MACEDONIA: CAMPAIGN RHETORIC HEATS UP AS SUMMER

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SKOPJE 000294

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: CAMPAIGN RHETORIC HEATS UP AS SUMMER
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS APPROACH

REF: A. SKOPJE 286

B. SKOPJE 266

SUMMARY


1. (SBU) With parliamentary elections possible as soon as
late June, political parties are fueling increasingly heated
pre-campaign rhetoric with personal attacks and mudslinging.
Although the parties publicly deny it, there are numerous
behind-the-scenes discussions ongoing about possible
post-election coalition arrangements. A draft electoral code
was finally passed on March 29, the first step toward setting
an election date. Skirmishing between governing SDSM and
opposition VMRO-DPMNE over key provisions of the code had
delayed passage of the law for several weeks.


2. (SBU) Recent polls indicate that no party will win a
dominant share of Parliament seats, raising the possibility
of unpredictable post-election coalition negotiations and a
realignment of the parties. Ethnic Albanian junior coalition
party DUI, however, will likely emerge from the elections
with considerable leverage. End Summary.

PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE JUNE OR EARLY JULY


3. (SBU) Macedonia must hold parliamentary elections on or
before October 3, with parties vying for 120 seats in the
country's unicameral parliament. Voters will cast ballots in
six electoral districts with 20 seats each. Each district is
comprised of approximately 280,000 voters. PM Buckovski
recently told the Ambassador he hopes to hold elections in
late June or, at the latest, July 5, before Macedonians head
off on summer vacation and before the World Cup Championship
soccer match is broadcast later that week.

CAMPAIGN RHETORIC HEATS UP


4. (SBU) Although the election date still has not been
officially announced (the President of Parliament must
formally announce the date at least 70 days before election
day),the parties already have raised the temperature of the
political campaign. Governing SDSM has bashed Nikola
Gruevski, leader of the opposition VMRO-DPMNE, for allegedly
questionable real estate transactions he made while he was in
government from 1998-2002. Gruevski has counter-punched with
accusations that PM Buckovski profited from equally dubious
real estate deals concluded when he was Minister of Defense
from 2002-2004. The parties also traded blows over the
recent privatization of the distribution assets of state
power utility ESM (ref A),with VMRO-DPMNE apparently behind
street blockades organized to protest the deal, and SDSM
questioning VMRO-DPMNE's free market credentials for opposing
the privatization.


5. (U) The ethnic Albanian parties have jumped into the fray
with equal ardor. Opposition DPA has hammered governing
coalition junior partner DUI for failing to achieve any
measurable progress in implementing the 2001 Ohrid Framework
Agreement. DPA also accuses DUI of failing to secure
government benefits for ethnic Albanian National Liberation
Army (NLA) fighters and their families who suffered damages
as a result of the 2001 conflict. Both DPA and the smaller
ethnic Albanian opposition party PDP also criticized DUI for
failing to publicly denounce a recent police action in the
predominantly ethnic Albanian village of Kondovo in which one
eAlbanian criminal suspect was killed (ref B).

ETHNIC ALBANIAN FRONT-RUNNER FOCUSES ON ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT


6. (U) DUI, the eAlbanian front-runner with a 3-to-1 lead
over DPA in current polls, is vowing to stick to the issues
in its campaign platform, and to focus on economic
development as one of its main themes. With the party's
strong lead in the polls, DUI leaders are confident they can
win up to 20 seats in the elections; that would be a gain of
five seats since the last parliamentary elections in 2002.
The party has backed off previous demands that the governing
coalition reach a compromise solution before the elections on
a language law, or on a law to provide benefits to 2001 NLA

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veterans and their families. DUI leaders acknowledge that
their SDSM partners could not now support such legislation
without alienating ethnic Macedonian supporters.

COALITION MINUET


7. (SBU) Although the parties publicly deny engaging in any
pre-electoral coalition arrangements, it is an open secret
here that SDSM has been courting DPA as an alternative
post-electoral coalition partner, and that DUI, in turn, has
been flirting with VMRO-DPMNE. DPMNE accuses VMRO-Narodna,
its archrival on the eMacedonian right, of being in bed with
SDSM, while DUI privately has told us they suspect SDSM is
trying to pre-position a "minority government" that would
exclude them.


