Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06SUVA167
2006-04-25 23:31:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Suva
Cable title:
FIJI'S ELECTION: THE SYSTEM AND ITS CONSEQUENCES
VZCZCXRO4615 RR RUEHPB DE RUEHSV #0167/01 1152331 ZNY CCCCC ZZH R 252331Z APR 06 FM AMEMBASSY SUVA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3041 INFO RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 1192 RUEHPB/AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 0812 RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON 0987 RHHJJAA/JICPAC HONOLULU HI RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SUVA 000167
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/24/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI'S ELECTION: THE SYSTEM AND ITS CONSEQUENCES
REF: SUVA 133 (AND PREVIOUS)
Summary
-------
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SUVA 000167
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/24/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI'S ELECTION: THE SYSTEM AND ITS CONSEQUENCES
REF: SUVA 133 (AND PREVIOUS)
Summary
--------------
1. (C) The campaign for Fiji's May 6-13 general elections is
in full force. Paragraphs 2-7 describe aspects of Fiji's
Constitution and current electoral procedures that create
complications and make it difficult to predict the winner.
Most everyone expects the two largest parties, Prime Minister
Qarase's SDL and Opposition Leader Chaudhry's FLP to gain the
most seats. Increasing ethnic-Fijian dominance in
demographics suggests the SDL should win, but a solid Indian
base and a "preference" voting system gives the crafty FLP a
chance. Observers from around the world will help judge if
the election is "free and fair." Fiji military politicking
against the SDL could complicate that judgment. If Qarase's
SDL wins and continues past policies, the Fiji military has
threatened to remove him. If Chaudhry's FLP wins,
ethnic-Fijian nationalists may well plot a repeat of the 2000
coup. Even an orderly election may not guarantee a stable
path forward for Fiji. End summary.
A primer on Fiji elections
--------------
2. (U) As Fiji prepares for general elections May 6-13, we
provide this brief summary of the system under the 1997
Constitution. The basic concept is a Westminster model, with
the public electing 71 parliamentarians who select a prime
minister from among themselves. The PM selects other
parliamentarians to take on ministerial responsibilities for
the various government functions. (The PM, Opposition
Leader, and Great Council of Chiefs contribute selections for
an appointed Senate, as well.) As with any electoral system,
the devil is in the details.
Race still counts...
--------------
3. (U) The Constitution accepts that Fiji has race-based
politics and attempts to moderate that fact. Recognizing
history and perceived voter inclinations, most electoral
districts are "communal:" 23 are ethnic-Fijian, 19
ethnic-Indian, 3 "General," and one Rotuman (from a island
far in Fiji's north). The ratio was believed roughly to
reflect actual ethnic percentages as of 1997. When voters
register, they declare their ethnicity and provide proof as
necessary. In the election, each voter casts a communal vote
for a candidate from his/her racial group running for a
race-based seat. Three separately-drawn electoral maps are
each overlaid across the entirety of Fiji for the 23 Fijian,
19 Indian, and 3 Generals communal seats. The 1997
Constitution instituted a new concept as well: "open" seats.
Yet a fourth electoral map is overlaid on the nation,
supposedly so that each of 25 "open" seats has roughly equal
population. All those registered voters residing in an
"open" geographic district are eligible to vote for any
open-seat candidate running in that district, regardless of
ethnicity. Thus, every registered voter casts two ballots,
one communal and one open. Voting is compulsory. Those who
fail to do so can be fined, though implementing that rule has
proved difficult.
...With preferences aimed at bridge-building
--------------
4. (U) In an attempt to encourage politicians to build
bridges across the ethnic divide, the 1997 Constitution
instituted "preferential" voting, instead of "first past the
post." In order for a candidate to win a seat, that
candidate must obtain more than 50% of the vote. If no
candidate has achieved that on the first, raw count, the
candidate with the lowest raw total drops out and that
candidate's votes are redistributed to all other candidates,
based on preferences filed by the low-total candidate in
advance of the elections. If still no candidate has a
majority, again the lowest remaining candidate drops, with
that candidate's preferences redistributed, etc. In reality,
given a plethora of parties in Fiji, quite a number of
candidates only win after receiving others' preferences.
Pre-election negotiations among parties for preference
allocations are intense.
