MACEDONIA: ELECTION CAMPAIGN CALMS; AMBASSADOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SKOPJE 000625

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/30/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: ELECTION CAMPAIGN CALMS; AMBASSADOR
COUNSELS CONTINUED RESTRAINT

REF: A. SKOPJE 613

B. SKOPJE 596

C. SKOPJE 594

Classified By: P/E CHIEF SHUBLER, REASONS 1.4(B) & (D)

SUMMARY


1. (C) An unspoken agreement to cool things down has taken
hold in Macedonia after a handful of campaign-related
incidents, some of them violent and most of them between
competing ethnic Albania parties DUI and DPA, occurred at the
beginning of the official parliamentary elections campaign on
June 15. The Ambassador and International Community (IC)
colleagues visited the site of one of the incidents to
denounce the violence and to call on political leaders to
restrain their supporters. In meetings with DUI and DPA
leaders on June 28, she counseled continued restraint and
suggested confidence-building measures to avert future
incidents.


2. (C) The latest poll shows an increase in undecided voters,
and opposition VMRO-DPMNE leading governing SDSM by a solid
margin. The current lull is a good sign. The high stakes
involved, however, make it likely that neither DUI nor DPA
has ruled out a resort to more extreme methods if that is
what it takes to win. End Summary.

CAMPAIGN LULL HOLDS


3. (SBU) Following a spate of parliamentary election
campaign-related incidents, including a clash between
competing eAlbanian parties that included a brief exchange of
fire in an area west of Skopje the weekend of June 24-25 (ref
A),an unspoken agreement to lower temperatures appears to
have taken hold between eAlbanian parties beginning late the
evening of June 24. Although opposition eAlbanian party DPA
has complained of some minor harassment from DUI (eAlbanian
governing coalition junior partner) supporters at campaign
events, general calm has prevailed during the week of June

26.

RASCE VISITS GARNERS NATIONWIDE MEDIA COVERAGE


4. (SBU) On June 27, the Ambassador, EU Special
Representative, OSCE Head of Mission, and UK Ambassador (as
NATO Contact Embassy Representative) visited the rural
village of Rasce, west of Skopje, where the June 24 incident
occurred. The Ambassador and her IC colleagues each made
statements before the media condemning the campaign-related
violence and calling on political leaders to restrain their
supporters and ensure there were no further incidents. They
also expressed cautious optimism that the lull since June 24
was a positive indication that the situation would remain
calm through the July 5 election day, and reiterated IC
support for legitimate police actions to investigate and
prevent further incidents. The statements received wide and
favorable coverage in the Albanian and Macedonian language
electronic and print media.

AMBASSADOR COUNSELS CONTINUED RESTRAINT


5. (C) In separate follow-up meetings with DUI leader Ali
Ahmeti and DPA leader Arben Xhaferi in Tetovo June 28, the
Ambassador reiterated her June 20 call on both parties to
exercise leadership by instructing their supporters to
exercise restraint in responding to possible provocations
(ref C). At the same time, she expressed satisfaction at the
lack of new incidents since June 24. She also floated with
both leaders the idea of establishing regular, direct
communication between the secretaries general of both parties
(ref A) to better coordinate campaign events to avoid the
potential for direct confrontations between supporters.

DPA SEES CRUX OF THE PROBLEM IN POLICE/UBK CONNECTIONS WITH
DUI


6. (C) Xhaferi and DPA VP Menduh Thaci argued that the

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problem was not a lack of communication with DUI, but rather
the alleged role of the police and Macedonian
counter-intelligence agency (DBK) in provoking the incidents
and directly supporting DUI activists. Thaci added that DUI
was also using Ibrahim Kelmendi, allegedly a
"Marxist-Leninist" Kosovar Albanian criminal, and K-Albanian
criminal fugitive Emrush Suma (with police support) to
intimidate DPA supporters.


7. (C) Xhaferi said the "mentality of ethnic Albanian
political leaders is to test the morality, and the courage,
of their political opponents," suggesting that was DUI's
tactical goal. Thaci said that the governing SDSM was
concerned that if DUI did not win enough seats to enter a
ruling coalition, it would resort to violence to destabilize
Macedonia. Even opposition VMRO-DPMNE, according to Thaci,
believed that if DUI were not included in a future
government, Ahmeti's party would try to destabilize the
country.


