MACEDONIA: WITH US-EU PRODDING, ETHNIC ALBANIAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SKOPJE 000594

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/SCE, USOP PRISTINA FOR COM GOLDBERG

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/21/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: WITH US-EU PRODDING, ETHNIC ALBANIAN
PARTY LEADERS CALL FOR AN END TO VIOLENT CAMPAIGN INCIDENTS

REF: SKOPJE 420 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: P/E CHIEF SHUBLER, REASONS 1.5(B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY. The Ambassador and EU Special Representative
(EUSR) Fouere convoked the leaders of ethnic Albanian parties
DUI and DPA for a meeting June 20 to express grave concerns
over recent violent incidents related to the campaign for
upcoming parliamentary elections July 5. They noted that the
incidents, for which each party has blamed the other, have
damaged the images of both parties, and of Macedonia, and
called for an immediate end to them. If the incidents
continued, they warned, serious consequences would follow for
the parties, and for party leaders. After attempts by DPA to
deflect blame for the incidents, both leaders agreed to make
a joint statement to the media (which they did immediately
after the meeting) calling on followers to refrain from
further violent acts, and reiterating calls for free and fair
elections. The statement received positive coverage in the
local media and is a welcome first step in halting the
escalation of violence. A more important second step,
however, will require both parties to ensure supporters
desist from provocative or violent acts. We and our EU,
NATO, and OSCE partners will be watching closely for the
follow through. END SUMMARY.

VIOLENT CAMPAIGN-RELATED INCIDENTS


2. (SBU) The Ambassador and EUSR Fouere convened a joint
meeting of the leaders of rival ethnic Albanian parties DUI
(governing coalition partner) and DPA (main eAlbanian
opposition party) at the Embassy on June 20, following a
series of violent incidents the previous week, allegedly
caused by DUI and DPA supporters, that targeted local party
campaign headquarters (septel). The incidents marred the
kickoff of the official campaign season in the runup to
parliamentary elections July 5, and threatened to escalate
beyond the capacity of either party to control them. DUI
President Ali Ahmeti and VP Teuta Arifi attended, as did DPA
President Arben Xhaferi and VP Menduh Thaci. Ambassador was
joined by DCM and P/E Chief (notetaker); EUSR POLAD Von Konig
accompanied EUSR Fouere. NATO HQs Skopje Commander BG
Durance and POLAD attended as observers. OSCE HOM Pais was
out of town, but previously had agreed to support the joint
US-EU demarche.

INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY'S CONCERNS


3. (C) The Ambassador outlined the international community's
(IC) serious concerns about the violent incidents, noting
that they reflected poorly on both parties and, undeservedly,
on the wider eAlbanian community in Macedonia. The
incidents, which included a June 18 shootout between rival
gangs affiliated with both parties in the Skopje suburb of
Saraj, demonstrated a failure of leadership and a lack of
democratic maturity. They had to end now. The heated
political rhetoric that helped fuel the incidents also had to
cease.

SERIOUS CONSEQUENCES IF INCIDENTS CONTINUE


4. (C) If the parties did not take concrete steps to end the
incidents immediately, the Ambassador continued, there would
be serious consequences for the DUI and DPA leadership. The
IC would ask the State Electoral Commission to rerun
elections in areas where DPA and/or DUI violence and
intimidation had prevented a free and fair vote, and would
fully support the police in all legitimate actions to protect
persons and property.


5. (C) The IC Principals also were prepared to visit the
sites of campaign-related violent incidents and to publicly
denounce the involvement of the parties in such acts or
provocations. In addition, we would limit our contacts with
individuals and the parties known to have encouraged or
committed violent acts, and would update our consular
information sheets to warn U.S. citizens about travel to
areas where such incidents had occurred. The latter action
would hurt Macedonia's image, especially in the predominantly

eAlbanian western area, negatively affecting tourism and
trade prospects there.


6. (C) EUSR Fouere added that he had just returned from
Brussels, where EU officials had expressed concerns about the
latest developments. The incidents were giving "ammunition"
to skeptics who claimed that eAlbanians could not function as
constructive players in a democratic state, and to skeptics
of future EU and NATO enlargement.