A complicated ballot; many invalid votes
--------------
5. (U) The Fiji ballot is complicated. Each party and
independent candidate running in a constituency chooses a
symbol. The voter can tick next to a party/independent's
symbol "above the line," in which case that ballot is cast
for that party/independent and its preferences. Or the voter
can number next to the individual candidates "below the
line," in which case consecutive numbers must be placed
SUVA 00000167 002 OF 003
beside the names of all candidates who are vying for that
constituency's seats. If a voter ticks both above and below
the line or numbers only some candidates below the line, the
ballot is invalid. In the two elections under the 1997
Constitution (1999 and 2001),many ballots were invalidated,
about 12% of those cast in 2001.
Registration complicated, too, with room for errors
-------------- --------------
6. (SBU) Voter registration is also complicated. To save
money, Fiji doesn't register voters continually. A new,
mandatory registration takes place in advance of each
election. (Proposals are in place to convert to continuous
registration. Time will tell whether the next Government
will fund the Elections Office sufficiently in the out years
to permit that, though New Zealand is prepared to front most
of the cost.) Inevitably there are complaints that the
intensive, house-to-house voter-registration effort in the
lead-up to an election misses some voters or registers some
in wrong constituencies or as the wrong ethnic group, either
by accident or by malign design. The FLP has alleged
thousands were wrongly registered this time around and that
the Elections Office has corrected only some of the problems.
Interestingly, two FLP politicians are currently under
police investigation for allegedly bribing
election-registration officials to shift batches of voters
across constituency lines.
Census postponed; boundary and voter calculations doubtful
-------------- --------------
7. (U) By happenstance, 2006 was to be the year both for
Fiji's 10-yearly census and for general elections. The
Government decided such a juxtaposition would be too
complicated and, thus, postponed the census until 2007. In
the past ten years, many Fiji citizens have migrated, either
from outer areas to Suva and Nadi/Lautoka or from Fiji to
places abroad. As a result, election-district boundaries
based on the 1996 census are certainly out of date; but with
no census data to support changes, Fiji's Electoral
Boundaries Commission decided to maintain existing
boundaries. Also, with the existing election districts
having very different and uncounted actual populations, it is
impossible to know with any certainty whether all or nearly
all actual voters have been registered.
What does it all mean for 2006? Open seats are key
-------------- --------------
8. (U) The two biggest parties from the 2001 election, PM
Qarase's (predominantly Fijian) SDL and Mahendra Chaudhry's
(predominantly Indian) FLP, are expected to win the most
seats again in 2006, with each winning most, if not all, of
their predominant ethnic group's communal seats, often on the
first count. The election will likely hang on the dozen or
so open seats where voter registration displays no clear
ethnic lead. There, voter turnout and preference allocations
among the various more minor parties will matter a lot.
Demographics indicate SDL; Indians' last chance?
-------------- ---
9. (SBU) Historically in Fiji, Indians have voted in higher
percentages than Fijians. Qarase is hoping to change that by
adding more polling stations and by appealing to his
ethnic-Fijian base to turn out and keep the PM-ship in
ethnic-Fijian hands. That message resonates loudly.
Interestingly, ethnic-Indian voter registration appears to be
down significantly this year, at least in part because of
migration abroad, which accelerated after the coup/riots of
2000. Another factor, reportedly, is a sense among some in
the Indian community that voting is not worth the effort. In
the two instances when parties with significant Indian
leadership won government (1987 and 1999),coups removed them
within a year. Some observers figure, given the
demographics, that 2006 is the ethnic Indians' last chance to
win a predominance of open seats and thus form a government.
Most have presumed, though, given the demographics, that the
SDL has the better chance.
Preferences shake SDL confidence? Or a motivating tool?
-------------- --------------
10. (U) Parties officially recorded their preference
allocations on April 18. Analysts have since been focusing
on how independent candidates and the two biggest of the
minor parties, the NFP and the NAP, apportioned open-seat
preferences between the SDL and FLP. It appears the minor
parties and independents generally distributed high
preferences among themselves. When it came to favoring SDL
or FLP for last preferences (which could well be crucial),
allocations sometimes went on a seat-by-seat basis. On April
20, PM Qarase accused the NFP of bad faith in placing FLP
SUVA 00000167 003 OF 003
ahead of the SDL in preferences for a number of key open
seats. Qarase claimed that, as a result, SDL cannot win the
election...unless ethnic Fijians turn out in force and cast a
majority of the raw vote for SDL. How much of that is
genuine concern and how much is political motivation of the
Fijian base is unclear.
