MACEDONIA: PRESIDENT'S ANALYSIS OF PARLIAMENTARY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SKOPJE 000649

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/08/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: PRESIDENT'S ANALYSIS OF PARLIAMENTARY
ELECTION OUTCOME

REF: SKOPJE 640 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: P/E CHIEF SHUBLER, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).

SUMMARY.


1. (C) In a meeting with the Ambassador July 6, President
Crvenkovski characterized the recent parliamentary election
process as "good," and asked for continued support from the
Ambassador during the process of the formation of the new
government. Analyzing electoral results, Crvenkovski said
citizens desiring a change in Macedonia had bet on the party
with the best chances of winning -- VMRO-DPMNE. The victory
of eAlbanian DUI over rival DPA signaled the desire of the
eAlbanian electorate to opt for a future as citizens of
Macedonians, an encouraging outcome. Crvenkovski said it
would be important to include an eAlbanian party in the next
government, preferably DUI, to demonstrate respect for the
will of the eAlbanian electorate. It also would be important
to exclude the nationalist VMRO-Narodna party, since their
participation would undermine the next government's reform
program and efforts to combat organized crime and corruption.



2. (C) Crvenkovski appeared to be probing our thinking on
which coalition combinations might meet with USG approval.
Our position is that we can support and work with any
coalition that is the result of procedures outlined in the
constitution and parliamentary rule book, but that any future
government should exclude as cabinet ministers or other
ranking representatives anyone who came to power through
intimidation or electoral malfeasance.

GOOD ELECTORAL PROCESS OVERALL


3. (U) The Ambassador met with President Crvenkovski, at the
latter's request, July 6 to discuss next steps after the July
5 parliamentary elections. Crvenkovski's Chief of Staff
Natasa Savova attended. DCM and P/E Chief (notetaker)
accompanied the Ambassador.


4. (SBU) Crvenkovski said that, barring a handful of
incidents during the campaign, the electoral process overall
had been good. There had been some small irregularities,
Crvenkovski said, but he was generally satisfied with
developments on July 5. Especially noteworthy, he added, was
the "lack of turbulence" following the closing of the polls
at 7 pm, and the acceptance by most parties of the outcome as
the product of a free and fair process.


5. (SBU) Crvenkovski added that the telephone call from Prime
Minister Buckovski to VMRO-DPMNE leader Gruevski
congratulating the latter on his electoral victory, and the
lack of triumphalism evident in Gruevski's modest victory
celebration that evening, also were positive developments
(reftel). He said he hoped the same atmosphere would prevail
during the negotiations on a coalition to succeed the present
government. The President asked the Ambassador for her
continued support and good offices to help ensure that
process continued in a constructive fashion.

IMPORTANCE OF OSCE/ODIHR, BRUSSELS, AND WASHINGTON ASSESSMENTS


6. (C) Crvenkovski said the OSCE/ODIHR assessment of the
conduct of the elections would be important, but noted that
evaluations in Brussels and Washington would be of even
greater import for Macedonia's EU and NATO membership
aspirations. A negative assessment would, he said, be a
great disappointment to the citizens of Macedonia, who
believed the elections had been conducted in a calm, positive
manner. (NOTE: ODIHR's preliminary assessment, released the
afternoon of July 6, characterized the elections as having
"largely met international standards." Both the USG and EU
statements on the elections, also released July 6, described
them as successful and a victory for the citizens of
Macedonia. END NOTE.)


7. (SBU) The Ambassador noted USG satisfaction with the
conduct of the lectoral process. Compared to past elections,
there had been far fewer allegations of violence and
attempted intimidation. The police had been effective in
serving as a deterrent at polling stations, but without

SKOPJE 00000649 002 OF 002


interfering in the electoral process. The political parties
had, for the most part, behaved maturely. Overall, the US
Embassy shared the international community's (IC) positive
evaluation of the elections and would, in its assessment,
situate the isolated problems or incidents in the overall
context of a mainly positive election day.

CRVENKOVSKI'S ANALYSIS OF THE RESULTS: RATIONAL VOTING


8. (C) Pointing to opposition VMRO-DPMNE's clear victory
(reftel),Crvenkovski said the results demonstrated the
"average Macedonian's rationality." Citizens who wanted a
change in government had voted for the party most likely to
win. That was why many smaller parties that had competed had
failed to enter the parliament, a development Crvenkovski
welcomed.


9. (C) Even more significant than VMRO-DPMNE's victory over
the SDSM (Crvenkovski's party),however, was the significant
DUI win (18 seats) vis-a-vis DPA (11 seats). The outcome had
been somewhat less than DUI leader Ahmeti had anticipated,
according to Crvenkovski, but it nevertheless constituted a
convincing victory. The Ambassador commented that the
significant DUI margin over DPA also represented an eAlbanian
vote in favor of a future as citizens of Macedonia, as
opposed to the more separatist vision of DPA.

BUILDING THE NEXT GOVERNMENT -- NEED TO INCLUDE ETHNIC
ALBANIAN PARTY...


10. (C) Noting that this was VMRO-DPMNE leader Gruevski's
first experience with forming a coalition government,
Crvenkovski said he hoped the next government would include
an eAlbanian party. He believed Gruevski should offer a
place in the coalition to DUI, since that would demonstrate
respect for the will of the eAlbanian citizens of Macedonia
who had voted in far larger numbers for DUI than for DPA.
Courting DPA, on the other hand, would signal a rejection of
the popular will of eAlbanians here. Adding that there was
no obligation to include DUI, or indeed any eAlbanian party,
in a coalition, he said failure to do so would be a "mistake
politically."

...AND EXCLUDE NATIONALIST VMRO-NARODNA PARTY HEADED BY
FORMER PRIME MINISTER


11. (C) If Gruevski needed a third party to comprise a
coalition (VMRO-DPMNE and DUI together would give the
government 62 seats, enough to form a government, but by a
margin of only two seats in the 120-seat unicameral
parliament),Crvenkovski said he hoped Gruevski would not/not
invite VMRO-Narodna (a nationalist VMRO breakaway party
headed by former PM Georgievski) to join. Georgievski's
campaign had been characterized by an anti-reform stance,
including opposition to the Framework Agreement, Kosovo
independence, and the IMF and World Bank. As a minor party,
VMRO-Narodna could not, on its own, shift GOM policy on those
issues, but it could work to undermine it. Including
Georgievski also would undercut future GOM efforts to combat
organized crime and corruption, he said. The President
concluded by saying that the process of building a new
government likely would produce a "long, hot summer."

COMMENT


12. (C) Crvenkovski appeared indirectly to be sounding us out
on possible coalition arrangements, the subject of intensive
media speculation since the results of the elections were
announced July 6. He obviously favors a VMRO-DPMNE/DUI
coalition, perhaps with minority support from NSDP (SDSM
breakaway party) and its seven seats or another smaller
party. Although such a coalition combination would make
political sense, the position we are taking regarding likely
coalition outcomes is that we can support any coalition that
is the result of the procedures outlined in the constitution
and the parliamentary rule book, but that any government
should exclude ministers or other ranking officials who came
to power through intimidation or malfeasance. End Comment.
MILOVANOVIC