MACEDONIA: OPPOSITION SDSM LEADER AXED IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SKOPJE 000980

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/14/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: OPPOSITION SDSM LEADER AXED IN
NO-CONFIDENCE VOTE


Classified By: P/E CHIEF SHUBLER, REASONS 1.4(B) & (D)

SUMMARY


1. (SBU) SDSM President and former Prime Minister Vlado
Buckovski lost an October 7 intra-party confidence vote,
setting the stage for rival Radmila Sekerinska, an SDSM vice
president, to run for the party presidency at the SDSM's
extraordinary congress on November 5. Buckovski was ousted
due to general dissatisfaction among members regarding his
handling of this year's parliamentary elections debacle in
which the party lost heavily. Sekerinska is backed by
President Crvenkovski, who has been engaged in low-intensity
political battles with Buckovski since the latter became
prime minister in late 2004.


2. (C) Likely to take the SDSM helm in November, Sekerinska
probably will play the loyal opposition role in the
parliament while she consolidates her leadership position.
After that she will take a less cooperative, more ideological
approach to dealing with PM Gruevski's government. She is
likely to try to distance herself eventually from Crvenkovski
to demonstrate her independence. We expect Buckovski to
remain inside the SDSM tent while he waits to see which
direction Sekerinska will take the party. End Summary.


SDSM PRESIDENT BUCKOVSKI LOSES CONFIDENCE VOTE


3. (U) Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM) party
president and former prime minister Vlado Buckovski lost a
vote of confidence at the party's October 7 convention.
After the vote, SDSM Vice President and former Deputy Prime
Minister Radmila Sekerinska announced her candidacy for the
presidency, which will be decided at an extraordinary party
congress on November 5. The party congress also will decide
on the composition of key party structures, including the
party vice presidents, and will elect a new secretary general.

SDSM MEMBERS PURGE LEADERSHIP AFTER PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS
DEBACLE


4. (C) Party insiders had expected Buckovski to fall given
widespread discontent in the SDSM over the former prime
minister's handling of the 2006 parliamentary elections,
which the SDSM-led coalition lost by a wide margin. Some of
the anger was directed at Buckovski's pre-election deal with
junior coalition partner LDP that eventually gave them five
seats in parliament out of the 32 won by the SDSM-led
coalition, despite LDP's nearly zero popularity ratings in
polls taken before the elections. Buckovski also was
suspected of being complicit in, or at least tolerant of,
corruption that reportedly enriched a close circle of his
associates. At the same time, there was widespread feeling
among the SDSM rank-and-file that the Buckovski government
had neglected the pressing needs of their constituencies.

THE PRESIDENT AS POWER BROKER


5. (SBU) Sekerinska, who is expected to be the sole SDSM
presidential candidate, is closely backed by President
Crvenkovski (a former SDSM party president). During the
parliamentary election campaign, and in the weeks leading up
to the SDSM convention, it was clear that Crvenkovski was
maneuvering to weaken Buckovski to prepare the way for an
eventual Sekerinska victory.


6. (SBU) Crvenkovski and Buckovski had been trading verbal
blows for the past year, with a brief "truce" only in the
immediate lead-up to the parliamentary elections. Just
before the October 7 SDSM convention, some local media ran a
string of stories, allegedly planted by government officials
with Buckovski's support, inaccurately portraying Sekerinska
as having misused foreign aid funds during her tenure as
Deputy Prime Minister for Euro-Integration. (NOTE: Although
Sekerinska was in charge of donor aid coordination in her
Deputy PM role, aid money did not flow through her office.
Nor have there been complaints from us or other international
donors regarding either misappropriation of assistance funds
or Sekerinska's handling of donor coordination affairs. END
NOTE.)

SKOPJE 00000980 002 OF 002




7. (SBU) The apparent rationale for the VMRO-DPMNE-led
government's collaboration with Buckovski in attacking
Sekerinska was to keep Buckovski in control of the party in
exchange for his support for a draft police law. The SDSM
was split on whether to support government compromise
proposals on the draft law, and was betting that Buckovski
could deliver the SDSM votes if he managed to outmuscle
Sekerinska.

WILL SEKERINSKA PLAY THE ROLE OF LOYAL OPPOSITION?


8. (C) With Sekerinska likely to win the SDSM's November
leadership contest easily, we expect she initially will play
the loyal opposition in the parliament while she consolidates
party support. She told us October 12 that she intends to
back the GOM's draft law on wiretapping, for example, which
requires a 2/3 parliamentary vote.


9. (C) As she secures her leadership position, however, we
expect Sekerinska to step up attacks on the government and to
show Social Democratic grassroots supporters she can lead an
SDSM with a stronger ideological core than was the case for
the more pragmatic Buckovski. At the same time, she will try
to distance herself from Crvenkovski to avoid accusations
that she is merely his pawn.

WOOING THE NEW SOCIAL DEMOCRATS?


10. (C) Sekerinska also will test the waters with the New
Social Democratic Party (NSDP -- 7 MP seats) of former SDSM
member Tito Petkovski. Petkovski never hid his dislike for
Buckovski, and there is widespread speculation that NSDP --
currently a member of the governing coalition -- could leave
the shaky right-of-center VMRO-DPMNE-led government to join
forces with Sekerinska if PM Gruevski continues his recent
missteps on legislative issues.

WHITHER BUCKO?


11. (C) Another question among the local politerati is
whether Buckovski will abandon SDSM and start his own party,
or whether he will remain in the party and build his own
faction, although he has said he will do neither. Since he
reportedly can only count on six of 32 SDSM coalition MPs for
support at present, Buckovski likely will decide to remain
within the SDSM tent until it is apparent in which direction
Sekerinska will choose to take the party.
MILOVANOVIC