Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06SKOPJE251
2006-03-14 16:13:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Skopje
Cable title:  

MACEDONIA: GOVERNMENT FOCUSED ON GAMEPLAN FOR NATO

Tags:  PREL PGOV MARR MOPS NATO MK 
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VZCZCXRO8379
PP RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHSQ #0251/01 0731613
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 141613Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY SKOPJE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4402
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CDR TF FALCON
RHMFISS/CDRUSAREUR HEIDELBERG GE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUESEN/SKOPJE BETA
RUEHSQ/USDAO SKOPJE MK
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 SKOPJE 000251 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/SCE, EUR/RPM FOR PDAS VOLKER
DEFENSE FOR OSD (SSCHLESS)
EUCOM FOR ECJ5-E (ANDERSON)
USMISSION USNATO FOR POL HBAEZ

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/14/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR MOPS NATO MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: GOVERNMENT FOCUSED ON GAMEPLAN FOR NATO
MEMBERSHIP PREPARATIONS

REF: SKOPJE 207

Classified By: P/E CHIEF SHUBLER, REASONS 1.4(B) & (D).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 SKOPJE 000251

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/SCE, EUR/RPM FOR PDAS VOLKER
DEFENSE FOR OSD (SSCHLESS)
EUCOM FOR ECJ5-E (ANDERSON)
USMISSION USNATO FOR POL HBAEZ

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/14/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR MOPS NATO MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: GOVERNMENT FOCUSED ON GAMEPLAN FOR NATO
MEMBERSHIP PREPARATIONS

REF: SKOPJE 207

Classified By: P/E CHIEF SHUBLER, REASONS 1.4(B) & (D).


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: During her March 7-8 visit to Skopje with a
U.S. interagency delegation, USNATO Ambassador Nuland told
Macedonian government and opposition interlocutors that free
and fair parliamentary elections would be one key to keeping
NATO's door open in 2008. She urged them to continue
Framework Agreement (FWA) implementation, enhance religious
freedom protection, strengthen rule of law, and improve
business conditions to make the best possible case for
Macedonia's NATO membership prospects in 2008. She noted
that time is of the essence and that Macedonia must be ready
to make that case by mid-2007. She urged the government to
work on promoting Macedonia abroad as a stable, multi-ethnic
democracy. Amb. Nuland praised Macedonia's progress on
defense reforms, strong defense spending, and ambitious
overseas deployment activities, while cautioning against
"overheating."


2. (SBU) Government and opposition interlocutors acknowledged
the critical importance of free and fair elections, and
generally agreed that FWA implementation had been successful
to date. They agreed on the need to continue judicial
reforms; to combat corruption, police abuse and trafficking
in persons; and to improve the business investment climate.
They acknowledged the need to improve Macedonia's image
abroad. Nearly all noted the nationwide and party-wide
consensus on the desirability of NATO membership. The
government knows it has its NATO membership gameplan and much
hard work ahead to execute it. Our challenge will be keeping
the government focused on the gameplan during the
pre-electoral campaign period, and ensuring the next
government moves quickly to deepen reforms. End Summary.



INTERAGENCY USG DELEGATION VISIT MARCH 7-8


3. (U) USNATO Ambassador Victoria Nuland led a US interagency
delegation to Skopje March 7-8 for discussions with President
Crvenkovski, and with Prime Minister Buckovski, FM Mitreva,
MOD Manasievski, Deputy PM Xhaferi and other senior
government officials. The delegation also met with
opposition leaders in the parliament, and with Parliamentary
Speaker (PS) Jordanovski and the Parliamentary Committees on
Foreign Affairs and Defense and Security. Ambassador Nuland
gave a presentation on "NATO in the 21st Century" to
government officials, members of the diplomatic corps,
think-tank representatives and the media, under the auspices
of the Macedonian Euro-Atlantic Council on March 8. Members
of the US delegation included EUR PDAS Kurt Volker; OSD
Principal Director for Eurasia Scott Schless; CAPT Paul
"Chip" Jaenicken, Chief of Western Europe/Balkans Division,
JCS; COL. Michael Anderson, EUCOM ECJ5-E Director of the
Europe Division; and USNATO POLOFF Alejandro Baez.
Ambassador, DATT (notetaker),and P/E Chief (notetaker)
accompanied the delegation.

KEY US MESSAGES:

--FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS KEY TO KEEPING NATO'S OPEN DOOR OPEN


4. (SBU) In her meetings, Ambassador Nuland said the USG
wanted to help Macedonia become the strongest possible
candidate for NATO membership by 2008. Macedonia's success
as a multi-ethnic democracy was a model for the region and
beyond, but the roots of the country's democracy needed to be
strengthened. As a first priority, the government and
opposition had to ensure the freest, fairest parliamentary
elections in 2006; otherwise, the door to NATO would close
for 2008.

