Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06SUVA309
2006-08-09 01:49:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Suva
Cable title:  

TUVALU ELECTIONS: NEW GROUPING TAKES THE REINS

Tags:  PGOV TV 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SUVA 000309 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/09/2031
TAGS: PGOV TV
SUBJECT: TUVALU ELECTIONS: NEW GROUPING TAKES THE REINS


Classified By: Charge Ted A. Mann. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SUVA 000309

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/09/2031
TAGS: PGOV TV
SUBJECT: TUVALU ELECTIONS: NEW GROUPING TAKES THE REINS


Classified By: Charge Ted A. Mann. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Tuvalu's governing coalition of seven
independent MPs supporting PM Maatia Toafa was resoundingly
defeated August 3. AmEmbassy officer observed the elections
and concurs with the general observation that the vote was
free and fair. Based on still unconfirmed reports from
contacts, the outlines of a new coalition, formed around
re-elected opposition MP Kausea Natano, has begun to take
shape. A 48-year-old businessman from the capital island of
Funafuti, Kausea is a former assistant secretary in the
Ministry of Finance. The new grouping, if it holds together
and forms the next government, looks to have an overall
majority of nine in the 15-member parliament, consisting of
four new MPs and five returning Opposition MPs. A rumor
emerged from the initial coalition talks that four members of
the new and returned Opposition MP group favored switching
Tuvalu's 27-year recognition of Taiwan to China. End summary.

Out with the old ...
--------------


2. (C) August 3 elections for a new Parliament in the tiny
island nation of Tuvalu -- ten square miles and approximately
10,000 people -- saw the eight-member government of Maatia
Toafa largely voted out of office. Only Toafa and Speaker of
the House Otinielu Tausi retained their seats. Four sitting
ministers were defeated and a fifth chose not to run for
health reasons. By contrast, five of seven Opposition
members were re-elected. Eight new members of parliament
emerged. Seven of Tuvalu's eight main islands (a ninth has
only 30 inhabitants and votes with a neighbor island) each
elects two MPs, while sparsely populated Nukulaelae, the
eighth, chooses one. MPs are beholden to their local island
communities for their political survival, and family, clan
and island ties are decisive for election. Most contacts and
observers attributed the rejection of so many members of the
previous government to their failure to deliver benefits to
individual island constituencies since the last elections in
July 2002.

and in the New
--------------


3. (C) Of the seven Opposition members of Parliament -- those
MPs not allied to the governing clique -- five were
re-elected. On polling day, contacts told us there were

groupings within the Opposition camp hoping to form
government if the numbers went their way, but no one name
emerged as a leading contender for prime minister Indeed,
many we spoke to said nearly every Opposition PM harbored
ambitions to become the next PM. Joining the returning
Opposition MPs are eight new MPs, not all of whom will be
total newcomer to government. Among these are Tuvalu's
former governor general, Sir Tomu Sione, veteran diplomat
Taukelina Finikaso, the most recent commissioner of police,
Willy Telavi, and former Auditor General Lotoala Metia. One
newcomer, former high school principal Namoliki Sualiki
Neemia, rode to victory when three members of the same family
on the island of Nukulaelae, including two-time PM and
current Minister of Finance, Economic Planning and Industries
Bikenibeu Paeniu, split the votes of family and friends.

A Fair Election with a Blemish
--------------


4. (C) Despite the large turnover in parliament, the
elections were by all accounts and the observations of
Embassy's political officer peaceful, orderly and generally
fair. There were almost no spoiled ballots, no challenges by
candidates observers, and all results were known within about
10 hours of polls closing. Only one issue slightly marred
the otherwise proper running of the elections. Some 30-40
percent of Tuvalu's population resides on Funafuti, but those
not originally from Funafuti typically register to vote for
representatives from their home islands. Registrations are
all publicly posted and any adult of an affected island can
challenge another voter's decision on where to register,
based on provisions of the national election act. According
to government officials, in the case of Nukufetau island,
half of whose population now lives on Funafuti, more than 100
such challenges were lodged against off-island registrants.
The untrained, new local magistrate serving as the
responsible "revising officer" on Nukufetau rejected all of
the challenges. When asked about this, the national

