LINE OF BULGARIAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES BEGINS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SOFIA 001080

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL BU
SUBJECT: LINE OF BULGARIAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES BEGINS
TO FORM

REF: A. SOFIA 786

B. SOFIA 968

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1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The October 22 presidential elections
will offer Bulgarian voters the opportunity to pass judgment
on the country,s most influential politician, incumbent
President Georgi Parvanov. With Parvanov's candidacy a
certainty (though still formally unannounced),several other
figures have been identified as possible candidates by the
news media and their own political parties. Socialist
Parvanov currently stands the tallest among them, although
Sofia Mayor Boiko Borisov could easily mount a competitive
campaign at the last moment. Political unknown Nedelcho
Beronov, a Constitutional Court justice, has been identified
by right-wing parties as a candidate they will float jointly,
yet early leaks of his name have yielded yawns from voters.
The National Movement for Simeon II (NMSS) is expected to
launch a candidate untainted by the scandal involving former
King Simeon Saxe Coburg-Gotha -- until recently its presumed
candidate. Volen Siderov, leader of the weakened extreme
right-wing Ataka party, has made no public announcements
about running, but his possible candidacy cannot be
dismissed. If Parvanov wins, he will be the first Bulgarian
president reelected since the fall of communism. END SUMMARY.

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WHY THE BULGARIAN PRESIDENCY -- AND THIS RACE -- MATTERS
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2. (SBU) The Bulgarian presidential elections are the first
solid opportunity since last summer,s general elections to
gauge public attitudes toward the major political parties.
Although the president exercises little formal power, the
position embodies the ideal of national unity and represents
Bulgaria on the international stage. President Parvanov, the
former leader of the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP),exerts
considerable behind-the-scenes influence over the current
government, led by his protege, Sergei Stanishev. Parvanov
played the decisive role in cobbling together the coalition
government, comprised of the BSP, the NMSS, and the mainly
ethnic Turkish Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF). The
opposition parties have not missed an opportunity to
criticize the coalition's handling of a range of issues,
including unfulfilled pre-election pledges of social reform,
the basing agreement with the USG, and an inadequate
humanitarian response in the wake of the 2005 summer floods.


3. (SBU) Recent polling estimates that 55% of registered
voters would turn out if presidential elections were held
today, and that 46.6% of respondents would support Parvanov,
24% Borissov, 5.4% UDF Chair Petar Stoyanov, and 4.7% Ataka
leader Volen Siderov. Even without a specified candidate,
NMSS would garner 2.4% of the vote, ahead of relative unknown
Nedelcho Beronov,s 0.6%. Moreover, this election will be
held at about the same time as the EU's decision on whether
to allow Bulgaria to join the club. An unqualified "yes"
decision could give a boost to the Socialists, who have led
accession efforts; however, a "yes with safeguards" or a "no"
could further bolster the fortunes of opposition candidates.

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PARVANOV'S CANDIDACY -- A SURE THING
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4. (SBU) Although incumbent President Georgi Parvanov has
yet to formally announce that he will run for a second term,
his recent public comments and frequent travel within
Bulgaria suggest that he has already launched an informal
campaign. According to media reports, BSP experts have
advised him not to announce his intentions until the last
possible day in order to minimize his opponents'
opportunities to take potshots at him. Officials within the
party have reportedly announced that he will be nominated in
early September, with current Vice President Angel Marin as
his running mate. An initiative committee headed by Culture
Minister Stefan Danailov will likely sponsor the nomination
in an attempt to win support from a broader left-leaning base
than BSP,s sponsorship alone would afford Parvanov. The
president will likely retain his current base of support )-
voters in villages and large towns, as well as those who are
female, older than 29, and have more than a high school
education.


5. (SBU) When Parvanov took office in January 2002, he left
his post as head of the BSP, but remained one of the most
influential and popular figures with the party. After the
unclear results of last year's parliamentary elections,
Parvanov managed to bridge the positions of the BSP and NMSS
to form an absolute majority, and to convince them that the
MRF -- which had supported him in the previous presidential

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elections -- was also a necessary partner. Viewed as the
"godfather of the government," Parvanov's success or failure
in the elections will reflect the strength of the cabinet he
created. During his term in office, he has taken a moderate
position on a variety of foreign and domestic policy issues,
earning himself the support of 60% of the public. Recent
allegations that Parvanov collaborated with the former
communist State Security agency )- which led him to
acknowledge in June the existence of a secret intelligence
file, coded-named "Gotse" -- have so far (ref A) not weakened
Parvanov's standing. Parvanov has been a consistent voice in
support of a moderate, pro-U.S. foreign policy, especially in
the GWOT, Iraq, and Afghanistan, and with joint basing
facilities here. He sought to tread delicately on these
divisive issues in order to preserve the cohesion of
reformers and hardliners within the BSP. Even so, his
positions have cost him the support of the far-left wing of
the party.

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OTHER CARDS IN THE DECK: THE WASTED TRUMP...
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6. (SBU) The right-wing parties will also seek an
opportunity to regain public support and reverse the losing
streak they have suffered in elections since 2001. A
relative unknown on the playing field is former
Constitutional Court justice Nedelcho Beronov, whose name has
recently been floated by right-wing parties as a possible
candidate. Some dismiss the 78-year*old Beronov as being
too old for the job, but his 40-plus-year career as an
arbitrator at the State Arbitration Court and the Arbitration
Court of the Bulgarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry
provides him a modest buffer from the political mudslinging
that plagues other candidates. Touted as mild-mannered but
firm in his political views, Beronov is sufficiently
distanced from the infighting of the fragmented right-wing
parties. He is expected to be nominated jointly by the Union
of Democratic Forces (UDF),the Democrats for a Strong
Bulgaria (DSB),and smaller right-wing parties. But the
right,s strategy of nominating an unknown candidate may have
already backfired: Beronov is referred to in the press as a
"bita carta" -- a hoped-for trump that turns out to be both
weak and wasted when it is thrown in the game.