--FWA IMPLEMENTATION, RELIGIOUS FREEDOM, STRENGTHEN RULE OF
LAW, IMPROVE BUSINESS CONDITIONS


SKOPJE 00000251 002 OF 005



5. (SBU) Nuland stressed that Macedonia needed to continue
implementation of the 2001 Ohrid Framework Agreement (FWA);
to enhance protection of religious freedom; to step up
efforts to combat police corruption and abuses, as well as
trafficking in persons; and to complete the packet of
judicial reforms it had begun in 2005. The courts had to
become fully functional, with at least several major
corruption cases prosecuted by mid-2007. The government also
had to ensure that privatization of the national electrical
power supply company was a "model of transparency;" that
would help improve investor confidence in the country.

--TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE, WORK ON IMPROVING MACEDONIA'S
IMAGE, NO MEMBERSHIP GUARANTEE


6. (SBU) Nuland urged the government, parliament, and
opposition leaders to work together "in national unity" to
coordinate efforts on NATO accession criteria. Time was of
the essence, since key reforms had to be completed or well
underway by mid-2007.


7. (SBU) Nuland pointed out that Europeans do not view
developments in Macedonia as positively as does the US. The
country still has an image problem, especially with Germany,
Netherlands, and the Nordic countries. The GOM would have to
promote a new image by telling Macedonia's story to European
governments, parliamentarians, and elites. Similarly,
Macedonia needs to reach out to the U.S. Senators who would
have to ratify Macedonia's NATO candidacy.


8. (SBU) Although the U.S. would support Macedonia, Nuland
stressed that the responsibility for meeting NATO's
performance-based standards ultimately falls to the
government, the opposition, and the citizens of Macedonia.
There were no guarantees; NATO decisions on membership would
be based on individual performance. At the Riga Summit,
Allies would reaffirm NATO's Open Door policy, possibly
adding encouraging language tailored for each aspirant.

--DEFENSE REFORMS ON TRACK, DON'T OVERHEAT


9. (SBU) Nuland said Macedonia's overseas deployments and
financial commitment to defense spending were admirable, but
that the government had to be careful to avoid "overheating."
She thanked Macedonia for becoming a "net exporter of
security," and urged continued progress on defense reforms
and downsizing. Nuland said it was important to continue
efforts to build an ethnically representative military, while
at the same time not sacrificing quality.

ELECTIONS: DISPELLING ATMOSPHERE OF MUTUAL MISTRUST


10. (C) PM Buckovski acknowledged the importance of the
parliamentary elections; the government wanted to hold them
before the first week in July to give the next government
time enough to constitute itself and continue the reform
process. FM Mitreva noted that the government wanted to
ensure that the elections did not detract from the reform
process.


11. (SBU) Opposition VMRO-DPMNE leader Gruesvki expressed
concern that the government's draft electoral code would be
subject to manipulation, increasing chances of fraud during
the elections. He said the opposition wanted to dispel the
atmosphere of mistrust and find a compromise on the electoral
code. (NOTE: Over the March 11-12 weekend, the government
and opposition parties reached a compromise on the key
sticking point in the electoral code regarding composition of
local election boards. END NOTE.)


12. (SBU) Other ethnic Macedonian opposition leaders agreed
on the need for a compromise on the electoral code. VMRO-NP
leader Janevska said the parties needed to find the political
will to ensure free and fair elections, while ethnic Albanian
PDP leader Vesejli commented that all parties had to bear
responsibility for the fair conduct of the elections.

SKOPJE 00000251 003 OF 005


Vesejli did, however, lay the main burden on the government
"since they control the police and have stuffed ballot boxes
in the past." NSDP leader Tito Petkovski warned that
"radicalization" during the elections could cost Macedonia
its NATO membership prospect.

FWA IMPLEMENTATION AND CONSOLIDATION OF DEMOCRACY


13. (SBU) PM Buckovski noted that the FWA had helped
stabilize the political situation in Macedonian. Completion
of the legislative requirements of the FWA was critical in
that regard, as was the ongoing decentralization process. As
a result, inter-ethnic relations were stable and improving;
Macedonia was willing to share its experiences in that regard
with Kosovo and other countries in the region.


14. (SBU) Deputy PM Xhaferi agreed that the FWA was a success
story and a model for the region. However, the government
had to continue FWA implementation, including consolidation
of a multi-ethnic police force and decentralization.
Remaining legal provisions for the use of minority languages,
and continued progress in implementing equitable
representation, also were important. PS Jordanovski said the
FWA's legislative requirements had been completed, but noted
that "democratic rights can always be further enhanced."


15. (SBU) Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Teuta Arifi said
the country was now moving from the FWA's initial focus on
security and stability to the "second phase" of consolidation
of democracy. The country needed "good elections and
judicial reforms not because of NATO requirements, but
because of us," she added.


16. (SBU) Iljaz Halimi, of the opposition ethnic Albanian
DPA, complained the FWA was not being fully implemented, in
particular equitable representation and the minority language
use provisions. He also complained about police mistreatment
of ethnic minorities, citing the recent police shooting of an
ethnic Albanian criminal suspect in the Skopje suburb of
Kondovo (reftel).

JUDICIAL REFORMS AND IMPROVING BUSINESS CLIMATE.


