Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06SINGAPORE3224
2006-10-11 04:02:00
SECRET
Embassy Singapore
Cable title:  

INR A/S FORT AND GOS DISCUSS REGIONAL

Tags:  PTER PREL PGOV ECON PINR SN 
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VZCZCXRO5099
RR RUEHCHI RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHGH RUEHHM RUEHNH RUEHVC
DE RUEHGP #3224/01 2840402
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
R 110402Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY SINGAPORE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1476
INFO RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE
RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 1767
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 3967
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 5492
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON 1302
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 SINGAPORE 003224 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/05/2016
TAGS: PTER PREL PGOV ECON PINR SN
SUBJECT: INR A/S FORT AND GOS DISCUSS REGIONAL
ARCHITECTURE, THE THAI COUP, AND TERRORISM

Classified By: EP Counselor Ike Reed. Reasons 1.4(b)(d)

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 SINGAPORE 003224

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/05/2016
TAGS: PTER PREL PGOV ECON PINR SN
SUBJECT: INR A/S FORT AND GOS DISCUSS REGIONAL
ARCHITECTURE, THE THAI COUP, AND TERRORISM

Classified By: EP Counselor Ike Reed. Reasons 1.4(b)(d)


1. (S) Summary: The rise of China and India was creating a
new dynamic in the region and the United States should not
rely exclusively on its traditional alliance system to
maintain its influence, MFA Second Permanent Secretary
Bilahari Kausikan told INR Assistant Secretary Fort during
his October 1-2 visit to Singapore. ASEAN would be at the
core of the emerging regional architecture, but the
organization had to integrate more deeply to be effective in
this role, he added. Singapore was concerned about the
"Arabization" of Islam in Southeast Asia and its potential to
challenge secular authority in Indonesia and Malaysia. In a
separate meeting, Security and Intelligence Division Director
Chee Wee Kiong told A/S Fort that the coup in Thailand would
yield short-term stability, but at the cost of weakened
civilian institutions and armed forces professionalism. In a
third meeting, Internal Security Department Director Pang Kin
Kiong told A/S Fort that governments in the region had been
able to diminish the operational capabilities of Jemaah
Islamiyah, but the possibility of localized attacks remained.
End Summary.


2. (U) During his October 1-2 visit to Singapore, INR
Assistant Secretary Randall Fort met with MFA Second
Permanent Secretary Bilahari Kausikan, Security and
Intelligence Division (SID) Director Chee Wee Kiong, and
Internal Security Department (ISD) Director Pang Kin Kiong.
A/S Fort was accompanied by INR analysts John Merrill,
Charles Zenzie, Thomas King, Marc Fungard, and Emboffs.

Regional Architecture and ASEAN's Role
--------------


3. (C) Raising a familiar theme, MFA Second Permanent
Secretary Bilahari Kausikan said the rise of China and India

SIPDIS
was creating a new dynamic in the region and the United
States needed to pay more attention to these developments.
It should not rely exclusively on its traditional "hub and

spoke" alliance system to maintain its influence. He
asserted that the development of a regional architecture in
East Asia was based on national calculations of interest, not
mere sentiments. One of the main factors was the rise of
China. In a separate meeting, SID analysts explained that
Singapore and other countries in the region wanted China to
continue to grow, but also hoped to put in place other
"mechanisms" that would foster habits of cooperation in case
China became too dominant.


4. (C) MFA's Kausikan said the regional architecture had to
be built on the neutral foundation of ASEAN due to the
sensitivity of the major power relationships in Asia (namely
China and Japan). ASEAN's leadership would not be
particularly active, he admitted, and the organization needed
to integrate more deeply to be effective. Kausikan
acknowledged the difficulty of this endeavor, given the major
disparities between ASEAN's members.


5. (C) The ASEAN Charter would set the organization on the
road to greater integration. To succeed, ASEAN would have to
become multi-layered, with members moving forward at
different speeds. Kausikan identified Singapore, Indonesia,
Malaysia, Thailand, and, to a much lesser extent, the
Philippines as the leading group that would forge ahead
first. The "laggards" would be given technical assistance
and other benefits to "keep them quiet" and dissuade them
from obstructing the others.

