TONGA'S PROPOSED IRAQ DEPLOYMENT: STATE OF PLAY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SUVA 000271

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/05/2016
TAGS: MARR PREL TN IR
SUBJECT: TONGA'S PROPOSED IRAQ DEPLOYMENT: STATE OF PLAY

REF: SUVA 262

Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.5 (B,D)

Summary
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1. (C) Planning is well under way for a second deployment of
Tonga Defense Service (TDS) troops to Iraq. A required step
is Tonga Defense Board approval. Reportedly, the Board will
decide on July 14. TDS Commander Uta'atu and Foreign/Defense
Minister Tu'a are enthusiastic. They presume the King or
Crown Prince (as Regent) will be, too. In the past, and
probably still, that would decide the matter. However, new
Prime Minister Sevele, a commoner, has been instituting
reforms, with the Crown Prince's encouragement, aiming to
mollify pro-democracy advocates. Sevele has signaled
discomfort about the proposed deployment, sensing the Tongan
public would oppose it. Uta'atu and, reportedly, Tu'a remain
confident that traditional power relationships will hold and
the Board will approve. The outcome will be an indicator of
how much actual power has flowed from the palace to the PM in
recent months. End Summary.

Deployment decisions and democracy in Tonga
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2. (C) Tonga's Defense Board is to consider shortly a second
deployment of a company of TDS troops to Iraq. The Defense
Board consists of the King (or his Regent) and the Cabinet,
with the Commander TDS as secretary. Traditionally, the
Defense Minister formally proposes, Cabinet observes, and the
King decides. The King supported the previous deployment in

2004. However, governance in Tonga has since become more
complicated. A pro-democracy movement has gained traction.
The King is old, ailing, and spending most of his time in New
Zealand. The Crown Prince, often now Prince Regent, recently
appointed the first commoner Prime Minister in over a
century, Fred Sevele. Sevele has instituted several reforms
and foresees a more democratic system. The Crown Prince
accepts the usefulness of reform, in principle, while
intending for the monarch to retain a number of royal
prerogatives, including oversight of the TDS (see reftel).

TDS and Defense Minister on board; Crown Prince interested
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3. (C) During a June 27-29 visit to Tonga, the Ambassador
and DATT discussed the proposed Iraq deployment with key
figures. TDS Commander Uta'atu, who traveled to Washington,
Tampa, and Baghdad in April with Foreign/Defense Minister
Tu'a and the DATT to gauge prospects for the deployment,
remains fully supportive. He warned, though, that "the
politicians" may need further persuasion. Minister Tu'a was
away from Tonga during the visit, but Uta'atu said he also
remains on board. When we raised the subject with the Crown
Prince, he understood the arguments for deployment and seemed
interested; however, he noted that the issue has not yet
reached the Defense Board so he has not been fully briefed.

PM has serious political doubts
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4. (C) When we raised the deployment issue with Prime
Minister Sevele, he was clearly more up to speed than when we
had first broached it with him in early April. At that time
he appeared somewhat unenthusiastic but admitted he had not
been briefed. This time, he informed us that he is troubled
by the thought of deploying Tongans to Iraq at a time when
Japan and others are withdrawing their troops. He is worried
about intense political fall-out if a Tongan were to become a
casualty. He mentioned that "two or three" of his Cabinet
colleagues also have expressed concerns. He admitted
discomfort at so frankly conveying such views, but he said he
didn't want the USG to be surprised if Tonga, in the end,
declines to participate again.

Comments: positive decision remains likely, but...
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5. (C) The U.S. and the TDS have invested considerable
effort into ramping up the second TDS deployment. During our
meetings last week, we lobbied hard, using the array of
available arguments. At this early stage of Tonga's
democratic evolution, the Monarch retains the power to order
such a deployment. Colonel Uta'atu believes "the PM's
opinion does not have much bearing on the direction of the
military." Assuming the Defense Board operates in the
traditional fashion, Foreign/Defense Minister Tu'a will
propose, nobody will challenge, and the King or the Crown
Prince as Regent will authorize.

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6. (C) PM Sevele's powers are beginning to strengthen, in
good part because of his close relationship with the Crown
Prince who wants to co-opt pro-democracy sentiments via
modest reforms. There was reportedly great public
nervousness during the six-month entirety of the first TDS
Iraq deployment, which resulted in no casualties.
Pro-democracy advocates would almost certainly attempt to
capitalize on public nervousness about a second deployment to
accent dissatisfaction with the monarchy. The PM's political
antennae are much more sensitive than those in the royal
family, but even the royal family is developing a degree of
sensitivity to "people power" pressure. They caved to a
public-service strike last summer. Given Sevele's clear
discomfort with the deployment concept, it is likely that he
will attempt, at least behind the scenes, to influence the
Defense Board decision negatively.


7. (C) Colonel Uta'atu, aware of some politicians' concerns,
asked us to attempt to convince PM Sevele of the new
deployment's merits. On hearing the PM's worried response,
Uta'atu met on July 3 with the PM and with Foreign/Defense
Minister Tu'a (who had by then returned to Tonga). Uta'atu
confirmed to Sevele details about the deployment, including
the training and equipment the USG is preparing to deliver to
the TDS and the care taken in selecting the deployment's
location within Iraq, all to help ensure a successful
outcome. We are told Uta'atu also stressed the importance of
the U.S.-Tonga mil-mil relationship and argued the need
continually to strengthen the bond. The PM reportedly
replied that he appreciated Uta'atu's comments, including the
"criticism."


8. (C) Colonel Uta'atu expects the Defense Board to meet July
14, and he remains confident that the Board will OK the
deployment. That is the most likely scenario, but not the
only possible one these days. The Board's decision will
provide a practical signal of just how much, or how little,
power the PM has attained in Tonga's evolving monarchical
system.
DINGER