MACEDONIA: SOCIAL DEMOCRATS ELECT NEW PARTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SKOPJE 001078

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: SOCIAL DEMOCRATS ELECT NEW PARTY
PRESIDENT

REF: SKOPJE 980

SUMMARY


1. (C) During a November 5 party congress that lasted into
the early hours of the following day, Social Democratic Union
of Macedonia (SDSM) delegates elected by a landslide former
Deputy Prime Minister Radmila Sekerinska as the new party
president. The delegates chose as the party's secretary
general a close associate of President Crvenkovski, himself a
former head of the SDSM. The SDSM central board later tapped
a member Crvenkovski's staff as one of the SDSM's three vice
presidents. The leadership change demonstrates Crvenkovski's
continued influence in the SDSM, and the fall from grace of
his former creation then rival, ex-Prime Minister Vlado
Buckovski. As Sekerinska consolidates her leadership
position she can be expected to work to distance herself from
Crvenkovski, whose past influence in the SDSM has been blamed
by some Social Democrat insiders for the party's failure to
undergo needed reforms. That could bode well, initially, for
the government's relations with SDSM. End Summary.

SOLE CANDIDATE


2. (SBU) The SDSM, the largest opposition party in Macedonia,
elected former Deputy Prime Minister Radmila Sekerinska as
the new party president during a November 5 party congress
that lasted into the early hours of the following day. SDSM
held the extraordinary congress nearly a month after the
former party president and ex-Prime Minister, Vlado
Buckovski, lost a vote of confidence at the Social Democrats'
October 7 convention (reftel). Sekerinska, who long had been
considered the heir apparent and who enjoyed the strong
support of President Crvenkovski (himself a former SDSM
president),won easily, receiving 456 votes of the 516
ballots cast. The SDSM congress was largely uneventful, as
Sekerinska was the sole candidate for the president's seat
and the bulk of intra-party debates had been aired and
resolved during the October convention. Sekerinska is the
first woman to hold the office of SDSM president.

CRVENKOVKSKI'S CIRCLE OF INFLUENCE


3. (SBU) In addition to a new SDSM president, the party
elected a new secretary general and 70 members to the SDSM
central board. The new secretary general, Goran Mincev, is a
relative unknown who previously served in an obscure
government position and who is widely considered to be
"Crvenkovski's man." Mincev ran against Ljubco Jordanovski,
who until recently served as Macedonia's Ambassador to the
U.S. and is a former president of the parliament. The
election of Mincev over Jordanovski, who is close to
Buckovski, signals a complete break from Buckovski's SDSM and
a further strengthening of the ties between the new SDSM
leadership and President Crvenkovski.


4. (SBU) The newly elected SDSM central board held its first
meeting on November 7 and elected three new party vice
presidents and the 15 members of the party presidency. The
new vice presidents include Jani Makraduli, a former SDSM
party whip in the parliament who is closely aligned with
Sekerinska (he was her witness at her recent marriage); Igor
Ivanovski, an MP and close confidante of Crvenkovski; and
Zoran Zaev, the mayor of the southeast Macedonian city of
Strumica and the only member of the new leadership linked to
Buckovski.

THE FUTURE OF SDSM -- ESCAPING CRVENKOVSKI'S SHADOW


5. (C) The change in party leadership not only reflects the
delegates' general dissatisfaction with what they considered
to have been the failed policies and poor poll ratings of
former SDSM president Buckovski, but also signals
Crvenkovski's attempt to tighten the party reins. Although
Sekerinska's rise to power in the party owes much to
Crvenkovski's support, that does not necessarily mean she
will repay the favor with blind loyalty to him and his
circle. Sekerinska is likely to work to escape Crvenkovski's
shadow in order to strengthen her own control over the rank
and file and implement the party reforms she has advocated.
She will have to proceed with caution, however, to avoid

SKOPJE 00001078 002 OF 002


provoking counter-reactions from Crvenkovski loyalists such
as Mincev and Ivanovski.

RELATIONS WITH THE GOVERNMENT -- AN UNORTHODOX ALLY?


6. (C) Sekerinska can probably count on initial cooperation
from the government if she chooses to work toward legislative
victories to consolidate her position. PM Gruevski was among
the first of Macedonia's political leaders to congratulate
Sekerinska after her victory and he met with her midweek to
discuss how to work constructively together and how to
conduct a more civilized public debate over policy
differences. Gruevski likely would jump at the chance to
widen any gap between Sekerinska and Crvenkovski, given his
long-standing disdain for the President and refusal to
recognize Crvenkovski's election as legitimate. Sekerinska
may therefore find a more flexible, compromise-ready
government ally will give her the leverage she needs to
increase the distance between her and Crvenkovski.

BUCKOVSKI'S FALL FROM GRACE AND A POSSIBLE OLIVE BRANCH


7. (C) The political rift between Buckovski and Crvenkovski
grew to an open feud over the past year as the latter sought
to undermine the ex-Prime Minister in order to strengthen his
own position in the party (reftel). With Buckovski no longer
a member of the party's key decision-making bodies, it is
possible that, once the SDSM constitution is modified to
permit formal faction, he will form an internal party faction
to contest Crvenkovski's influence. It is unlikely, however,
that he will risk leaving SDSM in the short-term, since he is
not sure how many party supporters would jump ship with him.
In statements to the press, he has made it clear that for now
he intends to work within SDSM for reforms that would loosen
the party's current rigid, centralized structure.
Additionally, the election of Buckovski's party ally Zaev as
an SDSM vice president could be an olive branch to the former
Prime Minister's supporters and could provide an opening for
a Buckovski-Sekerinska entente to counter Crvenkovski.
MILOVANOVIC