Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06SOFIA1369
2006-09-25 15:11:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Sofia
Cable title:  

BULGARIA,S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: PARVANOV HAS

Tags:  PGOV BU 
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DE RUEHSF #1369/01 2681511
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 251511Z SEP 06
FM AMEMBASSY SOFIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2612
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SOFIA 001369 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/24/2016
TAGS: PGOV BU
SUBJECT: BULGARIA,S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: PARVANOV HAS
INSIDE TRACK, BUT NATIONALISTS MAY BE SKUNK AT THE PARTY

REF: (A) SOFIA 661 (B) SOFIA 786 (C) SOFIA 968 (D)
SOFIA 1080

Classified By: Ambassador John Beyrle, reasons 1.4(b) and (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SOFIA 001369

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/24/2016
TAGS: PGOV BU
SUBJECT: BULGARIA,S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: PARVANOV HAS
INSIDE TRACK, BUT NATIONALISTS MAY BE SKUNK AT THE PARTY

REF: (A) SOFIA 661 (B) SOFIA 786 (C) SOFIA 968 (D)
SOFIA 1080

Classified By: Ambassador John Beyrle, reasons 1.4(b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Incumbent Georgi Parvanov, a consistent
supporter of moderate, pro-U.S. policies, looks poised to win
re-election, if not on October 22 then in a second-round run
off the following week. The conspicuous absence from the
line-up of the charismatic Sofia Mayor Boiko Borissov has
drained the contest of the high drama that would have
resulted from a head-to-head race between Bulgaria,s two
most popular officials. In the absence of strong alternative
candidates, attention is focused on whether Parvanov can win
an outright victory and on whom he may face if he goes to a
run-off. Parvanov,s main rival is Constitutional Court
justice Nedelcho Beronov, a political novice nominated by a
center-right coalition of convenience, but a strong showing
by extreme nationalist candidate Volen Siderov is also
possible. Bulgaria,s record of political surprises
notwithstanding, an upset loss by Parvanov seems unlikely.
All signs suggest the former Socialist leader, who played a
key role in engineering the current center-left coalition, is
set to become Bulgaria's first president re-elected since the
end of communism. END SUMMARY


2. (SBU) The Bulgarian president has mostly ceremonial duties
and limited power. More is at stake in this election because
of Parvanov's strong behind-the-scenes influence over the
current government. The vote is largely seen as a referendum
on the performance of the Socialist-led coalition, brokered
by Parvanov in August 2005 following indecisive general
elections. The three-party coalition, formed with EU
accession as its top priority, also includes ex-King Simeon
Saxe-Coburg's Movement for Simeon II (NMSS) and the
predominantly ethnic Turkish Movement for Rights and Freedoms
(MRF),but is often referred as a &coalition of four8
because of Parvanov's hand. The President has installed key
members from his staff in the political cabinet of his
protg, PM Sergey Stanishev, including the foreign minister.
The new president will lead Bulgaria into the European Union
in January of 2007.

THE KEY CONTESTANTS

--------------


3. (U) Seven pairs of candidates for president and
vice-president have registered for the vote, but opinion
polls suggest the real battle will be among the following
contestants:


4. (C) GEORGI PARVANOV, 49, won a surprise victory in the
2001 presidential election in a dramatic twist that is a
vivid example of the unpredictability of Bulgarian politics.
Elected BSP chairman in 1996, Parvanov played a key role in
revamping the ex-communist party into a social democratic
party endorsing Euro-Atlantic values. The soft-spoken
historian has come a long way himself, from leading anti-NATO
protests in the mid-1990s to being a staunch advocate of
Bulgaria's pro-Western policies. Since taking office as
president in January 2002, he has won wide respect for his
moderate, statesmanlike position on both domestic and foreign
policy issues. Parvanov has consistently supported a
centrist, pro-U.S. policy on the GWOT, Iraq and joint basing
facilities. He has skillfully walked the tightrope between
endorsing pro-U.S. policies and pleasing the leftist BSP core
electorate on which he relies for re-election. Even
Parvanov's political opponents admit that during his five
years in office he has not made a major gaffe, although some
add that he has not made any bold, memorable political
statements either. His occasional criticism of the
government and frequent comments on sensitive social issues
has helped him garner broad popularity, with current approval
ratings exceeding 60 percent. Even recent controversy about
his alleged collaboration with the former communist State
Security service (Ref. B) has not eroded his popularity.


5. (C) In order to expand his support beyond the BSP base,
Parvanov is running as an independent, with his campaign
expected to focus primarily on social issues. He has the
backing of the governing Socialists and the ethnic Turkish
MRF, the two parties with the most disciplined electorate.
His running mate, current Vice-President Angel Marin, a
conservative former general, appeals to the more hard-line
BSP voters who view Parvanov as too moderate. Officials from
Parvanov's camp deem his strong lead a double-edge sword,
fearing that some supporters may stay home if his victory is
seen as a foregone conclusion. That, coupled with the
general discontent with the Bulgarian political class, may
deny him a first-round win, according to our contacts in
Parvanov's camp.


6. (SBU) NEDELCHO BERONOV, 78, the outgoing chair of
Bulgaria's Constitutional Court, was nominated by the two
main center-right groups )- the Union of Democratic Forces
(UDF) and the Democrats for Strong Bulgaria (DSB) ) and
smaller right-wing parties. His joint nomination has failed
to disguise the continuing ego clashes among the leaders of a
center-right that has been in disarray since a bitter
election defeat in 2001. A respected lawyer with over 40
years on the bench, Beronov's reputation is untainted by
corruption. But he is a political novice little known to the
public and his candidacy has so far failed to excite the
disillusioned center-right voters, some of whom, according to
a recent poll, are inclined to support Parvanov. Beronov is
likely to attack Parvanov for his alleged ties with the
communist security services and his failure to take a more
decisive stand on the issues of crime and corruption.