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...THE WILD CARD...
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7. (SBU) The most colorful personality so far to consider
throwing his hat into the ring is Sofia Mayor Boiko Borisov
-- a true wild card. The charismatic general ran as an
independent in the 2005 mayoral race, presenting himself as
an alternative to the political status quo. With an
unmatched ability to send the short, clear message that he is
different from the rest of the political class, Borisov
attracted the support of voters from all age groups and
across the political spectrum. He easily won a runoff
election with 68% of the vote, and he continues to enjoy
strong popularity, little diluted by lingering rumors of
shady connections with organized crime figures.


8. (SBU) Although Borisov has repeatedly denied having
presidential aspirations, and in fact seems more fixated on
the bigger prize of the premiership, his impulsiveness means
that his nomination would surprise few. If he did run, he
would likely be nominated as an independent by an initiative
committee, rather than by GERB, the political association he
recently created to test the political waters. Although the
mayor had announced that GERB would be registered as a party
in June, he is likely waiting for the political season to
heat up again in the fall to gain as much momentum as
possible from GERB's official debut. In the election,
Borisov would likely attract voters in Sofia and small towns,
as well as those who are male, younger than 29, and with only
a high school education.

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...AND THE JOKER
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9. (SBU) Bulgaria stands to lose the most from the candidacy
of Volen Siderov, head of the ultra-nationalist Ataka party
and perpetual social agitator. He has yet to make any public
pronouncements either way, but his oversized ego and
eccentricity make his candidacy a possibility. Ataka earned
a surprising 9% of the vote in last year's elections, and
reached a high of 15% at the beginning of 2006. The party's
popularity took a significant nosedive, however, when Siderov
was stripped of his MP immunity in June after trying to
fantasize an April car accident into an assassination

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attempt. Despite being under investigation for alleged
perjury, Siderov may still draw a few votes from those who
supported Parvanov in 2001; his appeal to many disillusioned
voters has not diminished even as he has alienated more
mainstream voters. Although he has lost substantial
credibility in recent months, a weak showing by the
traditional rightist parties, coupled with Ataka,s energized
voter base, could lead to another surprise along the lines of
the 2002 Le Pen-Chirac runoff in France.

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THE KING OF HEARTS WATCHES FROM THE SIDELINES
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10. (SBU) The plummeting popularity of former King Simeon
Saxe Coburg-Gotha in the wake of the Savoy affair (ref B) has
forced the party to abandon him as its presumed presidential
nominee. The party faces an urgent need to establish an
independent identity in a political landscape littered with
fallen heroes. To send a clear message that it is not the
Socialists' obedient lapdog, NMSS has ruled out the option of
joining Parvanov's backers. Although still combing the field
to find a viable alternative to the king, the party is
considering MPs Nikolai Svinarov and Hristina Hristova for
the president and vice president positions. Svinarov is a
lawyer and former Minister of Defense, while Hristova was
elected last year to serve as one of Bulgaria's 18 observers
in the European Parliament. Despite Hristova's recent
assessment that Bulgaria is ready for a female president, no
decision has been made as to whether she will be nominated
for president with Svinarov as her running mate -- or vice
versa.

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CAMPAIGN LOGISTICS
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11. (SBU) At the behest of the BSP and its coalition
partners (minus NMSS),Parliament has scheduled the
presidential elections for October 22 )- the earliest date
allowed by the Constitution -- and must appoint a Central
Election Committee no later than 50 days before election day
to supervise the process. Since at this point only Parvanov
is sure to be a candidate, he stands to benefit the most from
this tight schedule; any candidacies announced from now on
will face the challenge of mounting a public campaign for
support within a short timeframe. Observers have also noted
that the date chosen by Parvanov,s backers comes around the
same time as the final EU monitoring report, due to be
released on September 26. Candidates must register by
September 17, and the campaign begins on September 22 and
ends on October 20. There is no threshold percentage of the
vote that candidates must receive. If none of the candidates
win over 50% of the vote, a runoff election between the two
top vote-getters will be held on October 29. Amendments to
the election law were passed last week by Parliament and are
expected to be formally decreed by the President in the next
few weeks. They will mandate the use of "integral ballot
paper," which lists all candidates on one sheet, transparent
ballot boxes, and a fine of 300 leva (the average Bulgarian's
monthly wage) for anyone caught selling his vote. By law,
the new president and vice president will take the oath of
office on January 23, three days before the incumbents' terms
expire.

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COMMENT
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12. (SBU) In the wake of the king's dramatic fall from
grace, NMSS will be focused more on staying in the game than
winning the race. At this point, a contest between Parvanov
and Borisov would result in a run-off election that few would
be willing to predict the outcome of. Absent Borisov's
participation -- which we would rate as unlikely but not
inconceivable -- Parvanov will likely have enough votes to
win in the first round, assuming that at least 50% of
registered voters show up at the polls to fulfill legal
requirements for an election to be deemed legitimate. A
decisive victory by Parvanov would further stabilize the
center-left coalition and increase Parvanov,s already strong
behind-the-scenes influence over the government. A weak
showing -- or loss -- by Parvanov would have the opposite
effect, accelerating the centrifugal forces within the
government.

Beyrle