TONGA'S POLITICAL EVOLUTION: HOW FAR AND HOW FAST?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 SUVA 000262

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

EMBASSY MANILA PASS TO ADB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/03/2016
TAGS: PREL PHUM MARR PGOV PINR EFIN CVIS TN CH
SUBJECT: TONGA'S POLITICAL EVOLUTION: HOW FAR AND HOW FAST?

REF: A. SUVA 139 (AND PREVIOUS)

B. SUVA 156

Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D).

Summary
--------------

1. (C) The public drive in Tonga for political change seems
to have decelerated in recent months, though debate is no
longer about whether change should occur, but about the pace
and degree. New Prime Minister Sevele's series of modest
reforms may have reduced pressure. Also, people may be
awaiting results from the ongoing National Committee for
Political Reform (NCPR) process. Pro-democracy activists,
nervous about the intentions of the Crown Prince and PM
Sevele, intend to keep pushing. A worrisome element is
Government's attempt to curb anti-monarchy speech via
sedition charges. Meanwhile, ailing King Tupou IV returned
to Tonga from New Zealand for his 88th birthday. Tonga's
fiscal gurus have so far successfully steered through
pressures created by last summer's public-service salary
settlement. A redundancy package accepted by almost a
quarter of Tonga's civil service should help. China's roles
in Tonga remain complex. In a comment, we note that the
NCPR's report, due in September, will help frame future
debate on political reform. Thus, we continue to advocate
USG funding assistance for the NCPR's media outreach. End
Summary.


2. (C) The Ambassador visited Tonga June 27-29, accompanying
Charles Salmon, Foreign Policy Advisor at the Asia-Pacific
Center for Security Studies (see septel),who was on a
speaking tour through the Pacific region. They met with
Crown Prince (Prince Regent) Tupouto'a, PM Sevele, Finance
Minister 'Utoikamanu, Attorney General Taumoepeau, the
Commander of the Tonga Defense Service (TDS) Colonel Uta'atu,
pro-democracy People's Representatives Akilisi Pohiva and
Clive Edwards, and others.

From boil to simmer?
--------------

3. (C) For most people in Tonga, the political temperature
seems to have reduced during the past few months. Prince
Regent Tupouto'a's appointment in March of Fred Sevele, a
former pro-democracy activist, as the first commoner Prime
Minister since a British citizen had that role in the late
1800s, is seen as encouraging. Sevele's freedom to select
several new members of Cabinet on his own initiative, with
subsequent royal assent, is also seen by many as a plus. The
departure of arch-conservative Deputy PM Cecil Cocker to be
Consul General in San Francisco and his replacement as Deputy
by the well-respected Minister of Health, Dr. Viliami Tangi,
is particularly propitious for reform prospects. The new
Attorney General 'Alisi Taumoepeau (former Solicitor General
and the wife of an A-G whom the Crown Prince fired a year
ago) has a pro-democracy orientation. New ministerial
positions for civil aviation and tourism appear to focus
attention on Tonga's only glimmering economic prospect: the
tourist industry.


4. (C) Sevele's creation of a "chief of staff" position in
the PM's office and his filling it with Lopeti Senituli, the
well-respected former head of Tonga's leading human-rights
organization, have drawn kudos. Pushing an initiative to
allow Tongans dual citizenship is also highly popular, and
Sevele responded to intense lobbying by Oxfam and the
pro-democracy movement against WTO accession by airing the
issue publicly in Parliament before engineering ratification
on June 30. There is a sense that change is already
happening at a very active pace by Tongan standards.

NCPR consultations may reduce pressure for change
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5. (C) All members of the NCPR were overseas consulting with
Tongan communities in New Zealand, Australia, and the U.S.
during our visit. The Committee is to submit its report by
September 1, though PM Sevele informed us he would be willing
to allow more time if needed. We heard second-hand that
turnouts at consultation sessions in Tonga were often low,
and those villagers who spoke up tended to accent
bread-and-butter infrastructure needs more than
political-reform aspirations. That lack of clamor may have
contributed to a sense among many that Princess Regent

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Pilolevu captured the public mood in her June 1 address
(written by PM Sevele and Finance Minister 'Utoikamanu) at
the opening of Parliament. She said political change is
inevitable, but it must take place at an appropriately
measured, Tongan pace.

Activists remain impatient
--------------

6. (C) Pro-democracy activists like Akilisi Pohiva, Clive
Edwards, and new head of the Friendly Isles Human Rights and
Democracy Movement Akaneti Lauti, remain committed to a much
faster pace of reform. They organized a street demonstration
during the opening of Parliament on June 1 and presented a
petition to the Government. The petition raised the
possibility of a referendum on the need for change, insisted
on major electoral reforms prior to Tonga's next elections in
2008, and sought a formal response within 30 days. Since the
Government had never responded at all to the movement's
petitions in the past, the activists threatened and were
preparing for "civil disobedience" which, Pohiva and Lauti
told us, they hoped could be kept peaceful. Lauti indicated
frustration levels were high, a car had been torched the
night of June 28 (with no media coverage),and violence could
not be ruled out. Edwards reported noticing an increased
police presence in the vicinity of Parliament. We urged that
any protests be completely peaceful.


