Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06SOFIA1597
2006-11-22 09:59:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Sofia
Cable title:  

BULGARIA STRUGGLES TO SHED CAVEATS ON THE ROAD TO

Tags:  PREL MARR MOPS NATO BU 
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PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHSF #1597/01 3260959
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 220959Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY SOFIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2864
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 001597 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/NCE, EUR/RPM

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/2016
TAGS: PREL MARR MOPS NATO BU
SUBJECT: BULGARIA STRUGGLES TO SHED CAVEATS ON THE ROAD TO
RIGA

REF: A. SOFIA 1491


B. SOFIA 1509

C. SOFIA 1573

D. STATE 186256

E. USNATO 658

SOFIA 00001597 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Ambassador John Beyrle, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 001597

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/NCE, EUR/RPM

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/2016
TAGS: PREL MARR MOPS NATO BU
SUBJECT: BULGARIA STRUGGLES TO SHED CAVEATS ON THE ROAD TO
RIGA

REF: A. SOFIA 1491


B. SOFIA 1509

C. SOFIA 1573

D. STATE 186256

E. USNATO 658

SOFIA 00001597 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Ambassador John Beyrle, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: In the lead-up to the Riga Summit, the GOB
supports nearly every item on the U.S. agenda, but continues
to struggle with a shortage of funds, equipment, and
"capabilities" as it looks toward elimination of national
caveats and more demanding missions overseas. Bulgaria's
commitment to an additional ISAF deployment in 2007 is an
important signal of political will, as is the Defense
Minister's bruising, but so far successful fight to keep
defense spending above 2.5% of GDP. Meeting one of SACEUR's
target missions in Afghanistan, however, will depend upon a
partnership that matches Bulgarian will with allied equipment
and funds. On enlargement and PfP, we can expect Bulgaria to
advocate a "regional approach" that pushes conditional PfP
membership for Serbia and Bosnia as well as "equal
encouragement" to all Adriatic Charter countries. END
SUMMARY.


2. (C) Bulgaria will be represented at the Riga Summit by
recently reelected President Georgi Parvanov, Foreign
Minister Ivaylo Kalfin, and Defense Minister Vesselin
Bliznakov. All three are committed Euro-Atlanticists and
have been engaged in a political fight over defense spending
sparked when the government's draft budget for 2007 slashed
defense expenditures from 2.6% to 2.3% of GDP. After
extensive lobbying by the Ambassador and Defense Minister,
parliamentarians and Finance Minister Plamen Oresharski now
tell us that the coalition has agreed in principle to
increase defense funding to 2.5% of GDP, but is still
debating how to get there. NOTE: While Bulgarian
expenditures are impressive in percentage terms, Bulgaria's
low GDP per capita means that the defense budget is small in
real terms. We continue to advise the GOB that both the
quantity and quality of defense expenditures are important as

Bulgaria struggles to meet the competing demands of
modernizing equipment, professionalizing the services and
deploying overseas. END NOTE.

Afghanistan
--------------


3. (C) Current planning at the MOD calls for Bulgaria's
deployment of 150 troops in Afghanistan to rise to
approximately 200 in 2007 as Bulgarian forces wrap up their
Kabul Airport management mission and take the place of
Hungarian forces who will redeploy in a PRT. Defense
Minister Bliznakov and MFA contacts (including Deputy Foreign
Ministers) have repeatedly told us of their strong desire to
lift caveats on their forces, emphasizing that equipment and
training -- not politics -- are the obstacle and that they
are trying hard to find the necessary resources. Bulgarian
thinking on a PRT appears to be moving in the right
direction. On October 26, Defense Minister Bliznakov told us
that Bulgaria felt unprepared for a PRT (ref. A). On
November 17, however, MOD Defense Policy Director Col. Ivan
Milanov stated that he views a Bulgarian PRT as inevitable
and that the MOD is studying participation in the Hungarian
PRT in Pol-e Khomri.

Enlargement/PfP
--------------


4. (C) Bulgaria's view on expanded membership in Partnership
for Peace is closely tied to its "regional approach" toward
the Western Balkans. According to MFA NATO Director Asia
Davidova, Bulgaria is on board with our Kosovo policy, and
understands our concerns over conditionality, but fears the
consequences of any instability in neighboring Serbia and
Macedonia. With this in mind, Davidova said, the GOB views
"conditional PfP" for Serbia and Bosnia as essential to
ensuring stability in the region in the wake of Kosovo final
status.


5. (C) Bulgaria's regional approach extends to the Adriatic
Charter nations as well. Bulgaria actively supports the NATO
aspirations of all three countries, and is particularly
involved in supporting military reform efforts in Macedonia.
While supportive of President Bush's recent statement on
Croatian membership in 2008, Davidova argued that all A3
countries should be given "equal encouragement" at Riga as

SOFIA 00001597 002 OF 002


well as individualized, standards-based assessments to
emphasize that membership depends on concrete progress.


6. (C) Davidova emphasized that Bulgaria will continue its
role as NATO contact point embassy in Tbilisi, and remains a
strong supporter of Intensified Dialogue for Georgia. She
cautioned, however, that with such support came a Georgian
responsibility to redouble efforts at democratic reform and
peaceful resolution of frozen conflicts. On Ukraine,
Davidova admitted to being confused by "mixed signals" from
Kyiv on interest in a Membership Action Plan (ref. B).
Bulgaria is open to engaging Ukraine, she said, but Kyiv must
first decide what it wants. Davidova noted with concern that
the issues of public support Ukraine is dealing with never
arose during the candidacy of countries like Bulgaria.

Partnership and Training
--------------


7. (C) According to Davidova, Bulgaria supports the U.S. view
on global partnership, and favors opening the PfP toolbox to
partners such as Australia and Japan. On training, the
Bulgarian view is less defined -- the GOB is prepared to
consider participation in a Mobile Training Team, but does
not have a strong opinion on proposals for a permanent
training center.

Black Sea
--------------


8. (C) Bulgaria has long favored a stronger role for NATO in
Black Sea security, preferably through an expansion of
Operation Active Endeavor (OAE) to the Black Sea. The recent
visit of Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Mike Mullen to
Bulgaria (ref. C) highlighted Bulgaria's emerging Black Sea
Policy, which views NATO and the EU as instruments to advance
the views of smaller littoral states such as Bulgaria in the
face of what it sees as excessive Russian and Turkish
influence in Black Sea affairs.

Comment: Getting to yes on Afghanistan
--------------


9. (C) Bulgaria's leaders have taken tough political
decisions (e.g., on the defense budget) to sustain their
commitment to the Alliance. We have engaged them extensively
on both caveats and force generation for Afghanistan;
however, with a World Bank-estimated per capita GDP of
approximately $3400 in 2005, Bulgaria lags behind other
Allies in economic punch and faces serious resource
restraints on defense. The Bulgarian military lacks armored
transports (BG forces had to borrow U.S. HMMWVs for their
Iraq infantry deployment in 2003-5) as well as tents, desert
uniforms, and other basic equipment.


10. (C) If we can "partner" Allies' resources to Bulgaria's
political will to lift caveats and accept more ambitious
deployments, we believe that we can turn the corner on this
key NATO goal. This will take commitments by Allies. We
should test the proposition at Riga, and hammer home the
point when FM Kalfin visits Washington on December 19. END
COMMENT.

BEYRLE