So many factors, so little certainty
--------------
11. (C) Given Fiji's mix of communal and open seats, the
outdated electoral boundaries, a migration of rural residents
to urban areas which changes the ethnic and political mixes
across the board, the arrival of a new, multi-ethnic National
Alliance Party (NAP),some dissatisfaction with the ability
to date of PM Qarase's government to improve the lives of
ordinary citizens, concerns about the confrontational
leadership style of opposition FLP leader Chaudhry, worries
about whether an FLP-led government would stir another
ethnic-Fijian-led coup (which factor might move some Indian
votes to the NFP party),the Fiji military's repeated
interventions into the political process in recent months in
tacit opposition to Qarase's SDL, and Commodore Bainimarama's
public threats to remove the future government if Qarase wins
election and continues past ethnic-oriented policies (refs),
it would be foolhardy to predict the election's outcome.
A free and fair election? Observers will help judge
-------------- --------------
12. (U) A number of observers from abroad will be in Fiji
for the elections, with sizable delegations from the EU and
the Commonwealth. We intend to observe a number of key
polling sites using embassy personnel, with the intent to
make our own judgment of whether the process appears "free
and fair." The University of the South Pacific will send out
observers. Each major party will have poll watchers. The
media, already reporting heavily and generally independently,
will watch as well. The Fiji Police intend to have some 1500
personnel on the electoral beat, both observing polling
places and securing ballots through the counting. And the
Fiji military will be observing the whole process from its
own vantage points. Australian and New Zealand advisors to
the elections office predict the process will be within the
range of "free and fair." Fiji Police Commissioner Hughes
agrees. Military commander Bainimarama has told us he is
convinced Qarase and his SDL cohort have already corrupted
the process irredeemably. If the SDL loses, it may well be
arguable that the Fiji military's blatantly anti-SDL lobbying
and threats of a coup in recent months tarnished the process.
And then what? Unstable options?
--------------
13 (C) It appears there are two likely outcomes to the
election: either Qarase's SDL or Chaudhry's FLP forms the
next government, on its own if it has the numbers, or in
league with third parties and independent candidates to reach
the magic majority of 36 seats. If Qarase's SDL returns and
resumes its legislative path toward controversial
reconciliation and fishing-rights bills, the specter of
Commodore Bainimarama's threat to intervene arises. If after
winning the elections, Qarase seeks to have the "system"
remove Bainimarama, that could easily be another red-line to
trigger military intervention. If Chaudhry's FLP takes
power, many will expect ethnic-Fijian nationalists to begin
plotting their own coup yet again, despite Fiji military and
police intentions to oppose any such action. The only
clarity is that no electoral outcome appears an inherently
stable path forward for Fiji's democracy.
DINGER
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/24/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI'S ELECTION: THE SYSTEM AND ITS CONSEQUENCES
REF: SUVA 133 (AND PREVIOUS)
Summary
--------------
1. (C) The campaign for Fiji's May 6-13 general elections is
in full force. Paragraphs 2-7 describe aspects of Fiji's
Constitution and current electoral procedures that create
complications and make it difficult to predict the winner.
Most everyone expects the two largest parties, Prime Minister
Qarase's SDL and Opposition Leader Chaudhry's FLP to gain the
most seats. Increasing ethnic-Fijian dominance in
demographics suggests the SDL should win, but a solid Indian
base and a "preference" voting system gives the crafty FLP a
chance. Observers from around the world will help judge if
the election is "free and fair." Fiji military politicking
against the SDL could complicate that judgment. If Qarase's
SDL wins and continues past policies, the Fiji military has
threatened to remove him. If Chaudhry's FLP wins,
ethnic-Fijian nationalists may well plot a repeat of the 2000
coup. Even an orderly election may not guarantee a stable
path forward for Fiji. End summary.
A primer on Fiji elections
--------------
2. (U) As Fiji prepares for general elections May 6-13, we
provide this brief summary of the system under the 1997
Constitution. The basic concept is a Westminster model, with
the public electing 71 parliamentarians who select a prime
minister from among themselves. The PM selects other
parliamentarians to take on ministerial responsibilities for
the various government functions. (The PM, Opposition
Leader, and Great Council of Chiefs contribute selections for
an appointed Senate, as well.) As with any electoral system,
the devil is in the details.
Race still counts...