SUVA 00000309 002 OF 003


supervisor of elections told a somewhat incredulous visiting
New Zealand diplomat that he had let the magistrate's rulings
go unchallenged, because to do otherwise would have drawn
into question the authority of the election process. In
fact, the decision lies solely with the revising officer. On
election day on Nukufetau, former Prime Minister and sitting
Minister for Works, Energy, Transport and Communications
Saufatu Sopoanga was defeated for re-election by just 16
votes. According to Tuvalu's public defender, it is possible
that Sopoanga may challenge in court the revising officer's
rejection of the 100-plus registration challenges.

The New Team - Maybe
--------------


5. (C) By Sunday, August 6, nearly all of the elected MPs had
made their ways back to the capital from their home islands,
trips that take 1-3 days. At mid-morning of the next day, 12
of the new and returning Opposition MPs gathered in an
upstairs conference room of Funafuti's only hotel to begin
the process of forming a new governing coalition. All men --
the two women candidates having failed in their bids -- and
well known to one another, they remained closeted for the
remainder of Monday. On the morning of Wednesday, August 9,
a number of unofficial sources reported that 46-year-old
Funafuti businessman and returning Opposition MP Kausea
Natano has emerged as the consensus choice for PM.
First-time MP and former Police Commissioner Willy Telavi is
said to be the choice for speaker of the House. Minister of
finance is likely to be returning Opposition MP Apisai
Ielemia; minister of natural resources returning Opposition
MP Tavua Teii; minister of works and communications newcomer
MP Namoliki Sualiki Neemia; minister of home affairs
returning leader of the Opposition Elisala Pita; and minister
of health and education Dr. Falesa Pitoi, a dentist.
Returning Opposition MP Kamuta Latasi and newcomer Lotoala
Metia, of Funafuti and Nukufetau island respectively, will
function as backbenchers. There is talk about the new
government being sworn in on August 10 or 11. The final
line-up could easily change again, and the swearing-in could
be postponed. Ruling coalitions have proven difficult to
hold together in the past.


6. (C) A surprising tidbit that emerged from these early
discussions, reported to us by the well-informed protocol
officer of the Foreign Ministry, was word that four of those
involved in the talks to form a new government favor
switching Tuvalu's "allegiance" from Taiwan to China. Tuvalu
has recognized Taiwan since shortly after independence in
1978, something that Taipei rewards with an annual budgetary
grant of 3.5 million U.S. dollars, along with other
assistance.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) Tuvalu proves the adage that all politics is local.
Failure to deliver benefits such as docks, improved roads,
better schools, scholarships for promising local students,
and a hundred other small favors to ones home island has
apparently cost an overly confident government victory at the
polls. Contacts also pointed to a widely held belief that
the now-defeated group under PM Toafa had lived just a little
too well off in far Funafuti. A recent quiet increase in
travel benefits for government ministers did not go
unnoticed. Tuvalu's cash economy remains moribund, and, in
the eyes of those outside Funafuti, too little of the "manna"
dropping from foreign aid donors, the country's modest but
successful trust fund, fishing licenses, etc. makes its way
to the outer islands. Government ministers also waited far
too late to hit the hustings, according to contacts, and they
arrived on their islands to find their opponents had been
there already, spreading their own versions of what the
government had been up to. With only a single government
radio station, now corporatized and doing its best to be
objective, isolated local voters had little to go on in
making their decisions. What is clear is that the governing
MPs failed to win over and convince voters to return them for
another four years. Past elections in Tuvalu, which only
became self-governing in 1978, have tended to see big
turnovers, too. The newcomers will start their
administration without a known political platform. It is
worth noting that they have not included in their number some
of the more promising of this term's MPs, such as former
ambassador to Fiji and multi-lateral diplomat Taukelina

SUVA 00000309 003 OF 003


Finikaso, nor any representative from the island of Nui. The
latter may yet have to be addressed, since a balance among
the islands is critical. Other than former Police
Commissioner Willy Telavi, the members of the new government
are not well known to the embassy or others outside Tuvalu we
have spoken with. End Comment.

Mann


MANN