Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06SOFIA1499
2006-10-30 12:41:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Sofia
Cable title:  

INCUMBENT PARVANOV SCORES LANDSLIDE VICTORY IN BULGARIAN

Tags:  PGOV BU 
pdf how-to read a cable
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OO RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
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DE RUEHSF #1499/01 3031241
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 301241Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY SOFIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2748
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 001499 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV BU
SUBJECT: INCUMBENT PARVANOV SCORES LANDSLIDE VICTORY IN BULGARIAN
PRESIDENTIAL RUN-OFF

Ref: (A) SOFIA 1370, (B) SOFIA 1465, (C) E-GRAM 3 FROM SOFIA, (D)
SOFIA 661

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 001499

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV BU
SUBJECT: INCUMBENT PARVANOV SCORES LANDSLIDE VICTORY IN BULGARIAN
PRESIDENTIAL RUN-OFF

Ref: (A) SOFIA 1370, (B) SOFIA 1465, (C) E-GRAM 3 FROM SOFIA, (D)
SOFIA 661


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Incumbent President Georgi Parvanov scored a
decisive victory against extreme nationalist Volen Siderov in the
October 29 run-off, becoming Bulgaria's first president re-elected
since communism collapsed. The former Socialist leader captured
75.9 percent of a weak turnout, an unprecedented result for
Bulgarian post-communist elections, while Siderov had 24.1 percent.
In an election-night news conference, Parvanov said he would stick
to his "predictable and consistent" foreign policies and maintain
his tolerant, balanced tone at home, which have won him wide
popularity over the past five years. Siderov admitted defeat but
presented his loss as a success for his young party. The non-
partisan Central Electoral Commission said there were no serious
election irregularities. Parvanov will take an oath for a second
five-year term in office January 22. His victory will further
stabilize the Socialist-led government he helped create, bolster
his profile as Bulgaria's most prominent politician in what is
otherwise a largely ceremonial post, and add continuity to a strong
relationship with the U.S. END SUMMARY

UNPRECEDENTED VICTORY


2. (SBU) His unprecedented 76 percent majority is a stunning
success for 49-year-old Parvanov, the mild-mannered historian who
won a surprise election victory five years ago by a negligible
margin (Ref. A, B). The former Socialist leader, who has won
admiration for his moderate rhetoric and statesmanlike positions on
both domestic and foreign policy issues, won the election in every
single electoral region, garnering votes from all age groups and
social strata. Campaigning under the slogan "President of All
Bulgarians," he was backed by all three parties in the ruling
Socialist-led coalition that also includes the ethnic Turkish
Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) and ex-PM Simeon Saxe-
Coburg's National Movement for Simeon II. He also garnered the
votes of some 60 percent of the center-right voters who cast their
vote in the run-off, although many stayed home after the bitter
defeat of their candidate in the first round (Ref. C).

NO FOREIGN POLICY CHANGES


3. (U) A jubilant Parvanov told an election night news conference
he expected a stronger second term in office, but made clear he

would not make any drastic changes to his current policies. A
consistent voice in support of a moderate, pro-U.S. foreign policy,
especially in the GWOT, Iraq and Afghanistan, Parvanov said he
would stick to his "predictable and consistent foreign policy," and
vowed that Bulgaria would remain a reliable international partner.
"Our foreign policy will continue to be active, effective and
predictable, standing up for our national identity and a worthy
membership of the EU," said Parvanov, under whose first term in
office Bulgaria joined NATO and finalized EU accession talks. With
regard to domestic policies, Parvanov said he would continue to pay
special attention to social issues, work to improve the
effectiveness of state administration, work closely with local
governments, and support armed-forces modernization. Widely viewed
as the godfather of the current Socialist-led coalition, Parvanov
said he would continue his "working relationship" with the
government of Sergei Stanishev, but noted he would not spare any
criticism.

SIDEROV PRESENTS LOSS AS "MAJOR SUCCESS"


4. (SBU) The leader of extreme nationalist Ataka party Volen
Siderov, who campaigned on populist, anti-government rhetoric, put
a brave face on his election loss, saying it represented the
"awakening of the Bulgarian people" and a "major success" for his
young party, formed in mid-2005 (Ref. D.). Siderov, a former
journalist, noted that he won twice as many votes in the
presidential election as Ataka received in the 2005 general
election. He said his party has become a "major factor" in
Bulgarian politics and forecast it would do even better in the 2007
local polls. Although admitting defeat, Siderov accused the
Socialists and the MRF of election fraud, saying that the election
results in the MRF-controlled municipalities had been manipulated.

PROTEST VOTE


5. (SBU) Siderov, who won the votes of discontented
Bulgariansdiscontented Bulgarians by accusing mainstream
politicians of corruption and lack of attention to the hardships of
ordinary people, said the election results confirmed his party as
the only alternative to the "corrupt ruling clique." He called
Parvanov "the candidate of the mafia and the MRF," and again
blasted him for engineering the "corrupt" Socialist-led government
and bringing the ethnic Turkish MRF into it. Known for his strong
anti-Turkish views, Siderov went as far as to describe as
"symbolic" the fact that the day of the run-off coincided with
Turkey's national day.


SOFIA 00001499 002 OF 002



6. (SBU) Voter turnout in the run-off was around 41 percent,
according to preliminary data, compared to 42.5 percent in the
first round a week ago and 55 percent in the presidential run-off
five years ago. Commentators attributed the low turnout to general
discontent with mainstream parties, the absence in the run-off of a
right-wing candidate, and the largely ceremonial powers of the
president. In nominal terms, support for Parvanov increased by 14
percent in the run-off compared to his first-round result, while
support for Siderov rose by seven percent. The majority of center-
right voters skipped the vote, and of those who cast their ballots
some 60-65 percent backed Parvanov.


7. (SBU) COMMENT: Parvanov's re-election is a precedent for post-
communist Bulgaria, where no party or president has won a second
term in office. Despite the largely ceremonial post, the
President's record-high result will bolster his standing as
Bulgaria's most influential politician and further stabilize the
three-party coalition he helped create. Much of Siderov's support
represents a protest vote rather than endorsement of his
xenophobic, anti-U.S. views. The limited rise in his support in
the run-off illustrates the narrow potential of his Ataka party to
attract broader support absent a reversal of Bulgaria's economic
fortunes or some other external shock. The center-right, which
failed to unite around a strong candidate, showed once again that
it never misses an opportunity to miss an opportunity. The shock
of this loss should logically lead to the political demise of
former Prime Minister Ivan Kostov, whose distaste for his old
colleagues from the anti-communist movement seems stronger than his
dislike of the Socialists. But don't count on it.


8. With the Presidential race finished and EU entry around the
corner, Bulgaria enters a new political season. Parvanov's easy re-
election symbolizes the stability that Bulgaria needs to project as
a new EU member seeking increased foreign investment. Beneath the
surface, though, lurk several sources of friction or weakness: the
complex and subtle struggle between Parvanov and Prime Minister
Stanishev over party control; dim prospects for the center-right to
re-group as a potent force capable of attracting voters; and the
wild-card chance for a new political alignment if the party of
charismatic Sofia Mayor Borissov gathers steam. In short, a
disgruntled and apathetic electorate will have no shortage of
political theater to consider, little of which they appear to
connect with their everyday lives. END COMMENT
BEYRLE