7. (C) VOLEN SIDEROV, an ultra-nationalist known for his
rabid anti-U.S. rhetoric, was nominated by his weakened Ataka
party, which won a surprise nine percent of the vote in 2005
general elections. Once viewed as a progressive and talented
journalist, Siderov, 50, has become the most extreme voice in
Bulgarian politics since launching his nationalist Ataka
party in May 2005. The party appeared on the verge of
unraveling earlier this year as it was beset by high-profile
scandals, key defections and severe infighting. Ataka's
fiery leader was stripped of his parliamentary immunity and
charged with perjury and obstruction of justice (Ref. A).
Clearly, though, it is too early to write Siderov's political
obituary. Polls show he may become the surprise vote-getter
of this election due to Ataka's highly energized core
electorate and growing public discontent with mainstream
parties. Running on anti-government and anti-minority
rhetoric, Siderov is expected to attack the incumbent
President for his role in bringing the ethnic Turkish MRF
party into the government, a theme that resonates with
Bulgarian voters not so much because they are anti-Turkish,
but because the MRF is notoriously and unabashedly corrupt.
Siderov also reflects public opinion in his opposition to the
presence of U.S. forces in Bulgaria and the deployment of
Bulgarian forces abroad.


8. (U) Two other candidates with a track record are former
Constitutional Court judge GEORGI MARKOV, who is running on
the ticket of the marginal Order, Law and Justice
center-right party, and former armed forces Chief of Staff
Gen. LYUBEN PETROV, a hardliner who recently launched a
left-leaning nationalist party. Polls indicate that they have
negligible chances to make it to a run-off.

THE NOTABLE ABSENTEES ) THE GENERAL AND THE KING
-------------- ---


9. (C) The real story in the run-up to the presidential vote
has become, ironically, not who is running but who is not.
The most significant absentee is the highly popular Sofia
Mayor Boiko Borissov, who polls suggest could have a
realistic chance to oust Parvanov (Ref. D). A months-long
media frenzy centered on whether the charismatic General, who
previously served as Interior Ministry Chief Secretary, would
join the presidential race. The former bodyguard, who enjoys
near-heroic status in Bulgaria for his tough guy image, plain
language and clear messages, skillfully raised his
already-high profile. His contradictory statements on
whether he would or would not run made daily front-page
headlines, exacerbating fears in Parvanov's camp. Beronov's
staff, on the other hand, hoped to gain Borissov's
endorsement. Talks between center-right leaders and Borissov
collapsed partly due to an ego clash between the mayor and
DSB leader Ivan Kostov, another strongman. Ultimately,
Borissov announced he would not join the presidential contest
or endorse any candidate. Instead, he set the formal dbut
of his GERB political party for December 3, further fueling
speculation that he might be eyeing the more powerful PM
post. Borissov told us that he wants to revitalize and unify
the center right, hence his decision to launch a new party.


10. (C) Also missing from the line-up is ex-King Simeon II,
who already in the 1940's served as Bulgaria's head of state
as a child king but was deposed by the communists at the age
of six. The former PM was widely considered a possible
candidate for the presidency, which suits his royal
personality much better than the PM post. But with his
popularity sagging and his image severely tainted by a
corruption probe linked to the ongoing Savoy affair (Ref. C),
his chances of winning the election were close to zero.
Other NMSS officials have insisted that the party should name
a candidate to stay in the game and retain its political
identity (Ref. D). Simeon has vehemently maintained they do
not need to rock the coalition boat by naming a rival
candidacy that could anger the Socialists. The party decided
it would neither take part in the presidential race nor

endorse any candidate, a move which local press called
&political suicide.8 If not suicide, it is deeply
embarrassing and enervating to several top party leaders who
have confided in us.

ELECTION RULES AND PROCEDURES
--------------


11. (U) The election is preceded by a month-long campaign,
which kicked off September 19. Preliminary results are
announced by the Central Electoral Commission (CEC) within
several hours after the end of the voting. Final results are
announced by the CEC within 72 hours of the 8 p.m. poll
closing. Exit polls are allowed but results cannot be
revealed before polling stations close. Voting age is 18. If
no candidate wins more than 50 percent of the vote, or if
turnout is below 50 percent of the registered voters, a
run-off will be held between the two front-runners October

29. A simple majority, regardless of the turnout, determines
the winner in the run-off. The new president and vice
president will take the oath of office on January 19, 2007.


12. (C) COMMENT: All recent polls and analysts' projections
point to President Parvanov becoming Bulgaria's first
president to be re-elected since the fall of communism,
although voter apathy may prevent him from pulling off an
outright victory in the first round. Although his influence
on Stanishev has been lately decreasing as the young PM seeks
to break free from his mentor's influence, Parvanov's showing
will nevertheless reflect on the fortunes of the government.
A surprise loss by Parvanov similar to that of his
predecessor five years ago is unlikely, especially given that
according to our contacts within the campaign, Parvanov is
likely to stick to his usual moderate tone. The worst-case
scenario for Bulgaria in this election seems the possibility
for a strong protest vote propelling ultra nationalist
Siderov to a run-off, similar to Le Pen's race against Chirac
four years ago. If the traditional center-right fails to
make it into the second round, Sofia Mayor Borissov will be
well placed to step in and pick up the pieces. END COMMENT
BEYRLE