17. (SBU) Noting that judicial reforms were the government's
second key goal, after completing FWA implementation,
Buckovski said the government was committed to promoting the
rule of law and to fighting organized crime and corruption,
which would help improve the foreign investment climate.
Buckovski noted that the government was working on a new
bankruptcy law to further improve the business climate.


18. (SBU) President Crvenkovski added that, between
2001-2002, inter-ethnic conflict had prevented progress on
judicial and economic reforms. The situation had changed
significantly since then. Judicial reforms would be
completed in 2006 and implementation would begin in 2007.
Nuland noted that implementation needed to begin before 2007,
before the US conducted its next assessment of Macedonia's
progress on MAP implementation. Crvenkovski agreed. He said
that the results of the government's economic liberalization
policies would gradually be evident, and would reflect the
status of other ongoing reform processes (e.g., transparent
privatization, independent judiciary, political stability).


19. (SBU) Opposition leaders disagreed with Buckovksi's
optimistic characterization of progress on reforms,
complaining that the government had passed numerous laws
which it had then failed to implement. They accused the
government of lacking the political will to implement tough
reforms, of neglecting economic issues, and -- in one case --
of allowing discrimination against ethnic Macedonians by the
ethnic Albanian mayor of Gostivar in western Macedonia.
(Comment: The Gostivar mayor has received both praise and
criticism from residents -- both ethnic Macedonian and ethnic
Albanian -- for enforcing zoning laws and tearing down
buildings constructed without the necessary permits. End

SKOPJE 00000251 004 OF 005


Comment.)

DEFENSE "TRANSFORMATION FEVER"


20. (SBU) MOD Manasievski said his Ministry is in a
"transformation fever," having received a "very positive PARP
assessment" this year. The government was committed to
maintaining defense spending at approximately 2.3 percent of
GDP annually, and would nearly triple its deployment of
troops overseas in 2006 to support alliance operations, with
possible additional increases in the future. The MOD also
was supporting regional defense cooperation arrangements
beyond its involvement in the Adriatic Charter, having
established separate cooperation arrangements with Albania
and Bulgaria, and with Albania and Greece. PS Jordanovski
noted the parliament's role in adopting key laws related to
Macedonia's MAP process, and said Macedonia would continue to
"do its part, hoping not for reward, but recognition" for
that effort.

WORKING ON MACEDONIA'S IMAGE -- SUBSTANCE REQUIRED


21. (SBU) President Crvenkovski said Macedonians knew how
much work was left to be done, and how much depended on them
if the country was to succeed in its NATO membership
aspirations. He said the government understood the
importance of lobbying abroad to improve the country's image,
but that effort could succeed only if there was "substance"
behind the image. The country's overall image also would be
important to investors seeking a secure investment location.
Crvenkovski said he would visit various EU countries to
explain the progress Macedonia had made, both to gain support
for Macedonia's NATO prospects, and to reassure potential
investors.

STRONG PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR NATO


22. (SBU) President Crvenkovski noted the strong inter-ethnic
consensus in Macedonia for NATO membership, adding that the
process of integration into NATO had translated into
"internal integration for the country." FM Mitreva commented
that -- at 90 percent -- public support for NATO membership
was "the highest ever for an aspirant country." PS
Jordanovski also noted the "party-wide, nationwide consensus
in favor of joining NATO." PDAS Volker urged the government
to "use that support as a base for achieving the strategic
consensus" required to carry out MAP-related reforms.

COMPLEMENTARITY OF NATO/EU REFORMS


23. (SBU) FM Mitreva pointed out that the reforms the
government was implementing to meet EU membership criteria
(judicial, police, economic) coincided with what was needed
to meet NATO MAP requirements. Many of those requirements
already had been met. She also noted government plans to
form a special high-level interagency NATO Task Force that
would include government, NGOs, business leaders, members of
parliament, and the opposition to help pass and implement
MAP-related reforms.

RIGA SUMMIT: WE NEED A NATO SIGNAL


24. (SBU) PM Buckovski noted that Macedonia's NATO
aspirations are the government's key priority, and that
Macedonia hoped for a clear message from the Riga Summit
declaration on its membership prospects. He asked Nuland to
"be our Iron Lady" in supporting Macedonia in Riga. FM
Mitreva echoed that line, saying the country needed a clear
message on enlargement. Foreign Affairs Committee Chair
Arifi asked that the "internal deliberations" at the 2006
summit "not preclude the western Balkans," since "we need
NATO, and NATO needs us."

COMMENT


25. (C) The US delegation's visit was invaluable to focus the

SKOPJE 00000251 005 OF 005


government, opposition, and media on the key reforms required
by mid-2007 for Macedonia to make its case for NATO
membership. The Prime Minister's National Security Adviser
told us that the PM gathered Mitreva, Manasievski, and his
cabinet staff together after the meeting with Amb. Nuland and
told them: "we have our gameplan, now we have a lot of work
to do." Our challenge will be keeping the government focused
on continuing the reform process through the distractions of
the electoral campaign period, and ensuring there is
continuity in that effort afterwards, regardless of which
parties form the next coalition government. End Comment.
MILOVANOVIC