India Seeking a Role
--------------


6. (C) SID's Chee said that India was less inward-looking
than in the past and sought a greater regional role for
itself. It was motivated by the rise of China and a desire
to secure its access to the Pacific Ocean through the South
China Sea. However, it was still unclear what India could
"bring to the table" on regional integration. Over the long
term, India's democratic system would make it more stable
than China, which could face problems if relations between
the central government and the provinces deteriorate, he
asserted.

Thai Coup: Bad for Thailand and Region
--------------


SINGAPORE 00003224 002 OF 002



7. (S) The situation in Thailand would remain stable in the
short term, said Chee. There were no indications of a
"counter-force" developing in the country to challenge the
new government, even in rural areas where former Prime
Minister Thaksin still had significant support. In the long
term, Thailand would lack a government with strong civilian
leadership, Chee commented. The government would be too
worried about the reaction of the military and the Bangkok
elite to its policies to make any major changes. At the same
time, the likely outcome of the constitutional reform would
be to weaken the institutional power of the government,
making it very difficult for a strong Prime Minister, like
Thaksin, to emerge. Chee lamented the negative impact the
coup would have on the future leaders of the Thai military;
the armed forces had been on the path to becoming more
professional over the last decade, but now they were back
into politics.


8. (C) The coup in Thailand was a setback for the country and
the region, asserted MFA's Kausikan. The Thai military and
political elite were too satisfied with themselves over the
coup. They took too insular and short-term a view of their
country's affairs. Unlike Thaksin, they didn't realize that
Thailand had to change to remain competitive economically.
The military launched the coup because Thaksin was "too
abrasive" and "went to far" in trying to build up the
countryside. He had already won several elections and would
have won again if not ousted by the military. Kausikan and
other interlocutors noted that the credibility and popularity
of the current king had not been passed down to his son. If
the military staged another coup after the son took over, it
might not have the same result.

Terrorism: Dealing with Internal and External Threats
-------------- --------------


9. (S) Singapore was concerned about external and internal
terrorist threats, noted ISD Director Pang. Over the last
several years, governments in the region had been able to
diminish the operational capabilities of Jemaah Islamiyah
(JI). By putting pressure on JI and forcing its leadership
to stay on the run, they had made it harder for JI to plan
more sophisticated and international attacks. Even if this
trend continued, the possibility of localized attacks would
remain, Pang warned. Despite the disruption of JI, Pang said
he was worried about other radical, but less ideological,
groups in the region who, in the medium to long term, were
susceptible to turning to violence. These groups were not an
immediate threat, however. Regarding Singapore, Pang noted
the GOS's success in 2001-2002 in preventing JI's bomb
attacks and detaining JI members. There were still other
individuals in Singapore who had radical "leanings," but they
were not at the "tipping point" of planning attacks or
associating with radical groups. The GOS was focused on
dealing with people espousing radical ideology and preventing
anyone from putting it into action. ISD discussed in some
detail its comprehensive rehabilitation program for terrorism
detainees.


10. (C) Southeast Asia was witnessing the "Arabization" of
Islam, asserted Kausikan. This was changing the texture of
societies and making them more religious, especially in
Indonesia and Malaysia. It was complicating politics in both
countries by forcing politicians to pay greater attention to
religion. Indonesian President Yudhoyono had to worry about
what the "Muslim ground" thought about his policies, which
made him even more cautious, he said. In Malaysia, the
political debate had shifted from whether the country would
be a strictly secular state to what kind of Islamic state it
would become. Kausikan noted the profound discomfort of many
Muslims with U.S. policies towards the Middle East. Thus, a
figure like Iran's President Ahmadinejad achieved a certain
resonance throughout the Muslim world when he was seen
standing up to the West.


11. (S) In southern Thailand, the ongoing violence was still
a local affair and there did not appear to be any foreign
involvement in the conflict, according to ISD's assessment.
However, since early 2006, ISD had noted an increase in the
frequency with which global jihadist internet sites referred
to the situation in southern Thailand, which was a worrying
trend.
FERGIN