Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06SKOPJE1095
2006-11-16 12:09:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Skopje
Cable title:  

MACEDONIA: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL DREIER'S VISIT,

Tags:  PGOV PREL PINR MK 
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DE RUEHSQ #1095/01 3201209
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FM AMEMBASSY SKOPJE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5431
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHVJ/AMEMBASSY SARAJEVO 0212
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUESEN/SKOPJE BETA
RUEHSQ/USDAO SKOPJE MK
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 2085
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SKOPJE 001095 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

STATE FOR EUR/SCE (PFEUFFER)

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL DREIER'S VISIT,
NOVEMBER 19-25


UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SKOPJE 001095

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

STATE FOR EUR/SCE (PFEUFFER)

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL DREIER'S VISIT,
NOVEMBER 19-25



1. (U) Welcome to Macedonia! HDAC,s assistance to the
Macedonian parliament, both the provision of IT equipment and
the opportunity for a professional visit to the United States
earlier this year, has made a real contribution here. Your
visit, nearly three months into the new government,s
mandate, comes at the right time both to consolidate what has
been achieved through the HDAC program to date and to deliver
some important messages to the new Macedonian government
(GOM).

CORE MESSAGES


2. We believe the GOM should:

--Pursue broad consultations and consensus-building with
opposition parties on key legislation and implementation of
reforms.

--Demonstrate through results your commitment to
implementation of the 2001 Framework Agreement (FWA),in
close consultation with opposition parties and parties not in
government.

--Work for broad political consensus to implement your
economic growth and reform agenda and to fulfill key criteria
for NATO and EU membership (including fighting corruption in
a non-partisan manner, combating trafficking in persons, and
ensuring Macedonia meets international religious freedom
standards).

POLITICAL CONTEXT -- DIALOGUE INCHES FORWARD


2. (SBU) The new inter-ethnic (ethnic Macedonian and ethnic
Albanian) governing coalition headed by Prime Minister
Gruevski was sworn-in on August 26. The government has only
just begun to implement some of its ambitious legislative and
economic growth agenda. Part of the reason for the slow
start is that the government has been unable or unwilling so
far to work effectively with the ethnic Albanian DUI
party, which won the majority of eAlbanian votes in the July
parliamentary elections but was not included in the governing
coalition. (NOTE: Having won the majority of eAlbanian
votes, DUI considers itself "out of government" but not/not
in the opposition, and refuses to use the word "opposition"
to describe itself.) Also hampering progress is the fact
that the government has dismissed or transferred and demoted
many civil servants. While some replacements are
well-qualified, many newly-emptied positions remain vacant,

and some have been filled with neophytes.


3. (SBU) The government and DUI have made pro forma efforts
to discuss their differences, but the dialogue has not
produced practical positive results. The GOM should
acknowledge that it must work differently with DUI which,
given its eAlbanian majority support, cannot be considered
just a "typical" opposition party. Consultation and
compromise with DUI on key legislative initiatives,
especially those related to the Framework Agreement (FWA),
must begin early on, and the government should demonstrate
flexibility and generosity in reaching consensus on those
initiatives. At the same time, DUI must show it can engage
in genuine dialogue and that it is prepared to reach
compromises before negotiations conclude; it cannot assume it
has veto power over legislative proposals.

FRAMEWORK IMPLEMENTATION -- MISSION NOT YET ACCOMPLISHED


4. (U) The new government has stated its commitment to full
implementation of the 2001 Framework Agreement (FWA) that
ended the inter-ethnic conflict in Macedonia that same year.
In fact, all FWA-related legislative requirements have been
met, most having been passed by the previous government.
Implementation of decentralization (the devolution of power
from the central government to local governments),and of
equitable representation of ethnic minorities in public
administration, were launched successfully a year ago. The
challenge for this government is to build on what was
achieved by its predecessor and to fully implement
decentralization without excessive partisanship in the
allocation of jobs or funds. Several FWA-related requirements

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-- including a law on languages -- remain to be completed,
and the government must demonstrate results in implementing
FWA-related reforms.