8. (SBU) Former SDSM maverick Tito Petkovski, who now
controls three former SDSM MP seats following his breakaway
founding of the NSDP last year, remains a chaste dance
partner. Petkovski refuses to speculate on a pre-election
coalition agreement, but is likely in the end to leverage his
strong support among disenchanted SDSM voters (if elections
were held today, he would garner nearly five percent of the
votes, compared to SDSM's nine percent) in a post-election
coalition arrangement with Buckovski's Social Democrats.


ELECTORAL CODE RUMBLE


9. (U) Parliament finally took the first step in the election
process, after weeks of acrimonious debate, by passing a new
electoral code on March 29. Until recently, VMRO-DPMNE had
engaged in a pitched battle with SDSM over provisions in the
code governing the composition of the local electoral boards
that administer polling stations. PM Buckovski finally
brokered a compromise with VMRO-DPMNE on the composition of
the boards, and the code was approved with the support of all
parties except VMRO-Narodna, which walked out of Parliament
before the vote, charging PM Buckovski with reneging on an
earlier agreement with Narodna.

POLLS SHOW A STRENGTHENED OPPOSITION


10. (SBU) A March 22 poll shows more than 13 percent of
voters would cast ballots for VMRO-DPMNE in parliamentary
elections, 9 percent would vote for SDSM, and only two
percent would support VMRO-Narodna. Among eAlbanians, DUI
would garner over 10 percent, with DPA lagging at four
percent. Pollsters tell us that the poll's margin of error
is large enough that the gap could be far smaller. They also
caution that percentages translate only imperfectly into
seats in Parliament. Most analysts predict a close race, at
least in terms of seats. Nevertheless, if these results are
reflected in the balloting this summer, VMRO-DPMNE could
attempt to form a governing coalition with DPA and several
smaller parties. DUI leader Ali Ahmeti has told us privately
that he will insist that any coalition government include the
eAlbanian party with the largest number of MP seats.


11. (U) At this stage, more than 45 percent of respondents
still say they will not vote, or are undecided about the
party they would support. Overall, the poll indicates voter
turnout is unlikely to top 60 percent, not much different
from previous elections; that would favor the opposition
parties since they are more likely to be able to mobilize
undecided voters and voters unhappy with the current
government.

PRESIDENT TAKES THE MORAL HIGH GROUND


12. (U) Rising above the fray, President Crvenkovski has used
his office to launch an initiative to press for free and fair
elections as a prerequisite for Macedonia's Euro-Atlantic
aspirations. Together with the Ambassador, accompanied by
the EUSR and OSCE ambassador, Crvenkovski has held a series
of public and private meetings and roundtables with the
media, NGOs, and religious leaders, calling on all of them to
play a constructive, responsible role in ensuring free and
fair elections. Although A1 TV and the daily Vreme (both

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owned by Velija Ramkovski, who recently settled his USD 1.8m
debt to a U.S. foundation) have sharply criticized him for
involving the so-called "international factor" in this
process, Macedonian political analysts tell us they believe
the IC's engagement in this endeavor is critical.

COMMENT


13. (SBU) A pattern of political behavior is emerging from
the Byzantine maneuvers of the parties in the "pre-campaign"
period. The opposition has seemed intent on creating and
fueling an atmosphere of tension and incipient crisis in
order to keep the pool of frustrated and undecided voters
filled. At the same time, the government has kept the
opposition off-balance by offering concessions to demonstrate
publicly its flexibility, and then amending them later so
that the opposition rejects them, ends up looking obdurate,
and fights publicly among themselves. Buckovski so far has
proved to be the master of such maneuvers, outfoxing the
opposition at every turn. That approach may work to his
tactical advantage now, but over the long run it can only
help feed public dissatisfaction with the entire political
establishment. Meanwhile, with the media and opposition
determined to focus on the negative, even a more positive
Buckovski approach might well be futile.
MILOVANOVIC