BULGARIA SCENESETTER FOR MAY 25-26 VISIT OF

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 000719

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT PASS TO EUR/SCE STEPHEN GEE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV KRKO SR BU
SUBJECT: BULGARIA SCENESETTER FOR MAY 25-26 VISIT OF
SPECIAL REPRESENTATIVE FRANK WISNER

REF: SOFIA 681

SOFIA 00000719 001.2 OF 002



1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Bulgaria has sought to play a positive and
constructive role in helping to bring about a successful
outcome to the talks regarding Kosovo's future status. Sofia
has maintained a balanced approach to the talks and avoided
favoring one side or solution over another. However, the
Prime Minister has said privately that Serbia needs "special
consideration," and most Bulgarians are not reconciled to
Kosovo's independence, at least in the short term. Bulgaria
sees its role as helping to encourage reconciliation between
the two sides and creating a positive environment for the
talks. Bulgaria has a vested interest in the stability of
its neighbors, which is a key factor driving its interest in
the current negotiations. End Summary.


2. (SBU) Despite being preoccupied with EU accession, Sofia
has been quite active lately in the Western Balkans--with a
number of recent trips by the President, Prime Minister and
others senior officials to Serbia and Montenegro, Kosovo and
Macedonia. Bulgaria currently maintains good relations with
all of its neighbors, including Serbia and Macedonia, and is
seen by both the Serbs and Kosovar Albanians as being
even-handed and objective on the issue of Kosovo's final
status. Bulgaria has used its status as an unbiased partner
to encourage initiatives aimed at helping to build confidence
and mutual trust between Serbs and Kosovar Albanians.


3. (SBU) The Bulgarian Culture Minister Stephan Danailov last
December hosted a very successful meeting between his Serbian
and Kosovar counterparts to discuss the protection of
cultural monuments. Danailov revisited the subject once again
on trip to Kosovo May 16 and 17, where he discussed
Bulgaria's possible participation in UNESCO programs for the
preservation and maintenance of Orthodox churches in Kosovo.
The GOB has made a proposal to the Swiss government to
organized seminars on decentralization for mayors in Kosovo.
Bulgaria also is helping to strengthen Kosovo's
administrative capacity by training Kosovar Albanian
diplomats and judges. Bulgarian officials highlight the
purchase of a sheet metal factory in Kosovo by a Bulgarian
firm as one example of the country's contribution to Kosovo's
economic development. Bulgaria also supplies Kosovo with
electricity during the winter. Moreover, Sofia is
contributing to Kosovo's peacekeeping efforts with 42
soldiers and 36 (soon to be 52) police officers.


4. (SBU) Bulgarian officials have emphasized that Bulgaria's
position on Kosovo remains very close to that of the United
States. Some Embassy contacts believe Bulgaria, given its
current fixation on EU membership, would prefer to leave the
question of Kosovo's status to the EU and the United States.
We suspect that the GOB would likely support any agreement on
Kosovo that is backed by both the EU and U.S. Bulgaria's main
concern regarding Kosovo's status is ensuring the continued
stability of the region. Officials have taken to heart the
fears of others that the final agreement could lead to the
destabilization of the region and radicalization of some
communities, especially if the result is seen as negative.
Bulgarians still have fresh memories of the Balkan wars in
the 1990s, which had a devastating effect on economy,
particularly for towns along the Danube which have never
fully recovered. Bulgaria is also sensitive to the impact
that the talks might have on the delicate ethnic balance in
neighboring Macedonia. Instability in Macedonia would
undoubtedly have an impact in Bulgaria.


5. (SBU) The key factor that Bulgaria believes can stabilize
the region is EU and NATO integration. Officials reiterate
that Serbia, Kosovo and the rest of the Western Balkans need
to have a clear prospect of European integration in order to
bring stability and economic development to the region. They
consider a road map for EU integration, with its set
expectations and goals, a useful tool for the Western Balkans
countries to begin reorienting themselves towards the EU.
President Purvanov, in a presentation to CSIS last October,
went so far as to say that the borders between the Balkan
countries, which were the cause of so many conflicts, would
no longer matter after EU integration, and that radicalism
and separatism would become obsolete. Officials also see
Euro-Atlantic integration as an important incentive to
encourage Serbia to make compromises. Our MFA contacts have
said that a way should be found to preserve Serbia's dignity
and that it would be helpful to somehow "fast-track" Serbia's
European integration as a way to soften the blow if Kosovo
were to become independent.


6. (SBU) Investment in infrastructure is another important
factor that Bulgarian officials often mentioned as helping to
bring stability to the region. Officials have said that the

SOFIA 00000719 002.2 OF 002


U.S., in particular, could help in the economic development
of Serbia by encouraging U.S. firms to invest and participate
in various infrastructure projects like the reconstruction of
the highway from Sofia to Nis.


7. (SBU) Comment: Most Bulgarians do not accept that Kosovo
will or should be independent in the short term; in this
sense their "gut" position is closer to Belgrade's than
Pristina's. Yet regardless of the Bulgarians' generally
positive feelings toward Serbia, the Bulgarian government can
be counted on to play a constructive role and to support
whatever outcome the two sides and the international
community agree upon.
Beyrle