BULGARIAN MOD COMMITTED TO IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 001491

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/NCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR MOPS NATO BU
SUBJECT: BULGARIAN MOD COMMITTED TO IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN,
WORRIED ABOUT BUDGET

REF: SOFIA E-GRAM NO. 4 (10/26/06)

Classified By: Ambassador John Beyrle, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: In an October 25 meeting with the Ambassador,
Defense Minister Veselin Bliznakov confirmed the GOB's
willingness to extend its current mission in Iraq, and
discussed plans to increase the Bulgarian deployment in
Afghanistan. He also outlined the challenges the ministry
will face if the National Assembly implements proposed cuts
to Bulgaria's defense budget, and requested our help in
lobbying the government to keep its NATO commitment of
spending 2.6% of GDP on defense. END SUMMARY.

FORWARD-LEANING ON IRAQ...
--------------


2. (C) Bliznakov and his deputy, Sonia Yankulova, were
confident in the Bulgarian government's willingness to extend
the military's current mission at Camp Ashraf in Iraq after
their current mission expires in March 2007. In their words,
planning for an extended mission has already begun, and the
government is only awaiting approval of an extended UN
mandate before making the decision official.

...BUT NOT READY FOR AFGHAN PRT
--------------


3. (C) On Afghanistan, the Minister confirmed reports that
Bulgaria plans to send an additional company to Afghanistan
in 2007. These troops would be placed under Italian command,
taking the place of Hungarian forces who will be departing to
join a PRT. Bliznakov demurred on the question of a future
Bulgarian PRT. The MoD could provide the military component,
he said, but "these teams demand other capabilities which we
do not have," including equipment, logistics, and
appropriately-trained civilian personnel.


4. (C) In fact, Bliznakov continued, even the more modest
additional deployment proposed by Bulgaria could be cast into
doubt unless outstanding defense procurement issues were
quickly resolved. He referred in particular to the GOB's
contract with Daimler Chrysler for jeeps, which is currently
on hold due to a dispute with the Ministry of Energy and
Economy over offset investments. Bliznakov argued that
failure to resolve this issue could derail a future Afghan
deployment, as Bulgarian troops would rely on these vehicles
for mobility. Deploying without appropriate transport would
be senseless, he said, as the troops would have to be subject
to such severe national caveats as to be almost useless.


5. (C) Further to the issue of caveats, Bliznakov and
Yankulova acknowledged SG de Hoop Scheffer's call for Allies
to eliminate national caveats, and announced that they were
looking at ways of doing so. The chief obstacle was not
national will, they said, but making sure their forces were
prepared and equipped for any contingency.

HEADING TO RIGA "WITH HANDS TIED"
--------------


6. (C) Looking toward the upcoming NATO Summit in Riga,
Bliznakov lamented the lack of coordination between the NATO
summit schedule and national budget cycles, complaining that
decisions affecting the next two years would be taken, but
that budgets would already be set -- effectively tying the
GOB's hands.


7. (C) Bliznakov outlined budget discussions currently under
way in the National Assembly, saying that a cut in defense
spending from 2.6% to 2.28% of GDP was currently being
discussed. (NOTE: While greater as a percentage of GDP than
many NATO Allies, 2.28% of Bulgarian GDP would amount to
little more than $600m annually -- sufficiently low to stall
foreign deployments and make meaningful defense procurement
impossible. END NOTE.) Bliznakov intends to use an
appearance before Parliament during the week of Oct. 30 to
press opposition parties and coalition partners alike on the
importance of meeting Bulgaria's NATO commitments and
maintaining expenditures at the 2.6% level.


8. (C) The Minister, a representative of the center-right
National Movement for Simeon the Second (NMSS) said that he
had "the full support" of his party on the issue, and that he
expected support from right-wing opposition parties as well.
The position of fellow coalition members in the Bulgarian

SOFIA 00001491 002 OF 002


Socialist Party (BSP) and ethnic-Turkish Movement for Rights
and Freedoms (MRF) remained an open question -- while the BSP
Prime Minister had recently agreed to negotiate a multi-year
plan for Bulgarian deployments abroad, the plan was wishful
thinking unless sufficient funds were allocated. Bliznakov
said he did not intend to rock the coalition's boat on this
issue, but invoked a Bulgarian expression: "clean accounts,
good friends."


9. (C) The Ambassador responded that we would not get
involved in the coalition's internal politics, but that our
Allies' defense spending was a matter of U.S. national
interest as well. In that spirit, we would be making the
case for 2.6% at the highest levels of the government and
parliamentary leadership.

SLOW AND STEADY PROCESS ON JOINT BASES
--------------


10. (C) Bliznakov praised the results of a recent poll (ref.)
showing a dramatic decline in opposition to joint bases, and
announced the appointment of highly-regarded Deputy Minister
Yankulova as coordinator for negotiation of Implementing
Arrangements to the Defense Cooperation Agreement.


11. (C) On the issue of fighter aircraft procurement,
Bliznakov indicated that the ministry's budget woes would
make this a back-burner issue for the time being. While the
Bulgarian Air Force has previously scoffed at the idea of
replacing Bulgaria's aging MiGs with used aircraft, the
Minister indicated for the first time that used F-16s were an
option they were willing to consider. In Deputy Minister
Yankulova's words, "the General Staff's preference (for new
aircraft) is clear, but both options are possible."

COMMENT:
--------------


12. (C) The Ministry of Defense has been a consistent
supporter of Bulgaria's engagement in Iraq and Afghanistan,
though perhaps a bit skittish about taking off the training
wheels in an Afghan PRT. The budget obstacles they face are
serious, and we are serious about pushing the government to
maintain current levels of spending. There may be a silver
lining to this scare, however, if a budgetary reality check
forces the GOB to look more critically at defense
procurement. Our experts have long advised the Bulgarian
military that money spent on high-profile, high-dollar
projects would be better invested in boots and tents. The
encouraging results of recent polling shows that our
investment in public diplomacy outreach is paying off -- we
will redouble our efforts as we move through final
negotiations and look to the "proof of principle" deployment
in summer 2007.

BEYRLE