7. (C) When Senituli from the PM's office contacted Pohiva
on June 28 to say Cabinet was preparing a formal response,
activists remained dubious and suggested to us that the
message would be, at most, an offer to negotiate. We noted
that a response, in itself, would be breaking new ground, and
suggested that a pro-democracy movement dialogue with
government could be a useful step. In the end, just before
the 30-day deadline, the Government did respond, urging
maintenance of the rule of law, arguing that activists should
await the NCPR's findings, and agreeing to a dialogue as
necessary. Lauti has since informed us that the
pro-democracy movement has decided the response is
inadequate, and some relatively mild forms of peaceful
protest are in the cards.

Sedition and free speech
--------------

8. (C) The Tonga Police have filed 14 sedition charges
against Pohiva, based on allegedly inflamatory anti-royal
posters the pro-democracy movement has repeatedly placed in
the Pangai Si, a downtown park and rallying point. Pohiva
told us he is not intimidated; he has survived such attempts
before. He said the posters merely quoted the Bible, citing
Old Testament scriptural passages about the need to remove
misbehaving kings. Clive Edwards said his police contacts
claim the order to prosecute came from "higher than the
Minister of Police," i.e., from the PM. We raised with
Sevele the view that free political speech is very important
for good governance.

The PM's vision
--------------

9. (C) When we visited with the Crown Prince and then-Acting
PM Sevele in early March (ref A),both indicated an intention
to move "ASAP" with significant political reform. Now, both
seem to have scaled back the intended pace and end result.
Sevele said he will be satisfied "if the election after next"
in 2011 sees a majority of Parliament elected by the people.
(Currently Parliament consists of 9 "people's
representatives" elected by the public, 9 reps elected by the
33 nobles, and 12 royally appointed members of Cabinet.)
Sevele indicated one possibility would be for the nobles'
reps to be elected by the general public. Sevele, noting
that the Crown Prince has made clear he wants no
Constitutional amendments, said his own view is the King
should retain his veto power (which we note is currently
absolute) since that tool proved important a few years ago to
curb a poorly-thought-out land bill passed by Parliament.

The Crown Prince and royal prerogatives
--------------

10. (C) The Crown Prince told us he would be comfortable
with an immediate move to increase the number of people's
reps in Parliament. He made clear, though, that certain
"royal prerogatives" must be retained so that "riffraff"
don't affect the functioning of key aspects of governance

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such as the military, judiciary, public service, and the post
office. The Crown Prince has stayed firm in his view that a
British judge must head Tonga's judicial system when the
current Scotsman retires in September. Attorney General
Taumoepeau regrets that, since a Brit will be expensive and
New Zealand has indicated it would happily fund a Kiwi
replacement, the other expat judge now in Tonga.

Law suit re "prince regent," a gamble that failed
-------------- ---

11. (C) When Princess Pilolevu, as Regent, officiated over
the opening of Parliament on June 1, pro-democracy advocates
filed a law suit alleging that the Constitution permits only
the King or a group of 3 nobles to officiate. The suit shut
down Parliament for three weeks until the Chief Justice ruled
that, under the Constitution, a prince regent carries all the
powers of the King. Pro-democracy's Clive Edwards said the
plaintiffs were worried that the Crown Prince (when he
becomes King) would one day appoint one of his business
cronies to the role, since the Constitution does not specify
that the regent must be a royal. The hope had been for a
judgment limiting prince-regent powers. Now that the gamble
failed, and the pro-democracy movement received bad publicity
in Tonga for obstructing Parliament's important budget
session, the thought of an appeal is looking dicey.

The King returns
--------------

12. (C) During our visit, preparations were under way for
King Tupou IV to return from New Zealand. He has spent
nearly all of the past six months in Auckland, suffering from
strokes, circulation problems in his legs, and general aging.
However, he reportedly made clear that he wanted to
celebrate his 88th birthday at home on July 4. The Crown
Prince said his father's heart "is stronger than mine," and
he is in reasonably good health. The King did return to
Tonga on July 1, though his birthday activities were
curtailed. Reportedly the visit home will be short because
the royal doctors in New Zealand worry, with reason, about
Tongan health care. Also, reportedly, royal minders want to
avoid the prospect of an incapacitated King residing in
Tonga. Governance would be simpler if the King's health
declines abroad, with a prince regent in charge at home.