--------------
3. (U) The Constitution accepts that Fiji has race-based
politics and attempts to moderate that fact. Recognizing
history and perceived voter inclinations, most electoral
districts are "communal:" 23 are ethnic-Fijian, 19
ethnic-Indian, 3 "General," and one Rotuman (from a island
far in Fiji's north). The ratio was believed roughly to
reflect actual ethnic percentages as of 1997. When voters
register, they declare their ethnicity and provide proof as
necessary. In the election, each voter casts a communal vote
for a candidate from his/her racial group running for a
race-based seat. Three separately-drawn electoral maps are
each overlaid across the entirety of Fiji for the 23 Fijian,
19 Indian, and 3 Generals communal seats. The 1997
Constitution instituted a new concept as well: "open" seats.
Yet a fourth electoral map is overlaid on the nation,
supposedly so that each of 25 "open" seats has roughly equal
population. All those registered voters residing in an
"open" geographic district are eligible to vote for any
open-seat candidate running in that district, regardless of
ethnicity. Thus, every registered voter casts two ballots,
one communal and one open. Voting is compulsory. Those who
fail to do so can be fined, though implementing that rule has
proved difficult.
...With preferences aimed at bridge-building
--------------
4. (U) In an attempt to encourage politicians to build
bridges across the ethnic divide, the 1997 Constitution
instituted "preferential" voting, instead of "first past the
post." In order for a candidate to win a seat, that
candidate must obtain more than 50% of the vote. If no
candidate has achieved that on the first, raw count, the
candidate with the lowest raw total drops out and that
candidate's votes are redistributed to all other candidates,
based on preferences filed by the low-total candidate in
advance of the elections. If still no candidate has a
majority, again the lowest remaining candidate drops, with
that candidate's preferences redistributed, etc. In reality,
given a plethora of parties in Fiji, quite a number of
candidates only win after receiving others' preferences.
Pre-election negotiations among parties for preference
allocations are intense.
A complicated ballot; many invalid votes
--------------
5. (U) The Fiji ballot is complicated. Each party and
independent candidate running in a constituency chooses a
symbol. The voter can tick next to a party/independent's
symbol "above the line," in which case that ballot is cast
for that party/independent and its preferences. Or the voter
can number next to the individual candidates "below the
line," in which case consecutive numbers must be placed
SUVA 00000167 002 OF 003
beside the names of all candidates who are vying for that
constituency's seats. If a voter ticks both above and below
the line or numbers only some candidates below the line, the
ballot is invalid. In the two elections under the 1997
Constitution (1999 and 2001),many ballots were invalidated,
about 12% of those cast in 2001.
Registration complicated, too, with room for errors
-------------- --------------
6. (SBU) Voter registration is also complicated. To save
money, Fiji doesn't register voters continually. A new,
mandatory registration takes place in advance of each
election. (Proposals are in place to convert to continuous
registration. Time will tell whether the next Government
will fund the Elections Office sufficiently in the out years
to permit that, though New Zealand is prepared to front most
of the cost.) Inevitably there are complaints that the
intensive, house-to-house voter-registration effort in the
lead-up to an election misses some voters or registers some
in wrong constituencies or as the wrong ethnic group, either
by accident or by malign design. The FLP has alleged
thousands were wrongly registered this time around and that
the Elections Office has corrected only some of the problems.
Interestingly, two FLP politicians are currently under
police investigation for allegedly bribing
election-registration officials to shift batches of voters
across constituency lines.
Census postponed; boundary and voter calculations doubtful
-------------- --------------
7. (U) By happenstance, 2006 was to be the year both for
Fiji's 10-yearly census and for general elections. The
Government decided such a juxtaposition would be too
complicated and, thus, postponed the census until 2007. In
the past ten years, many Fiji citizens have migrated, either
from outer areas to Suva and Nadi/Lautoka or from Fiji to
places abroad. As a result, election-district boundaries
based on the 1996 census are certainly out of date; but with
no census data to support changes, Fiji's Electoral
Boundaries Commission decided to maintain existing
boundaries. Also, with the existing election districts
having very different and uncounted actual populations, it is
impossible to know with any certainty whether all or nearly
all actual voters have been registered.
What does it all mean for 2006? Open seats are key
-------------- --------------
8. (U) The two biggest parties from the 2001 election, PM
Qarase's (predominantly Fijian) SDL and Mahendra Chaudhry's
(predominantly Indian) FLP, are expected to win the most
seats again in 2006, with each winning most, if not all, of
their predominant ethnic group's communal seats, often on the
first count. The election will likely hang on the dozen or
so open seats where voter registration displays no clear
ethnic lead. There, voter turnout and preference allocations
among the various more minor parties will matter a lot.
Demographics indicate SDL; Indians' last chance?