8. (C) The Ambassador countered that other analysts believed
DPA itself was resorting to violence during the campaign to
demonstrate its ability to be a destabilizing force if it did
not receive a post-election invitation to join a future
government. That was the wrong tactic to pursue, she said.
DPA needed to persuade domestic and international observers
that it was not pursuing such tactics.




DUI SEES MAIN CHALLENGE ON ELECTION DAY


9. (C) DUI's Ahmeti said he expected the bulk of problems to
surface on Election Day, July 5. He had been spending more
time trying to restrain his supporters, he said, than
actually campaigning. In most parts of western and
northwestern Macedonia the situation was calm, and likely to
remain so, but he anticipated DPA provocations in the
DPA-controlled municipality of Saraj and in the village of
Tearce, also under DPA control. Citizens wanted the state to
provide greater security on Election Day to ensure DPA did
not employ ballot stuffing tactics, Ahmeti said. Political
leaders had to take more responsibility for the actions of
their followers or, failing that, resign.


10. (C) Countering DPA's accusations regarding Ibrahim
Kelmendi (para 6 above),Ahmeti said the Kosovar was simply a
news correspondent who was harmless. He also denied that DUI
figures were trying to intimidate DPA followers. Instead, he
said, suspected war criminal and DPA candidate Daut Rexhepi
(aka Commander Leka) was creating fear among the citizens of
Tearce, Slatino, and other small villages north of Tetovo.


DUI BELIEVES KOSOVAR ALBANIAN ASSISTANCE NOT NEEDED


11. (C) Responding to the Ambassador's encouragement not to
accept outside help for the campaign or Election Day from
Kosovar Albanians, Ahmeti reiterated his long-standing
position that he did not need external assistance. Instead,
he would ask the GOM for more active police presence at
polling stations, especially in Saraj and Tearce. His
supporters would provide full cooperation with the police in
preventing or investigating incidents.

DUI READY TO COOPERATE WITH DPA TO AVERT FURTHER INCIDENTS


12. (C) Vowing he would take responsibility for preventing
future incidents, Ahmeti said he was ready to enter into
dialogue with DPA, but did not know whom to turn to as an
interlocutor on that side. He accepted the Ambassador's
suggestion that the IC (EUMM, OSCE, US Embassy ICITAP) work
with the Tetovo police chief to plan ways to deconflict the
major DUI and DPA rallies scheduled for the same day, July 3,
in Tetovo. The DUI and DPA secretaries general could then
coordinate between themselves and the Tetovo police chief to
discuss steps to avert incidents on July 3. (NOTE: That

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process already is underway, with the Tetovo police chief
today having met with IC reps to discuss preventive measures,
and the DUI and DPA secretaries general scheduled to meet
later today with the police chief to coordinate further. END
NOTE.)

LATEST POLL SHOWS INCREASE IN UNDECIDED VOTERS, OPPOSITION
LEADS


13. (U) A June 24 poll by a local NGO shows that the number
of undecided voters has risen to over 42 percent, up from 37
percent in the previous poll. Most analysts believe the
number has gone up due to the violent incidents that marred
the official campaign start. Of the respondents, 17.3% would
vote for VMRO-DPMNE; 12.8% for SDSM; 9.6% for DUI; 5.8% for
DPA; 5.4% for SDSM breakaway party NSDP; and 2.6% for
VMRO-NP. VMRO-DPMNE's Nikola Gruevski remains the most
popular politician, with 17.6% support, followed by DUI's
Ahmeti (10.3%),and DPA's Xhaferi (7%). More than 26% of
respondents said they did not trust any politician, a telling
figure.

COMMENT


14. (C) Whether the lull in campaign incidents signals the
quiet before the storm or will last through Election Day and
afterward is difficult to tell. DUI, and to a lesser extent
DPA, seem to have grasped that violent action has only
limited effectiveness if the other side is ready and able to
respond, and that it entails significant cost in terms of
international community reaction (reftels). That said, the
high stakes involved (participation in government here
remains an easy way to dole out jobs in an economy with an
official unemployment rate of over 37%) will make it tempting
for both sides to revert to extreme means if they believe
that is necessary to win on July 5.
MILOVANOVIC