QARASE CONFIRMED AS FIJI'S PM; MILITARY COMMANDER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SUVA 000214

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINS PINR PREL MARR ASEC FJ
SUBJECT: QARASE CONFIRMED AS FIJI'S PM; MILITARY COMMANDER
UNHAPPY

REF: SUVA 209 (AND PREVIOUS)

Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D).

Summary
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1. (C) By scraping through to a win in a disputed seat,
Prime Minister Qarase's SDL party secured a tiny
parliamentary majority in Fiji's national election. Two
SDL-oriented independents add cushion. The losing FLP may
still sue, but that is an issue only for the longer term.
Qarase has announced an offer of major cabinet ministries to
the FLP, a surprise which FLP members are now digesting.
Republic of Fiji Military Forces (RFMF) Commander Bainimarama
returned to attacking Qarase in the media today and alleged
New Zealand will provide a new RFMF commander soon. The GNZ
has denied it. Reportedly, though, Qarase's office is
seeking a new ethnic-Fijian commander. After waffling,
Bainimarama now intends to follow through on a visit to
Hawaii next week, which would appear to indicate he has no
immediate plans to take drastic action. End Summary.

SDL wins; Qarase sworn in as PM
--------------

2. (U) Laisenia Qarase and his SDL party have won Fiji's
general election. The second recount in a suburban Suva seat
saw SDL win the seat by 9 votes out of 15,701. That, plus
written commitments from both "independent" seat winners,
provides Qarase 38 seats in Parliament, compared to the
FLP-UPP coalition's 33 seats. On the afternoon of May 19,
President Iloilo swore in Qarase for another term as Prime
Minister.

Cabinet proposal, with "multi-party" offer
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3. (SBU) Qarase wasted no time in announcing his cabinet
plans, which, under the Constitution, must include a
proportional offer of positions to the FLP. Qarase said that
given the FLP won 44% of the seats in Parliament, he has
given his SDL parliamentarians 10 cabinet seats and has
offered the FLP 7: Agriculture, Commerce and Industry, Energy
and Minerals, Environment, Health, Labor, and Local
Government. Qarase intends also to name the two independents
and a few Senators to cabinet positions, slots which he
believes do not have to figure into the SDL/FLP percentages.
He envisions a full cabinet of 20 or 21. He asked the FLP to
respond by next Monday with a list of 12 names, from which
the PM can choose.


4. (C) Comment: Qarase's math is slightly off (the FLP won
43.7% of the seats and the offer is 41.2% of the SDL/FLP
portion of cabinet),but the offered positions are important
posts, particularly for a domestically-oriented labor party.
The offer appears intended to test the FLP's ability to
maintain a chip on its shoulder, and could be read as an
olive leaf, though perhaps one which Qarase expects to be
declined. FLP leaders have never been known for their
conciliatory natures. Still, in a press conference at end of
day, FLP leader Chaudhry admitted the offer is "substantial"
and one which his caucus will consider. We hear the FLP may
decide to accept the cabinet positions, but that Chaudhry may
opt to stay away and become Opposition Leader again. End
comment.)

FLP still might sue
--------------

4. (U) In his press event, Chaudhry complained that the
election was "not free and fair," for the various reasons we
have reported on previously (refs),and he confirmed the FLP
is considering legal action to challenge results. A prime
target of any suit would be the constituency where the FLP
and minor parties allege 15 ballot boxes suddenly appeared
after counting procedures had begun. The FLP lost that seat
on preferences. If the result were eventually to be turned
around, the SDL would be left with only a minority 35 seats
on its own, which would open the possibility of a "no
confidence" vote and would put the two independents in
position to dictate who governs. Still, for now and at least
the immediate future, the Qarase government has the reins of
power in Fiji.

Military Commander attacks Qarase yet again
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5. (C) Republic of Fiji Military Forces (RFMF) Commander
Bainimarama told the media today, via radio interviews and a
press conference, that Qarase and some other winning SDL
candidates have "attacked the military" in recent days, even
though "Fiji faces more important issues than fighting the

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military." He argued a focus on the military "does not augur
well" for Fiji, which needs to concentrate on "good
government." He added that he has heard "through the
grapevine that New Zealand is to send a commander of the RFMF
to replace me in the next couple of months." He said
categorically: "That is not going to happen;" if there is to
be a change it would "have to be a local." (Note: The GNZ
has put out a press statement denying there has been any such
Fiji request.)

A new RFMF leadership option?
--------------

6. (C) Prior to the recount result which assured the SDL its
slim majority, Bainimarama publicly urged the two independent
victors in the election to side with the FLP. Now that
Qarase is re-installed as PM, Bainimarama must consider his
options. Per septel from Suva DAO, retired RFMF LtCol.
Serevakula has urged Bainimarama to try to rebuild bridges to
the Qarase government. That would take a great deal of work
and self-discipline on Bainimarama's behalf. It would also
require receptivity from Qarase, who has no confidence in the
Commander. Qarase responded to Bainimarama's public attack
today by noting that the new cabinet must "sort out" the
situation shortly. Per septel, we have heard that Qarase's
office has quietly asked Serevakula to return from his
lucrative UN assignment in Afghanistan to take the Commander
job. That choice might be palatable to many in the RFMF
officer corps, though it would not please Bainimarama. It is
not yet clear how Serevakula will respond.

Bainimarama Visit to Hawaii an opportunity
--------------

7. (C) A few days ago, Bainimarama shelved plans to visit
the Solomon Islands this week. This morning, his staff
informed the Embassy that he was also canceling a trip to
Hawaii for next week to observe Exercise Tafakula; however,
Bainimarama changed his mind a few hours later and now does
plan to do the Hawaii trip. That would suggest he does not
intend any immediate drastic action at home.
DINGER