Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06SKOPJE696
2006-07-20 15:41:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Skopje
Cable title:  

MACEDONIA: PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION RE-RUN OUTCOME

Tags:  PGOV MK 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO6532
PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHSQ #0696/01 2011541
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 201541Z JUL 06
FM AMEMBASSY SKOPJE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4957
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/CDR TF FALCON
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEHSQ/USDAO SKOPJE MK
RUEHPS/USOFFICE PRISTINA 4117
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SKOPJE 000696 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/21/2016
TAGS: PGOV MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION RE-RUN OUTCOME
STRENGTHENS VMRO-DPMNE ADVANTAGE

REF: SKOPJE 669 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: P/E CHIEF SHUBLER, REASONS 1.4(B) & (D).

SUMMARY.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SKOPJE 000696

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/21/2016
TAGS: PGOV MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION RE-RUN OUTCOME
STRENGTHENS VMRO-DPMNE ADVANTAGE

REF: SKOPJE 669 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: P/E CHIEF SHUBLER, REASONS 1.4(B) & (D).

SUMMARY.


1. (SBU) Parliamentary election re-runs in 29 polling
stations (representing less than one percent of Macedonia's
3,000 polling stations) generally were well conducted,
although international monitors noted some serious
irregularities in some stations. The voting gave one
additional MP seat to right-of-center VMRO-DPMNE, while
eAlbanian DUI of the outgoing governing coalition lost a
seat. That result raises the likelihood of a VMRO-DPMNE-led
coalition government with a solid majority, while making it
more likely that DUI will be left out of a future government.


2. (C) The Charge encouraged DUI to play a constructive role
as an opposition party, and to avoid making statements
suggesting destabilizing consequences for Macedonia if the
party is not included in a future government coalition.
Nevertheless, DUI leaders insist that the eAlbanian
population will be angered if DUI is not included in the
coalition. It is unlikely VMRO-DPMNE will do so, since party
president Gruevski then would risk alienating his political
support base for having "caved in" to DUI's threatening
statements. End Summary.

JULY 19 ELECTION RE-RUNS - GENERALLY CALM, SOME SERIOUS
IRREGULARITIES


3. (SBU) A little more than a week after Macedonia's July 5
parliamentary elections (reftel),the Supreme Court accepted
a number of election appeals from the main contending parties
(VMRO-DPMNE, DPA, and DUI),resulting in re-runs in 29
polling stations in three of the country's six electoral
districts on July 19. The Supreme Court decision came after
the State Election Commission (SEC) summarily dismissed the
appeals without examining the evidence the parties had
presented. Up to five MP seats, out of 120 seats total in
the unicameral parliament, were at stake.


4. (U) The international community (IC -- US Embassy, NATO,
EU, OSCE, French and Norwegian Embassies) provided 20 teams,
including two Embassy teams, to monitor the elections. The
local NGO MOST also provided monitors in each of the 29
polling stations, which represented just under one percent of

the more than 3,000 polling stations in the country. Police
presence at many of the stations was strong.


5. (U) On July 20, IC representatives met and agreed that the
voting was well conducted in most stations. They noted,
however, that monitors had observed serious irregularities --
such as ballot-stuffing, proxy and family voting, multiple
voting, inter-party tensions, and intimidation of domestic
and international observers -- in other stations.


6. (U) One polling station was closed during the day to avoid
potential clashes between ethnic Albanian rival parties DUI
and DPA. The State Election Commission (SEC) may call for
re-voting at that station if it is clear that voting there
could have affected the final outcome in that electoral
district.

VMRO-DPMNE-LED COALITION WINS A SEAT, DUI LOSES ONE


7. (SBU) Voter turnout was low, at 43 percent. Initial SEC
results showed a net gain of one MP seat for right-of-center
VMRO-DPMNE (now with 45 seats),which won the July 5
election, and a loss of one seat for eAlbanian DUI (17
seats),a junior coalition member in the outgoing SDSM-led
government. If that result is confirmed, the coalition
VMRO-DPMNE President Gruevski is cobbling together (reftel)
likely will hold 65 seats (including 11 DPA seats, 7 from
NSDP, and one each from DOM and PEI).


8. (SBU) With eAlbanian PDP (3 seats) indicating it may leave
its DUI coalition partner to join Gruevski, and with the
ethnic Turk (2 seats) and Serb (1 seat) parties expected to
abandon the SDSM-led coalition to do the same, Gruevski could
conceivably end up with a 71-seat majority. That would fall
short of the 2/3 majority he had aimed for when he was

SKOPJE 00000696 002 OF 002


courting DUI just after the July 5 balloting, but it would
provide a solid base from which to pursue an ambitious reform
agenda.

CHARGE ENCOURAGES DUI TO PLAY CONSTRUCTIVE OPPOSITION ROLE


9. (C) Throughout the July 19 polling, IC representatives
received messages from DUI officials warning that failure to
include DUI in a future government could lead to eAlbanian
discontent. That discontent might be manifested, they said,
through demonstrations, rioting, and more extreme measures to
express anger over Gruevski's perceived refusal to recognize
DUI as the legitimate representative of eAlbanian citizens in
Macedonia. DUI Deputy PM Xhaferi and party leader Ali Ahmeti
made similar statements in the local press.


10. (C) Charge phoned Ahmeti and Xhaferi July 20 to caution
them against making such statements. Warning that it was
unacceptable for any party to threaten destabilization in the
event its political demands were not met, he encouraged the
DUI leaders to strive for a constructive role as an
opposition party if Gruevski decided against including them
in a future government.


11. (C) Ahmeti insisted that many eAlbanians were "outraged"
at the outcome of the elections. They felt they no longer
were able to shape the fate of Macedonia. He argued that
ethnic Albanian citizens had voted against DPA in previous
elections because of that party's links to corruption and
prostitution. As a result, including DPA in a future
government while excluding DUI would be seen as thwarting the
will of the eAlbanian population, in his view.

GRUEVSKI DISCUSSES NEXT STEPS


12. (C) DCM met with Gruevski July 20 to discuss next steps
in the coalition-building process. Gruevski said he was
still counting on a 65-seat coalition, and was negotiating
with the Serbs and Turks, and indirectly with PDP, to boost
that number. Those parties' demands were higher than their
electoral strength warranted, however, and it was possible he
would not include them in the government.


13. (C) The chances of DUI joining the government had been
slim, Gruevski said, and their threatening statements now
made it even more unlikely that he could bring them into the
government since he would then appear to be bowing to
blackmail. DCM encouraged Gruevski to maintain a
constructive relationship with DUI, whatever he decided about
the coalition. Gruevski agreed and said he wanted to
maintain a positive relationship with Ahmeti's party.


14. (C) Gruevski said he wanted to finish "80 percent" of the
coalition-building process by July 26, when he expected to
receive the mandate from President Crvenkovski following the
first constitutive session of the new parliament. Ten days
after that, he hoped to have the parliamentary vote on his
government and governing program.

COMMENT


15. (C) Overall, the general lack of serious incidents or
violence at the polling stations was a welcome sign, despite
the numerous reported instances of procedural and other
serious irregularities. The fact that the Supreme Court
carefully examined the parties' appeals and then ordered the
re-runs also was a positive development. With Gruevski
nearly assured of a solid majority, it is less likely that
DUI would be invited to join a governing coalition. As
Gruevski noted, including DUI in the government at this stage
would look to the public and the VMRO-DPMNE rank-and-file as
if he had caved in to DUI's threatening statements.
MILOVANOVIC