MACEDONIA: CAMPAIGN CALM EXTENDS THROUGH THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SKOPJE 000631

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/04/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: CAMPAIGN CALM EXTENDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND

REF: SKOPJE 625

Classified By: P/E CHIEF SHUBLER, REASONS 1.4(B) AND (D).

SUMMARY.


1. (C) Continuing a recent campaign-period trend (reftel),
the July 1-2 weekend remained calm in Macedonia with only two
minor campaign-related incidents reported (neither of which
was substantiated.) The MOI took action against perpetrators
of campaign-related incidents, and eAlbanian parties DUI and
DPA (with EU, OSCE, and US Embassy/ICITAP support)
coordinated on security issues related to their separate
rallies July 3 in Tetovo. In separate phone calls to the DUI
and DPA leaders, the Ambassador noted the positive turn of
events, urged further security coordination between the two,
and called for continued restraint on the part of their
supporters.


2. (C) President Crvenkovski outlined concerns regarding
opposition plans for a "premature victory" rally in downtown
Skopje on election night, a concern the Ambassador raised
with VMRO-DPMNE leader Gruevski on June 29. Gruevski told
the Ambassador he expects his coalition will win 12-15 more
MP seats than the rival governing SDSM-headed coalition.
Intense media coverage of the handful of campaign-related
incidents, a few of them violent, has created a skewed image
of a campaign as seriously marred by violent incidents. In
fact, the overall number of incidents has been small and
geographically limited, with only a few incidents resulting
in injuries to persons. End Summary.

CAMPAIGN CALM CONTINUES OVER WEEKEND


3. (U) Following a week of campaign calm during which no new
campaign-related incidents were reported in Macedonia
(reftel),the July 1-2 weekend in Macedonia remained
generally calm. There were only two unsubstantiated
allegations, both by opposition VMRO-DPMNE, of
campaign-related incidents. In one, VMRO-DPMNE claimed
several activists were attacked by supporters of the
governing SDSM; in the second, the party claimed that one of
its local HQs in downtown Skopje was vandalized by unknown
perpetrators.

MINISTRY OF INTERIOR TAKING ACTION AGAINST PERPETRATORS OF
CAMPAIGN-RELATED INCIDENTS


4. (SBU) The Macedonian police continued to investigate and
charge suspects in earlier cases of campaign-related
incidents. By the weekend, they had forwarded criminal
charges against 14 individuals, and misdemeanor charges
against 13 persons. MOI sources told us they expected to
bring misdemeanor charges against another 10 or 12
individuals for campaign-related incidents before the July 5
Election Day.

E-ALBANIAN PARTIES COORDINATE ON SECURITY FOR JULY 3 RALLY IN
TETOVO


5. (SBU) Following a planning meeting between the Tetovo
police chief and international community (IC - EUMM, OSCE,
DOJ-ICITAP) police advisers on June 30 (reftel),the
Secretaries General of ethnic Albanian DUI (governing

SIPDIS
coalition partner) and DPA (opposition) met with the police
chief to coordinate logistics and planning for the July 3
evening rallies both parties will hold in Tetovo.


6. (SBU) As agreed at the June 30 meeting, the DUI and DPA
officials held a press conference in Tetovo on July 2,
together with the Tetovo police chief, in which they
underscored their commitment to coordinating and
deconflicting the two rallies to lower chances that
supporters from either side would clash with groups from the
other. On July 3, the IC police advisers again met with the

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Tetovo police chief to review contingency planning for the
two events, after which the DUI and DPA General Secretaries
were expected to meet with the chief of police a final time
for last-minute coordination.

AMBASSADOR CALLS DUI AND DPA LEADERS, URGES CONTINUED
RESTRAINT


7. (C) The Ambassador called DUI leader Ahmeti and DPA leader
Xhaferi July 3 to note the recent positive turn of events,
including the July 2 joint DUI-DPA press conference, and to
urge them to continue to coordinate on security matters up
until and after Election Day. She told Ahmeti, however, that
a recent appearance by former UCK commander Samedin Zhezair
(aka the Hoxha of Prizren, Kosovo) on local TV calling on DUI
supporters to rise up and support Ahmeti, and a statement by
one of Ahmeti's lieutenants offering to go toe-to-toe with
DPA supporters over a recent violent incident (reftel),had
been damaging and counterproductive. She asked Ahmeti to
direct his supporters to tone down their public comments.
The Ambassador also advised both leaders to consider
confining their known troublemakers to party HQs on Election
Day to further reduce the likelihood of clashes.

PRESIDENT: CONCERNS ABOUT OPPOSITION'S RUMORED PLAN FOR
"PREMATURE" VICTORY RALLY ON E-DAY


8. (C) In a meeting with the Ambassador June 29, President
Crvenkovski said he believed recent IC actions (reftel) had
helped prevent further campaign-related incidents. He
expressed concern, however, about a rumored rally VMRO-DPMNE
planned to hold on Skopje's city square the evening of July 5
to "celebrate" their victory before the official results were
announced. He also was concerned about the eAlbanian
tradition of firing shots into the air to celebrate victories
or protest results prior to the release of the official
voting figures. The ideal, he said, would be to avoid
rallies or demonstrations for 24 hours after the election
polls closed, or until the official results were announced.
(NOTE: An adviser in Prime Minister Buckovski's office also
raised with us on June 30 concerns that VMRO-DPMNE might try
to hold a Ukrainian-style "orange revolution" rally on July 5
if the results show anything other than a VMRO-DPMNE victory.
The Ambassador told VMRO-DPMNE leader Gruevski during her
June 29 meeting with him (see below) that it would be best to
wait until the official results are known before celebrating.
END NOTE.)

OPPOSITION VMRO-DPMNE LEADER GRUEVSKI CALM AND COLLECTED


9. (C) In a meeting with the Ambassador June 29, opposition
VMRO-DPMNE leader Gruevski told the Ambassador he would
accept the election outcome if there were "no strong
irregularities" that would change the final election results.
He was concerned, however, that SDSM was rumored to be
recruiting "muscle" for some undefined purpose, presumably to
carry out acts of provocation or intimidation on Election
Day. Gruevski acknowledged that campaigning on both sides
had gotten "tougher" in recent days, with more personal
attack ads. He hoped to return to more substantive campaign
themes before the end of the campaign (midnight on July 3).


10. (C) Gruevski estimated his coalition would win 12-15 more
MPs than SDSM's coalition, and that turnout would be
somewhere between 65 and 70 percent. He did not rule out a
coalition with either DPA or DUI, and also said his party had
"good relations" with SDSM breakaway NSDP and with the DOM
party, a splinter group of the Liberal Democrats. It would
be harder to include rival VMRO-Narodna, headed by former PM
Georgievski. Gruevski also noted that VMRO-DPMNE had
coordinated with SDSM concerning rally times and locations,
and that there had been only a single serious incident
(campaign-related, but not connected to any rally) between
supporters of the two parties during the 3-week campaign.


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COMMENT


11. (C) Intense local media focus on a handful of serious
campaign incidents, some of them violent, has presented a
skewed picture of a badly marred campaign. In fact,
documented incidents were localized and few in number,
occurring in three of Macedonia's 84 municipalities and
involving violence that resulted in injuries in only 3 or 4
cases. To date, DUI has held over 350 major and minor
campaign events, DPA over 150 major events, VMRO-DPMNE 97
major events, and SDSM 135 or more events; with a few rare
exceptions, all of these 700 events have taken place without
incident.
MILOVANOVIC