Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06SUVA185
2006-05-04 01:10:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Suva
Cable title:  

FIJI ELECTION WEEK: CALM, THEN UNCERTAINTY?

Tags:  PGOV PREL MARR PHUM MCAP FJ 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO3507
RR RUEHPB
DE RUEHSV #0185/01 1240110
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 040110Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY SUVA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3058
INFO RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 1201
RUEHPB/AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 0820
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON 0995
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHHJJAA/JICPAC HONOLULU HI
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SUVA 000185 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/03/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR PHUM MCAP FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI ELECTION WEEK: CALM, THEN UNCERTAINTY?

REF: A. SUVA 173


B. SUVA 167 (AND PREVIOUS)

Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D)

Summary
-------
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SUVA 000185

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/03/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR PHUM MCAP FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI ELECTION WEEK: CALM, THEN UNCERTAINTY?

REF: A. SUVA 173


B. SUVA 167 (AND PREVIOUS)

Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D)

Summary
--------------

1. (C) Voting in Fiji's general election begins Saturday and
will run for a week. Most people expect Prime Minister
Qarase's SDL and Opposition Leader Chaudhry's FLP to take the
bulk of the seats, though minor parties and independents
could hold the balance in a close election. With the
ethnic-Fijian vote key and with some indications of shaky SDL
support, Qarase in recent days has moved to solidify his
base, arguing that only a Fijian-led party can assure a
stable future. Chaudhry, who senses his ethnic-Indian base
is secure, has questioned how much ethnic Fijians actually
gained under the present government. The Fiji Police expect
a "calm" election week. The Elections Office has told the
Fiji military (RFMF) to stay away from the polls, except to
vote. It appears Commander Bainimarama will not have his
forces visibly present, unless there is an unexpected
emergency. In public debates this week, PM Qarase noted his
intention to find a "permanent" solution regarding the RFMF's
political activism, if the SDL wins the election. An aspect
of that solution could relate to a defense "white paper"
which has yet to be approved but which reportedly argues for
reduced RFMF infantry strength. End Summary.

The stage is set
--------------

2. (SBU) Fiji's general election takes place May 6-13. Well
over 300 candidates are vying for the 71 seats in
Parliament's lower house. Per reftels, most everyone expects
PM Qarase's ruling SDL and Opposition Leader Chaudhry's FLP
to garner the most seats. Independents and candidates from
four other nation-wide parties and several regional parties
will play meaningful roles in some seats, per ref B. Such
independents and minor parties could also determine who forms
the next government, if neither the SDL nor the FLP gains a
majority on its own. In the end, the party or coalition

which has 36 or more seats will form the government. The
governing party or coalition will then propose the new Prime
Minister from within its ranks.

Cabinet-sharing question
--------------

3. (U) Under Fiji's 1997 Constitution, the new PM must offer
ministerial portfolios to all other parties that win 10% (8
or more) parliamentary seats. In 2001 Qarase attempted to
evade that requirement, believing that to bring arch-rival
Chaudhry and company into Cabinet would be impossibly
disruptive; but Fiji's Supreme Court insisted. In the end,
Chaudhry's FLP chose to be in opposition rather than take the
minor portfolios Qarase ultimately offered. In a radio
talk-back appearance and a formal TV debate on May 2, Qarase
and Chaudhry both indicated that this time around they could
work together, since the Constitution does indeed require
that approach. Qarase added, though, that he wants a
constitutional amendment to remove the "unworkable" Cabinet
provision.

Qarase's "race card"
--------------

4. (SBU) With ethnic Fijians constituting a solid 55% or
more majority in the population, they hold the electoral wild
cards. Thus, Qarase, who per ref B senses that "preference"
allocations have made the SDL vulnerable in key "open" seats,
has played hard on the theme that, in Fiji's still-young
democracy, only an ethnic-Fijian-led party (the SDL) can
ensure future stability. He has reminded repeatedly that
both times in the past when the FLP won elections (1987 and
2000),coups followed. Another SDL candidate, Tupeni Baba,
who in 1999 was Chaudhry's deputy in the FLP, has accented
concerns about instability, claiming the military cannot
protect Fiji from a coup. Chaudhry has decried such playing
of the "race card." He also is arguing that the Qarase
government has failed ordinary Fijians, paying out huge sums
to ethnic-Fijian elites and cronies for development schemes
that have not improved the lives of the common villager.
When asked in the TV debate, Chaudhry confirmed that, if the
FLP wins, he would accept its nomination for PM.

Indicators of SDL concern
--------------

5. (C) We have observed that, in Suva at least, Qarase
rallies seem heavy with older Fijians, and Chaudhry rallies
have attracted a surprising number of younger Fijians. How
those observations translate into "open" seat votes remains

SUVA 00000185 002 OF 002


to be seen. Qarase told us after the TV debate that he
thinks the SDL will still win enough seats on the first
ballot count (see ref B for explanation),but the margin may
be thin. Interestingly, we hear that Qarase recently
instructed his office staff to begin shredding "confidential"
Cabinet documents. We are told the guidance a few weeks ago
had been to maintain the documents.

Observers at the ready; Police expect "calm"
--------------

6. (U) Electoral observers have arrived in force from
abroad, including 40 from the EU, 7 from Australia and 7 from
New Zealand as part of a Pacific Islands Forum group, and 6
from the Commonwealth. With our own resources, we intend to
visit polling booths across Fiji's two big islands and on at
least one smaller one. The Fiji Police have dedicated most
of their forces to maintain order at some 1000 polling
stations over the seven days of voting. Police Commissioner
Hughes has assured the public that the atmosphere will be
calm.

Military on alert, but asked to stay away
--------------

7. (C) Republic of Fiji Military Forces (RFMF) Commander
Bainimarama and his spokesmen have indicated publicly in
recent days that all troops are ready if needed to maintain
order. They have also reiterated past public statements
that, if Chaudhry's FLP should win the election, the RFMF
will ensure no (nationalist-Fijian) coup occurs. As with the
Police, all leaves have been canceled. The RFMF has called
reservists into barracks for the election period and, in
recent days, has had troops training against election-trouble
scenarios. At least one RFMF soldier died and several others
collapsed, apparently due to heatstroke, while training on
May 2. The head of Fiji's Elections Office emphasized this
week that he makes the call regarding election security
measures; he has assigned that task to the Police; and the
RFMF is to have no role at the polls, except to vote, since
there is no "emergency." We hear that the RFMF plans to
scatter plain-clothes soldiers throughout Fiji to keep an eye
on things.

Afterward: Qarase intends permanent RFMF solution
-------------- --------------

8. (SBU) In the TV debate, PM Qarase restated his intention
to "permanently" resolve ongoing friction with the RFMF if
the SDL wins the election. Qarase hinted his solution would
involve dialogue, but he has also mentioned taking the issue
of the RFMF's political/security role, or lack of it, to the
Supreme Court for a judgment. Some in the media are
speculating that a new Qarase government might endorse budget
cuts and a "white paper" on defense reform that was produced
a couple of years ago without RFMF participation and that
advocated a reduction in RFMF infantry strength.

...and then the politicking really begins
--------------

9. (C) The stage is set for an exercise of democracy, Fiji
style. People seem to expect a peaceful week of voting,
followed by intense attention to the counting, which could
take several days, depending on how many sets of preferences
must be calculated to reach a "50 plus 1" winner for each
seat. Then Fiji's politics will really get interesting as a
government forms, opposition groups coalesce, and the
military ponders its options.
DINGER