Fiscal pressures, civil-service redundancies
--------------

13. (C) As reported ref A, the royal family's capitulation
to a public-service strike last July-September resulted in a
settlement that has severely strained Tonga's finances. The
full brunt would hit with the new fiscal year, July 1. It
appears that Tonga's Finance Minister and Reserve Bank have
done wonders in macroeconomic policy, keeping inflation
manageable. However, costs had to be cut. Part of the
solution was to offer an attractive redundancy package,
seeking 1000 acceptances, more than a quarter of the civil
service. Around 900 people expressed interest, and
reportedly 820 signed acceptance letters last week. The
package required an immediate payout of T$22 million (USD 11
million),which Tonga is covering by finishing off some
long-standing ADB loans and by planning to sell its shares in
the WestPac Bank. Over time, the smaller civil service is
expected to generate significant savings. We heard that
about 10% of the MFA and Finance Ministry staffs took the
package; other ministries like education and health must be
bearing much higher percentages. Reportedly so many
garbage-handlers departed that trash is piling up. Observers
worry whether bureaucracies can be nimble enough to shift
portfolios and increase burdens to keep government
functioning. Finance Minister 'Utoikamanu predicted to us
that Tonga can make ends meet until around December using
foreseeable resources.

Fiscal bail-out request to China; need for coordination
-------------- --------------

14. (C) China's ambassador to Tonga confirmed to us that in
April PM Sevele approached Premier Wen during the PRC's
Pacific-regional meeting in Fiji (Ref B) seeking funding to
cushion the fiscal crisis. The ambassador said his
government has yet to respond. We stressed the usefulness
for China, as a donor, to coordinate its efforts with others
in the donor community. We noted that the Asian Development
Bank (ADB) has accepted the view of other donors like
Australia, New Zealand, and ourselves that Tonga's Government

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created its current fiscal crisis, and a bail-out would be
premature pending clear signals of permanent progress on
political and economic reforms. For now, budgetary pressures
appear to be helping to stimulate reform efforts.

The usual Chinese assistance
--------------

15. (C) China is providing an array of assistance projects
to Tonga. It is about to construct, with Chinese labor, a
pre-fab convention hall for the Pacific Island Forum (PIF)
meetings to be held in Nuku'alofa in late October. China
funded the new "chief of staff" position in the PM's office
when Australia and New Zealand declined to do so. China is
providing the Tonga Defense Service a modest quantity of
uniform items. China is providing 20 VIP vehicles for use by
heads of state who attend the PIF.

Crown Prince's businesses still a problem
--------------

16. (C) China's ambassador flatly denied a report that PM
Sevele sought from Premier Wen a concessional loan of
approximately USD 30 million to cover the cost of a buy-back
of the Crown Prince's interest in Shoreline, Tonga's electric
utility. Finance Minister 'Utoikamanu admitted to us that
the Crown Prince's attitude toward his "personal" businesses
remains a problem. He wants to receive a much sweeter price
for his Shoreline asset than independent evaluators believe
is appropriate. PM Sevele has committed to take the
Shoreline controversy off the Crown Prince's hands,
preferably via sale to a private company; however, not
surprisingly, private companies insist on an arms-length
deal.

Comment and action request
--------------

17. (C) PM Sevele, with clearance from the Crown Prince, has
initiated a set of reforms that in most countries would be
seen as modest but in conservative Tonga are perceived by
many as quite significant. There is a sense in Nuku'alofa
that most Tongans believe the current pace is sufficient. On
our previous visits, there was a sense that most Tongans, at
least the 70% who live on the main island of Tongatapu, were
craving more profound reform immediately. In part that
conclusion was drawn from the size and vehemence of a
political demonstration last September just after the
public-service strike. Now, some observers are offering a
revisionist recollection: that the demonstration may not
actually have been all that big, and that most people are
content with the current political pace. It is unclear to us
whether the previous sense of urgency was wrong, or sentiment
has changed, or the current perception is wrong.


18. (C) The pro-democracy activists have grave doubts about
the Crown Prince's willingness to accept transition to a
truly democratic system. From our conversation, Tupouto'a,
indeed, expects to retain a number of significant powers
under any future system. The activists worry that Sevele, a
pro-democracy advocate before he joined Cabinet, has sold
out. They continue to insist that most of the public remains
with their movement. Activist Akilisi Pohiva has repeatedly
topped the charts in Tongan parliamentary elections, and his
vote percentage in 2005 was his highest ever. The
pro-democracy movement achieved a reasonable turnout for
their June 1 demonstration, around 1000 people. But they
expected the numbers to be much bigger, and they must be
worried that government reforms are chipping at their base.


19. (C) The NCPR's report in September will provide an
important framing for future debate. NCPR member Sitiveni
Halapua told us by phone three weeks ago that he is working
on the draft report. He indicated having heard a range of
views which, overall, still point toward the need for more
political reform. As we see it, the need for some political
"change" is now accepted by all, even the royalty. The open
questions are pace and degree. Halapua said the coming
effort to educate the public on the Committee's findings will
be a crucial phase and still needs funding. We continue to
believe it important for the USG to provide assistance for
that media outreach.
DINGER