MACEDONIA: POLITICAL LEADERS EXPECT INDEPENDENT

UNCLAS SKOPJE 000497

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: POLITICAL LEADERS EXPECT INDEPENDENT
MONTENEGRO WILL BOLSTER REGIONAL STABILITY



1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Initial Macedonian reaction to the May 21
Montenegro referendum on independence has been generally
positive, with most interlocutors welcoming the development
as contributing to bolstering regional stability. It is
encouraging that harder-line eAlbanian parties, such as
opposition DPA, have not tried to exploit the Montenegro vote
by calling for greater autonomy for Macedonia's eAlbanian
citizens. End Summary.


2. (U) Initial Macedonian reaction to the unofficial results
of Montenegro's May 21 referendum on independence has been
positive. President Crvenkovski and PM Buckovski both
congratulated their Montenegrin counterparts on May 22, with
Crvenkovski stating that the referendum outcome would
"provide a positive contribution to regional stability."
President of Parliament Jordanovski also told Charge May 22
that he expected Montenegrin independence to bolster
stability in the region.


3. (SBU) Opposition party VMRO-DPMNE's spokesman told us the
party does not expect the referendum to have a destabilizing
effect, and is pleased the process was carried out in
accordance with EU standards. SDSM (governing majority
coalition partner) highlighted the fact that the referendum
process was conducted in a "calm and democratic" manner, but
worried that some parties might reject the results and try to
"create independent areas" along the lines of ethnic enclaves
in Bosnia-Herzegovina.


4. (SBU) Ethnic Albanian governing minority coalition partner
DUI welcomed an independent Montenegro "as a positive
contribution to stabilization of the region." DUI
Parliamentary Whip Rafiz Aliti suggested the development
could even strengthen the democratic process in Serbia, "as
Belgrade begins to understand that the future of the country
is in the NATO and EU."


5. (SBU) Ethnic Albanian opposition DPA's Vice President
Menduh Thaci told us that the region "is moving towards
stability" in the aftermath of the May 21 referendum. He
added that the next challenges for the western Balkans would
be conducting free and fair elections in Macedonia and then
solving the Kosovo status issue, after which leaders could
"focus on everyday issues" affecting their citizens.


6. (SBU) COMMENT: Not surprisingly, the general Macedonian
reaction to the Montenegro referendum outcome has been
positive, with most political interlocutors commenting on its
expected contribution to consolidating regional stability.
It is encouraging that DPA, which in the past has pushed for
radically broader autonomy for eAlbanians in Macedonia, has
not attempted to exploit the Montenegro vote to argue that
case.
WOHLERS