7. (C) Noting the urgency of the situation, Fouere called on
Ahmeti and Xhaferi to demonstrate real leadership by
instructing their supporters to end the violence. If they
did not, the EU would support the measures the US Embassy was
ready to take, and also would consider adding names to the EU
visa ban list. Senior EU officials, including Javier Solana
and Enlargement Commissioner Rehn, would "not hesitate to put
responsibility where it is due."

DUI AND DPA REACTIONS: TAKE RESPONSIBILITY, WITHDRAW FROM
ELECTIONS, RESIGN, OR BLAME THE POLICE


8. (C) DUI's Ahmeti readily agreed to put past incidents
behind the party and to move forward. He wanted both sides
to take responsibility for preventing future incidents. The
parties had to avoid the use of violence. He hoped for a
free campaign without violent incidents. If the parties
jointly assumed responsibility for that outcome, the
elections would be successful.


9. (C) DPA's Xhaferi recounted his view of the history of
elections in Macedonia since 1994. He suggested that DPA had
won some elections fairly and lost others without major
complaint, contrasting that pattern with DUI's recent
landslide wins in local elections. After DUI had won the
2002 elections, even with what Xhaferi characterized as an
unrealistically high margin of victory, DPA had bowed out
without violent resistance and had let Ahmeti constitute the
government. DUI, on the other hand, was set on winning every
election, regardless of how it achieved that goal. That was
wrong; Ahmeti's party had to learn how to lose in a democracy.


10. (C) Xhaferi proposed two possible solutions for the
current impasse: DPA could withdraw from the elections and
"wait for a better time" to compete, or both Xhaferi and
Ahmeti could resign to show the public that they were
responsible leaders. If these incidents were occurring, he
said, it demonstrated that neither leader was in control of
his party. He and Thaci insisted that "the police and secret
services" were responsible for provoking most of the
incidents, and that DUI was only partially responsible.

RESTRAIN KOSOVAR ALBANIANS OR GET RID OF THEM


11. (C) Responding to Xhaferi, the Ambassador noted that past
incidents did not justify using similar violent methods in
the present campaign. She called on Xhaferi and Ahmeti to
exercise leadership, noting that difficult challenges called
for leaders to act constructively and not to withdraw, a
point Fouere later endorsed. She also noted that both sides
were supported by Kosovar Albanians in Macedonia who were
engaged in violence and intimidation. Since both parties
appeared to have reached a "balance of power" with regard to
such forces, they should either pledge to prevent the Kosovar
Albanians from taking further action, or ensure that they
left Macedonia immediately.


12. (C) The Ambassador called on both leaders to make it
clear to supporters that they should refrain from further
acts or provocations, and to make a commitment to improving
the general pre-election climate. Fouere suggested that
Ahmeti and Xhaferi both face the media and publicly call for
an end to violent acts while pledging to redouble efforts to
ensure free and fair elections.

JOINT STATEMENT CALLING FOR END TO VIOLENT INCIDENTS AND FOR
FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS


13. (C) After some discussion of whether a public statement

would have a real impact on ending the violence (given DPA's
contention that the violent incidents stem from a conspiracy
by police to provoke them),both DUI and DPA agreed to a
joint statement calling for an end to violent incidents. The
Ambassador and EUSR subsequently gave a joint statement to
the local media expressing their grave concern over recent
developments, pointing out the potential negative
consequences of such incidents, and calling on all parties to
work for free, fair and peaceful elections. Immediately
after the joint US-EU statement, Ahmeti and Xhaferi included
similar points in their own joint statement, which received
extensive, positive local media coverage.

COMMENT


14. (C) The concerted IC effort to bring the DUI and DPA
leaders to their senses appears, for now, to have calmed a
situation that threatened to escalate after the Saraj
shooting. The joint Ahmeti-Xhaferi statement is a welcome
first step and signal to the public and to DUI and DPA
supporters, and puts both leaders on record as committing
themselves to peaceful elections. A more important next
step, however, will require DUI and DPA to ensure followers
desist from further provocative acts, to either expel or
restrain their Kosovar Albanian "muscle," and to monitor the
situation on the ground to ensure that any independent,
spontaneous incidents caused by supporters are quickly
contained. We, and our EU, NATO, and OSCE partners, will be
watching carefully to ensure both sides follow through. If
one or both fail to do so, we will take the next step and
begin putting in place the measures to make operational the
"serious consequences" we warned Ahmeti and Xhaferi about.
End Comment.
MILOVANOVIC