NATO AND EU MEMBERSHIP -- REFORMS MUTUALLY REINFORCING


5. (SBU) The government has stated its commitment to NATO and
EU membership as top foreign policy priorities, and is
supported by opinion polls showing 90 percent or higher
public support for membership in both organizations.
Nevertheless, the difficulty the government has shown in
managing effectively intra-coalition and
government-opposition relations has hampered initial progress
on the rule of law, judicial reform, and other political and
economic criteria Macedonia needs to fulfill to be considered
a strong candidate for membership in either organization.


6. (SBU) Macedonia could be a competitive candidate for a
NATO invitation at the next enlargement summit, given its
strong performance on defense reforms and its contributions
to NATO operations in Afghanistan. Government interlocutors
need to hear, however, that to achieve that goal the GOM must
work effectively with DUI to overcome the current political
impasse and find a mechanism for building broad consensus
with other opposition members for economic and other
NATO-related reforms. In addition, the government must show
concrete results in fighting corruption in a non-partisan
manner, redouble efforts to combat trafficking in persons,
and pass a religious freedom law that guarantees religious
communities and groups the
right to register and worship freely in Macedonia. (The
current law, while enforced unevenly, allows the GOM to limit
the number of confessions that can register as a religious
community or group. As a result, although the Macedonian
Orthodox Church is registered as a religious community, the
Serbian Orthodox Church cannot legally register as either a
religious community or group.)


7. (SBU) Although Macedonia received EU candidate status in
December 2005, it has yet to receive an invitation from
Brussels to begin accession negotiations. The government
received an assessment from the EU in early November on its
progress in meeting the EU acquis. That EU assessment
pointed to the need for political consensus in pursuing
reforms, especially in police and judicial reforms; continued
implementation of the FWA; and the need to show results in
combating corruption, as some of the challenges the country
will need to overcome before it can expect to begin accession
negotiations in the future.

KOSOVO FINAL STATUS -- BORDER DEMARCATION AS PART OF FINAL
STATUS SETTLEMENT


8. (SBU) The government's position on Kosovo final status has
been closely aligned with ours -- support for UN Special
Envoy Ahtisaari and the Contact Group, for a settlement as
soon as possible, and for resolution of the demarcation of
the Macedonia-Kosovo border in the context of a final status
settlement. (NOTE: The border was delineated, but not
demarcated, in a 2001 agreement between Belgrade and Skopje,
which Pristina rejects.) The government has indicated it
would be among the first to recognize an independent Kosovo
in the event the border demarcation issue is resolved as part
of a final status
settlement. Relations overall are good, with regular
meetings between Skopje and Pristina and an interim free
trade agreement signed between Macedonia and UNMIK/Pristina
in 2005. We encourage the government to continue its
constructive support for the final status process, and to
continue to adhere to the position that the border
demarcation issue should be resolved in the context of a
final status settlement.

NAME DISPUTE -- CONTINUE UN PROCESS


9. (SBU) Discussions between Greece and Macedonia on the
dispute over the latter's right to use its constitutional
name -- Republic of Macedonia -- continue under UN auspices.
The GOM has reiterated its "dual name" proposal (a mutually
agreed upon name for use in bilateral relations with Greece,

SKOPJE 00001095 003 OF 003


and the constitutional name for all other bilateral relations
and for use in multilateral fora) as the basis for further
discussions with the Greek government. Athens has rejected
that proposal. The USG recognized Macedonia's constitutional
name in 2004 for use in our bilateral relations. We continue
to urge both sides to be flexible and to work toward
compromise on this sensitive issue through participation in
the talks under UN auspices in New York.

ECONOMIC GROWTH -- NEED STABLE POLITICAL BASE


10. (SBU) PM Gruevski's top-priority goal is fostering
economic growth and development, a goal we share. The GOM is
aiming for a 6-8 percent annual GDP growth rate during its
mandate, compared to the 4.0 to 4.5 percent rate it inherited
from the previous government. The government hopes to
achieve that growth rate through tax cuts and a flat tax,
through fiscal stimulus, and by attracting foreign direct
investment. Overall, the macro-economic climate remains
positive, with low inflation and a stable exchange rate. A
US firm (Milwaukee-based Johnson Controls) recently broke
ground for the first major greenfield investment in
Macedonia's free trade zone near Skopje, a promising
investment "coup" for Macedonia.
Nevertheless, the government should accept that more robust
economic growth requires the political stability that will
accompany improved inter-ethnic relations and a more
consensus-based approach to implementing reforms.
MILOVANOVIC