SCENESETTER FOR DAS ROSEMARY DICARLO'S VISIT TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 001273

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

EUR FOR DAS DICARLO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/08/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV UNMIK KPKO SR YI EU BU
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR DAS ROSEMARY DICARLO'S VISIT TO
SOFIA

REF: A. SOFIA 783


B. 05 SOFIA 1945

C. SOFIA 557


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Two issues dominate Bulgaria's political
scene and calendar: a final verdict on EU accession, framed
by the September 26 European Commission report on Bulgaria's
readiness for membership; and Bulgaria's October 22
Presidential election. Seized by these two overlapping
events, the Bulgarian government and the political class are
subordinating other policy considerations to demonstrating
Bulgaria's international credibility, reliability, and
regional leadership. By hosting the Contact Group, Bulgaria
looks to burnish its credentials with the EU and U.S. (as
well as Russia),and assert itself as a force for regional
security and prosperity, especially for neighboring Serbia
and Macedonia. Your meetings will provide the compass point
for Bulgaria as we help it pursue a policy more forcefully
constructive to U.S. strategic goals. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) Much of the Bulgarian public will look past the
September 11-12 Contact Group meetings to focus instead on
the September 26 European Commission report on Bulgaria's EU
membership. Prospective EU membership has moderated
Bulgaria's view on Kosovo final status. Even more telling
has been the Bulgarians' willingness, in broad measure, to
line up solidly behind us on key foreign policy issues as
they burnish their transatlantic credentials. Bulgaria will
continue to look to us to set the direction and pace on
Kosovo decisions.


3. (SBU) The October 22 Presidential election may complicate
the political calculus. Leftist, pro-U.S. incumbent Georgi
Parvanov has announced his candidacy for re-election and
currently enjoys a comfortable lead in opinion polls. Though
the center-right is divided (perhaps even in disarray),
Parvanov is not taking re-election for granted. Powerful and
charismatic Sofia mayor Borisov lurks as a possible
last-minute candidate, unsettling all election
prognostications. Still, one thing is clear: all candidates
have eyes firmly set on how foreign policy decisions will
play domestically.


4. (C) During recent meetings, President Parvanov and PM
Stanishev have both stated their support for the
Ahtisaari-led process and recognized the inevitability of an
independent Kosovo. Foreign Minister Ivaylo Kalfin (the
formal host of the Contact Group meeting) has also told us
that the positions of the U.S. and Bulgaria on Kosovo are
extremely close. Sensitive to regional politics, Bulgarian
leaders have stressed that Serbia should be offered a
face-saving solution, including possible fast-tracked
membership in NATO and the EU as part of its acceptance of
Kosovo independence. Other, lower-profile Bulgarian
suggestions for potential sweeteners to an eventual
settlement have included infrastructure improvements
(particularly projects that would also benefit Bulgaria).


5. (SBU) Bulgaria has strong bilateral relations with both
Serbia and the Kosovar leadership, contributing to its
reputation as an honest broker in the region. Bulgarian
Minister of Culture Stefan Danailov has facilitated meetings
between his Serbian and Kosovar counterparts, while Bulgaria
has trained Kosovar diplomats at its Diplomatic Academy and
held workshops for Kosovar judges. Bulgarian troops are
currently participating in NATO and EU peacekeeping missions
in Kosovo and Bosnia, as well as in Iraq and Afghanistan.

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6. (C) The Bulgarian government, while not enthusiastic about
an independent Kosovo, is on board. Public opinion, on the
other hand, is more pro-Serb. The government's chief
concerns relate to rule of law in Kosovo and a possible
radicalization of Serbian politics following final status.
It also fears a spillover of any resulting instability into
neighboring Macedonia, which would have a direct impact on
Bulgaria. Following the April signing of a Defense
Cooperation Agreement allowing for the stationing of U.S.
forces in Bulgaria, many in the GOB are eager for a more
intensive strategic dialogue with the U.S. to complement our
enhanced security relationship. They want to be heard (and
to be seen as consulting with the U.S.).


7. (C) To draw the Bulgarians even closer to us, you should
underscore that we value their advice and support --
encourage them publicly and privately to back us and the
Contact Group more forcefully, and to use their influence in

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Belgrade to instill realism about Serbia's future.

BEYRLE