MACEDONIA: SUSTAINING POST-RIGA MOMENTUM ON NATO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SKOPJE 001165

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/09/2016
TAGS: PREL MARR PGOV PHUM NATO MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: SUSTAINING POST-RIGA MOMENTUM ON NATO
ACCESSION

REF: A. SKOPJE 1139


B. SKOPJE 1120

C. SKOPJE 1112

Classified By: P/E CHIEF SHUBLER, REASONS 1.5(b) and (d).

SUMMARY


1. (SBU) We are taking advantage of the positive post-Riga
Summit mood here to press the GOM to step up NATO MAP-related
reform implementation. Macedonia is making progress in some
areas -- working on constructive government-opposition
dialogue, promoting economic growth, and strengthening rule
of law. It also is taking steps to address religious freedom
and trafficking in persons challenges. We will use the next
several weeks to work with the government to enhance and
consolidate that progress, with the aim of giving Macedonia a
needed boost as it begins the crucial run-up to a membership
assessment in 2007, and a hoped-for membership invitation in

2008. End Summary.

POST-RIGA AFTERGLOW AND NATO MAP


2. (SBU) In the afterglow of the Riga Summit communique,
which was greeted very positively by the government, public,
and press (ref A),conditions are maximal for pressing the
GOM to ramp up efforts to implement its NATO MAP-related
reforms. During a December 4 meeting with Prime Minister
Gruevski, the Ambassador stressed the importance of
preserving and building upon Macedonia's reputation as a
stable, multi-ethnic democracy in the Balkans. She noted that
Macedonia has another eight months or so to complete the core
requirements related to its NATO MAP, including continued
efforts to forge a constructive political dialogue with the
main opposition parties.


3. (SBU) PM Gruevski readily accepted a second US-EU hosted
"Leadership Meeting" of the main government and opposition
party leaders to discuss the way forward on key legislative
and policy priorities (ref B). He offered two government
priorities (constitutional changes regarding the educational
system and establishment of a ministry for information
technology) for us to add to the agenda for the meeting,
scheduled for December 13.

CONTINUED SUPPORT FOR NATO ISAF IN AFGHANISTAN AND IRAQ
OPERATIONS


4. (SBU) The Ambassador thanked Gruevski for Macedonia's
continued support for NATO ISAF efforts in Afghanistan and
for its contributions to operations in Iraq. She noted the
positive impact of Macedonia's recent decision to lift five
of seven caveats on its forces supporting ISAF operations
(ref C). Gruevski said he understood the importance of that
decision, and that he looked forward to visiting Macedonia's
soldiers serving in Iraq and Afghanistan in April or May 2007.

MOVING AHEAD ON ECONOMIC CRITERIA, RULE OF LAW


5. (SBU) The Ambassador noted that Macedonia's economic
indicators generally were positive, with a recent USG
assessment concluding its sovereign and non-sovereign credit
ratings should be raised a step or two. Recent successful
prosecutions of organized crime cases, including a major
trafficking in persons case, had demonstrated some
strengthening of rule of law. The government still had a
long road ahead in the fight against corruption; judges in
corruption cases especially needed to demonstrate greater
control of the judicial process. PM Gruevski agreed that
Macedonian judges in some cases were politically influenced
and did not behave in accordance with the law.

HEADED IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION ON RELIGIOUS FREEDOM LAW


6. (C) The Ambassador expressed appreciation for the Prime
Minister's and Foreign Minister's recent efforts to lobby
Macedonia's Orthodox Church leaders for a law on religious
communities and groups that would provide maximum freedom for
such groups to register and practice in the country.
Gruevski replied that those discussions had been "tough."
Macedonian Orthodox Church (MOC) Archbishop Stefan was
"politically astute," he said; the other bishops in the MOC

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Synod were much less so and were opposed to a more liberal
law. Nevertheless, Gruevski said he accepted the need for a
tolerant religious freedom law as a "key element for NATO"
membership. The government had prepared a new draft
religious freedom law, which it would ask OSCE to review. If
the new draft met OSCE/ODIHR standards, Gruevski would then
review it with Macedonia's Islamic community leaders before
going back to lobby the MOC.

TACKLING TRAFFICKING IN PERSONS


7. (SBU) The Ambassador pressed for more GOM focus on
trafficking in persons (TIP) as another key NATO membership
requirement. She urged PM Gruevski to include at the
appropriate time in one of his public statements a
recognition of the TIP problem in Macedonia and a strong
commitment to combat it. Gruevski said he would immediately
include a discussion point on TIP for that day's government
session agenda. He also pledged to include a strong
statement on TIP in one of his upcoming speeches on fighting
organized crime.


8. (SBU) In addition to our efforts to get the government to
focus more publicly on TIP, we have arranged a December 8 TIP
digital video conference between State's G/TIP Office and GOM
officials involved in combating TIP. The objective of that
exercise (septel) is to discuss steps the government needs to
take to prevent the country from falling to Tier II Watchlist
for 2006, and to build a case for an eventual return from
Tier II to a Tier I rating.

REALISTIC EXPECTATIONS, ACCELERATING DEFENSE REFORMS


9. (SBU) In a December 7 meeting with the Ambassador,
President Crvenkovski said that the Riga Summit communique
had been very well-received in Macedonia, and that the
government was realistic about the work to be done in the
coming year. He had convened the National Security Council
on December 3 to discuss post-Riga tasks ahead, and was
pleased that both the government and opposition had shared a
forward-looking perspective on what needed to be done. The
MOD was planning to speed up implementation of defense
reforms by six months, in order to complete remaining
MAP-related reforms by June vice December 2007. One of the
NSC members, a former Defense Minister, had made a forceful
pitch for the importance of passing a religious freedom law
that met international standards.


10. (C) Crvenkovski's key concern was that the Gruevski
government is "spread too thin" and is not prioritizing NATO
membership-related tasks. The President recently had told PM
Gruevski that the government needed to focus on reforms and
programs related to NATO and EU membership, including Ohrid
Framework Agreement implementation, defense and judicial
reforms, and fighting corruption. Crvenkovski told the
Ambassador he felt part of the reason for the lack of
government focus was a sense of overconfidence, fed by high
poll numbers in its first 100 days "honeymoon period."

WORKING FOR POLITICAL BUY-IN FOR NATO MEMBERSHIP COMMITTEE


11. (SBU) Contacts in the Prime Minister's office have told
us that Gruevski plans to ask the opposition eAlbanian party
DUI and the opposition Social Democrats (SDSM) to nominate
representatives to participate in the newly-formed
Inter-Ministerial Committee for NATO Membership. The
committee meets monthly to coordinate government efforts on
NATO membership. The Social Democrats are likely to provide
a candidate, and DUI has told us they will consider doing so.
(NOTE: We have urged DUI to participate, since that would
send a positive political signal and would be easy to justify
to DUI's constituents as serving their interests in NATO
membership.)

COMMENT


12. (SBU) The positive climate fostered by the Riga Summit
communique and President Bush's statement on NATO enlargement
have provided us with important leverage to press the GOM to
redouble and focus its attention on completing the
NATO-related reforms necessary to make Macedonia a strong
contender for a membership invitation. We will work with GOM

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contacts over the next several weeks, while the post-Riga
"high" lasts, to enhance and consolidate the progress the
country already has made, and to give it a needed boost
before it sets off on the crucial run-up to a membership
assessment in 2007, and a hoped-for invitation in 2008.
MILOVANOVIC