Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06SOFIA661
2006-05-10 11:47:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Sofia
Cable title:  

BULGARIA: EXTREME NATIONALISTS REAPING WHAT THEY

Tags:  PGOV MARR PINR SOCI RU BU 
pdf how-to read a cable
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RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHSF #0661/01 1301147
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 101147Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY SOFIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1885
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 000661 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV MARR PINR SOCI RU BU
SUBJECT: BULGARIA: EXTREME NATIONALISTS REAPING WHAT THEY
SOW

REF: SOFIA 0647

SOFIA 00000661 001.2 OF 002


UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 000661

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV MARR PINR SOCI RU BU
SUBJECT: BULGARIA: EXTREME NATIONALISTS REAPING WHAT THEY
SOW

REF: SOFIA 0647

SOFIA 00000661 001.2 OF 002



1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The extreme nationalist party Ataka is
reeling from self-inflicted wounds just one year after its
founding. A recent scandal steming from the erratic behavior
of several Ataka members following a highway accident has
contributed to a sharp decline in the party's support and led
to further splits and likely defections within the already
dwindling group. The party's fiery leader Volen Siderov is
expected to be stripped of his parliamentary immunity to face
charges of perjury, inducement of perjury and obstruction of
justice related to the incident. Siderov's hope of drawing
huge crowds of protestors during the NATO ministerial
fizzled, leading the mainstream press to adopt a largely
disparaging tone. Despite the party's current travails, it
may be too soon to begin writing Ataka's obituary. Given the
public's persistent discontent with the mainstream parties
and the appeal of Ataka's nationalist rhetoric, there is
still room in the political spectrum for a nationalist
anti-establishment party. END SUMMARY

-------------- ---
TRAKIYA INCIDENT REVEALS THE TRUE FACE OF ATAKA
-------------- ---


2. (SBU) Ataka's latest troubles began with the events
surrounding a car accident on the Trakiya highway on April
7th. Initial media reports stated that Ataka deputy Pavel
Chernev had physically assaulted the driver of another
vehicle following a collision with the car carrying Chernev
and Ataka leader Volen Siderov. Chernev and Siderov
characterized the incident as an attempt on the Ataka
leader's life. Chernev first told authorities that the
would-be "assassin" had bumped his car and tried to force him
off the road. Chernev, however, later changed his account of
the story claiming that he was never driving the car but was
in the back seat, feeling unwell and could not recall what
had occurred. The "would-be assassin," meanwhile, turned out
to be a 22-year old student driving his sick grandfather to
the hospital. He told police that the driver of Siderov's
car smashed his windshield, slashed his tires and began

beating him on the head, screaming "you will die here."


3. (SBU) Following a public uproar over the assault and faced
with criminal charges, Chernev eventually confessed that
Siderov had in fact forced him to lie in order to protect his
real driver Lyubomir Bakurdzhiev, who has a criminal record.
Chernev acknowledged he was never in Siderov's car, but had
traveled separately with a friend, which was later
substantiated by a gas station video camera showing Chernev
in a separate vehicle. Bakardzhiev, on probation for
stealing chewing gum and razors from a store, later admitted
his responsibility for the attack. Bakardzhiev, after his
confession, hinted that he knew many details about Siderov's
private life, which he would disclose to whomever offered him
the most money.


4. (SBU) The Trakiya incident has sparked strong criticism
from the press and political elite. Shortly after the
assault, the Bulgarian parliament passed by a two-thirds
majority a declaration condemning the behavior of the Ataka
politicians as "a brutal act of hooliganism," which showed
"complete disregard for other people's dignity, public order
and state institutions." The strongly-worded declaration
highlighted the "arrogance" of Siderov and Chernev (who then
was presumed responsible) in portraying themselves as
victims, and called on the prosecutor's office and Interior
Ministry to take swift criminal action in the case. After
further investigation, Prosecutor General Boris Velchev on
April 28 made a formal request to parliament to strip Siderov
of his immunity to face charges of perjury, inducement of
perjury and obstruction of justice.

--------------
ATAKA ON DEFENSE
--------------


5. (SBU) Many commentators have noted that the highway
incident has exposed the true face of Ataka as a party of
hooligans, two-bit criminals and opportunists. Ataka is now
paying a heavy price for this unmasking with sharply
declining rates of popularity. According to some recent
polls, Ataka's has lost as much as 40 percent of its support
as a result of the scandal--shrinking from 11.1 percent
support to 6.5 percent. Depending on the poll, Ataka has
fallen to the third or fourth position in the polls after the
Sofia Mayor Boiko Borisov's prospective party (GERB),the
Socialists, and the mainly ethnic-Turkish MRF. This setback
reversed an upward trend since February in which Ataka was
gaining 2-3 percent support a month.


SOFIA 00000661 002.2 OF 002



6. (SBU) The controversy over the Trakiya incident has also
caused further fragmentation within the party. Ataka's
coordinator for Sofia, Khristo Krayselski, announced that the
party would propose expelling Chernev and four other party
members deemed "not worthy of confidence." Krayselski said
the party "will be strict with everyone who is disloyal and
harms the good image (sic!) of the party, and misrepresents
and ridicules the leader." Among the other Ataka deputies
targeted for explusion is Pelo Stoev, the first person to
announce to the press that he and Chernev were traveling in a
separate vehicle the night of the assault. At the same time,
the more moderate Ataka coalition member and apparent rival
to Siderov's leadership, Petar Beron, told the press that he
will soon establish a new parliamentary group called "Ataka
Coalition" that would exclude Siderov and his cronies.
Siderov's recent actions, according to Beron, prove that he
is unworthy of the honor of leading a nationalist movement.
Any further division within Ataka, whose parliamentary group
already has shrunk from 21 to 14 members, could bring the
party's divisive existence to an end.

--------------
BASING PROTEST FIZZLES
--------------


7. (SBU) The lukewarm turnout for Ataka's long-planned rally
during the NATO ministerial was a further blow to the party's
standing. Rather than the "tens of thousands" of Ataka
supporters that Siderov promised would take to the streets to
protest Bulgaria's Defense Cooperation Agreement with the
U.S., the police estimated that approximately 1000 protestors
attended the demonstration. The numbers decreased even
further (to roughly 300 by our estimates) when the group
attempted to deliver their anti-basing petition to the U.S.
Embassy. The party had planned to hold a second day of
protests, but eventually cancelled the rally--possibly due to
lack of interest--stating there was no point since Secretary
Rice had already departed Bulgaria. One newspaper's
summarized the party's efforts with the headline, "Feeble
Attack Against NATO."

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


8. (SBU) Despite the justifiable outpouring of Schadenfreude
from the majority of Bulgarians who have always regarded
Ataka with contempt or shame, it is too soon to predict the
party's demise. The current, cozy three-party coalition has
left many supporters of the mainstream parties disillusioned
and dissatisfied. With the traditional opposition still weak
and divided, populist and nationalist groups like Ataka have
ample opportunity to attract public support. Ataka, however,
now faces a serious challenge from Sofia Mayor Boiko
Borisov's new political formation, GERB,(reftel) which offers
many of the same simple and clear solutions but may represent
a more acceptable, and therefore promising alternative for
dissatisfied voters.
Beyrle