MACEDONIA: PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS SET FOR JULY 5,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SKOPJE 000420

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/05/2016
TAGS: PGOV MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS SET FOR JULY 5,
CAMPAIGN PLATFORMS TAKE SHAPE

REF: SKOPJE 294 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: P/E CHIEF SHUBLER, REASONS 1.4(B) & (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY. With parliamentary elections scheduled for
July 5, governing and opposition parties are building their
campaign platforms around common themes of economic
development, NATO and EU integration, and education. Despite
their stated intent to run issues-based campaigns, however,
the parties continue the political trench warfare they began
earlier this year (reftel). Current polls show opposition
VMRO-DPMNE with a comfortable lead over governing SDSM, and
eAlbanian junior coalition partner DUI maintaining its lead
over rival DPA. If the mudslinging, catcalling, and
generally negative tone of the current campaign continues,
voter turnout could be lower than normal, undecided voters
would probably punish the governing coalition, and the
current opposition could end up in a winning coalition by
default. End Summary.

PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS JULY 5


2. (SBU) Macedonia's Speaker of Parliament announced April 20
that parliamentary elections will be held on July 5. The
announcement, confirming the worst-kept secret in Skopje in
recent weeks, followed the parliament's confirmation of the
composition of the State Electoral Commission, which will
administer the election. Although the official campaign
season begins 20 days before election day, all of the parties
have been informally campaigning for the past several months
(reftel).

GOVERNING PARTIES FOCUS ON ECONOMY, EDUCATION, EURO-ATLANTIC
INTEGRATION


3. (SBU) SDSM (governing coalition senior partner) SecGen
Kjurkciev told us April 26 that the party's campaign platform
would consist mainly of the "three E's": economic
development, education, and EU integration. Governing
coalition partner DUI will follow a similar line, focusing on
economic and social development issues, as well as on NATO
and EU integration. (Comment: The SDSM and DUI platforms
neatly reflect voters' top priorities as expressed in recent
polls -- economic development and jobs, EU integration, and
NATO membership. End Comment.) DUI also will take credit for
progress achieved in implementing the 2001 Framework
Agreement (FWA),including increases in the number of
eAlbanians employed in state institutions under the
government's equitable representation program.

ETHNIC MACEDONIAN OPPOSITION MIRRORS FOCUS ON ECONOMY,
EDUCATION, EURO-ATLANTIC INTEGRATION


4. (SBU) The main opposition parties are taking a similar
tack. VMRO-DPMNE officials tell us that "60 percent" of
their campaign platform will consist of economic issues,
including tax reforms, sustainable development, agriculture,
and investment climate reforms. Education and health care
reforms will also figure in the VMRO-DPMNE campaign, as will
combating corruption. According to VMRO-DPMNE SecGen
Jankulovska, the party will pledge to move Macedonia "into
the first third of the Transparency International corruption
perception index list" -- it currently is ranked 104 of 159
countries on the list. Inter-ethnic issues will not figure
prominently in DPMNE's campaign.


5. (SBU) VMRO-Narodna is pledging to pursue a "positive
campaign" that focuses on improving the economic environment
for small businesses. The party will actively support NATO
and EU membership, while criticizing the slow pace of
Macedonia's progress toward NATO and EU membership to date.
Narodna also will propose a more progressive corporate tax,
and a decrease in the VAT on food. On agriculture, the party
will propose a government purchase of aircraft to help
farmers export produce to western European markets.


6. (C) Like VMRO-DPMNE, Narodna leaders say they will avoid
directly addressing FWA or inter-ethnic issues. However,
Narodna leader Georgievski's recent stump speeches have
chastised ethnic Macedonians for allowing themselves to
become "second class" citizens in their own country, a

SKOPJE 00000420 002 OF 002


thinly-veiled and ethno-centric reference to the perceived
political concessions eMacedonians have been forced to make
to eAlbanians.

ETHNIC RIGHTS CAMPAIGN PLANKS FOR eALBANIAN OPPOSITION DPA


7. (SBU) Opposition DPA (eAlbanian opposition) leaders tell
us they will attack DUI's record on FWA implementation and
will pledge to secure the use of the Albanian language in
Macedonian institutions as a second official language. They
also propose to accelerate implementation of equitable
representation, and to dedicate 25 percent of the state
budget for infrastructure and other projects to benefit the
eAlbanian population. DPA leader Arben Xhaferi has pledged
that the party will not engage in ethnic hate rhetoric. Like
the other opposition parties, DPA will also focus on economic
issues, but with a distinct focus on improving the "economic
equality" of ethnic Albanians in Macedonia.

POLITICAL TRENCH WARFARE CONTINUES


8. (SBU) Despite the parties' stated intent to run
issues-based campaigns and to refrain from ad hominem
attacks, the political mudslinging and catcalling that began
earlier this year has continued unabated. VMRO-DPMNE and
SDSM have traded salvoes in the local press recently over
mutual accusations of involvement in the region's lucrative
cigarette smuggling business.


9. (C) DPA has attacked DUI for allegedly selling out
eAlbanian interests during its stint in the coalition
government. DPA also accuses DUI of bringing in Kosovar
"muscle" to help manipulate the election results in DUI's
favor, and has pledged to call in its own Kosovar
"reinforcements" to act as a deterrent against DUI's allies
from Kosovo, a move the Ambassador has actively discouraged
while warning DUI against allowing foreign "supporters" from
interfering in the electoral process.

POLLS SHOW VMRO-DPMNE MAINTAINING LEAD OVER RULING SDSM


10. (U) A recent poll conducted by a domestic NGO shows that
52 percent of citizens are undecided regarding which party
they will vote for in the elections, while 29 percent say
they will support VMRO-DPMNE, 21 percent will back SDSM, and
16 percent will support DUI. DPA garners 10 percent support,
SDSM offshoot NSDP gets an impressive 6 percent, and the
smaller parties, including VMRO-Narodna, get 4 percent or
less. The most popular politicians in Macedonia are
VMRO-DPMNE President Nikola Gruevski (32.2 percent),DUI
leader Ali Ahmeti (17%),and NSDP President Tito Petkovski
(15%). Reflecting widespread dissatisfaction with the
government's inability to boost economic growth sufficiently
to lower unemployment, only 8 percent of citizens express any
confidence in PM Buckovski.

COMMENT


11. (C) Given the SDSM-led government's consistently low
ratings in the polls, we are hearing from an increasing
number of SDSM government officials that they do not expect
the current coalition to last beyond July 5. Local political
analysts have commented to us that intensely negative
political campaigning traditionally has produced lower voter
turnout, which has tended to favor the opposition. If the
negative tone of the current campaign continues, turnout
could be lower than expected and undecided voters could end
up backing the opposition, producing a winning coalition for
the current opposition by default, and validating the
increasingly negative public view of government officials in
general. End Comment.
MILOVANOVIC