, he is to be off again to the CHODs
conference in Malaysia.


11. (C) A complicating factor is that, while Fiji has
suffered from a "coup culture," with two military coups in
1987 and a civilian-led one in 2000, all those events were
against ethnic-Indian-dominated governments. Removing the
ethnic-Fijian-dominated Qarase government, that has now won
two elections and last May had the overwhelming support of
ethnic-Fijian voters, could be a very hard sell to the RFMF's
overwhelmingly ethnic-Fijian force.

A calm but watchful approach
--------------

12. (C) At the moment, Suva is calm. VP Madraiwiwi, who
hopes to have another in a series of meetings with
Bainimarama shortly, yesterday advised us not to get overly
excited just yet. We are following that advice, while also
ensuring that our emergency-action processes are tuned up,
just in case.
DINGER