-------------- ---
9. (SBU) Historically in Fiji, Indians have voted in higher
percentages than Fijians. Qarase is hoping to change that by
adding more polling stations and by appealing to his
ethnic-Fijian base to turn out and keep the PM-ship in
ethnic-Fijian hands. That message resonates loudly.
Interestingly, ethnic-Indian voter registration appears to be
down significantly this year, at least in part because of
migration abroad, which accelerated after the coup/riots of
2000. Another factor, reportedly, is a sense among some in
the Indian community that voting is not worth the effort. In
the two instances when parties with significant Indian
leadership won government (1987 and 1999),coups removed them
within a year. Some observers figure, given the
demographics, that 2006 is the ethnic Indians' last chance to
win a predominance of open seats and thus form a government.
Most have presumed, though, given the demographics, that the
SDL has the better chance.
Preferences shake SDL confidence? Or a motivating tool?
-------------- --------------
10. (U) Parties officially recorded their preference
allocations on April 18. Analysts have since been focusing
on how independent candidates and the two biggest of the
minor parties, the NFP and the NAP, apportioned open-seat
preferences between the SDL and FLP. It appears the minor
parties and independents generally distributed high
preferences among themselves. When it came to favoring SDL
or FLP for last preferences (which could well be crucial),
allocations sometimes went on a seat-by-seat basis. On April
20, PM Qarase accused the NFP of bad faith in placing FLP
SUVA 00000167 003 OF 003
ahead of the SDL in preferences for a number of key open
seats. Qarase claimed that, as a result, SDL cannot win the
election...unless ethnic Fijians turn out in force and cast a
majority of the raw vote for SDL. How much of that is
genuine concern and how much is political motivation of the
Fijian base is unclear.
So many factors, so little certainty
--------------
11. (C) Given Fiji's mix of communal and open seats, the
outdated electoral boundaries, a migration of rural residents
to urban areas which changes the ethnic and political mixes
across the board, the arrival of a new, multi-ethnic National
Alliance Party (NAP),some dissatisfaction with the ability
to date of PM Qarase's government to improve the lives of
ordinary citizens, concerns about the confrontational
leadership style of opposition FLP leader Chaudhry, worries
about whether an FLP-led government would stir another
ethnic-Fijian-led coup (which factor might move some Indian
votes to the NFP party),the Fiji military's repeated
interventions into the political process in recent months in
tacit opposition to Qarase's SDL, and Commodore Bainimarama's
public threats to remove the future government if Qarase wins
election and continues past ethnic-oriented policies (refs),
it would be foolhardy to predict the election's outcome.
A free and fair election? Observers will help judge
-------------- --------------
12. (U) A number of observers from abroad will be in Fiji
for the elections, with sizable delegations from the EU and
the Commonwealth. We intend to observe a number of key
polling sites using embassy personnel, with the intent to
make our own judgment of whether the process appears "free
and fair." The University of the South Pacific will send out
observers. Each major party will have poll watchers. The
media, already reporting heavily and generally independently,
will watch as well. The Fiji Police intend to have some 1500
personnel on the electoral beat, both observing polling
places and securing ballots through the counting. And the
Fiji military will be observing the whole process from its
own vantage points. Australian and New Zealand advisors to
the elections office predict the process will be within the
range of "free and fair." Fiji Police Commissioner Hughes
agrees. Military commander Bainimarama has told us he is
convinced Qarase and his SDL cohort have already corrupted
the process irredeemably. If the SDL loses, it may well be
arguable that the Fiji military's blatantly anti-SDL lobbying
and threats of a coup in recent months tarnished the process.
And then what? Unstable options?
--------------
13 (C) It appears there are two likely outcomes to the
election: either Qarase's SDL or Chaudhry's FLP forms the
next government, on its own if it has the numbers, or in
league with third parties and independent candidates to reach
the magic majority of 36 seats. If Qarase's SDL returns and
resumes its legislative path toward controversial
reconciliation and fishing-rights bills, the specter of
Commodore Bainimarama's threat to intervene arises. If after
winning the elections, Qarase seeks to have the "system"
remove Bainimarama, that could easily be another red-line to
trigger military intervention. If Chaudhry's FLP takes
power, many will expect ethnic-Fijian nationalists to begin
plotting their own coup yet again, despite Fiji military and
police intentions to oppose any such action. The only
clarity is that no electoral outcome appears an inherently
stable path forward for Fiji's democracy.
DINGER